Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
US Dollar Expected to Grinds Its Way Towards a Bottom / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Hope everyone is having a better day than the US dollar is having. I expected the USD to remain within a wedge structure, but that pattern was invalidated as will be shown in the charts below. The USD is still developing a terminal impulse, but it is going to take on the appearance of a channel or an expanding wedge (if the USD goes below 79.5).
There is too much to lose if the USD is let to decline below 80.0 for an extended period of time, but I do expect 79.5, maybe even 79.0 to be briefly tested before starting the next move up in wave [C].x of the non-limiting triangle.
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Monday, July 09, 2007
Will Japan Destroy the yen to save the US Dollar? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Peter_Schiff
As the Japanese government continues holding short-term interest rates near zero while printing yen like it is going out of style, getting out of the yen has now replaced pachinko as the national pastime for rank and file Japanese. With housewives and cab drivers debating the best techniques to exchange their yen savings for higher yielding non-yen assets, the Japanese monetary authorities are facing the prospect of the complete destruction of their own currency, subjecting their citizens to the horrors of hyperinflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
US Dollar Dependence on the Fourth of July / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Has the United States confused the cause and effect of monetary vs. military dominance? To mark Independence Day 2007, let's count the cost..."
ON THIS Fourth of July – and with the Dollar trading at a 26-year low against the British Pound – it's worth remembering that both Thomas Jefferson and George Washington implored the United States to avoid foreign entanglements.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Global Exodus from the US Dollar is in Motion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
Trading in the arcane world of foreign exchange is often akin to judging a reverse beauty contest. The trick to profitable trading is to pick the least ugly currency. Nearly all fiat or paper currencies are ugly, because the 18 of the world's top-20 central banks are inflating the money supply at double digit rates. At the moment, the world's two ugliest currencies are the Japanese yen and the US dollar.The Bank of Japan pegs its overnight loan rate at just 0.50%, in a brazen effort to devalue the yen, to boost exports abroad, and prevent an abrupt unwinding of the mushrooming “yen carry” trade. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is inflating its M3 money supply at a 13.7% annualized clip, according to private economists, which if correct, would be the fastest rate of expansion in more than 30-years.
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Thursday, June 21, 2007
Escape from the US Dollar! The Crack-up Boom Series - Part III / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ty_Andros
The Crack-up Boom series is exploring the unfolding “Indirect Exchange” (as detailed by Ludvig von Mises), that dollar holders will be using now to exit their holdings and eventually will be followed by all holders of fiat currency holdings, no matter which country is perpetrating the “fraud” of confiscation of wealth through the printing and credit creation process that all such monetary schemes evolve into. The “Crack-up Boom” will drive an inflationary global expansion to inconceivable heights over the coming years. Asset prices will skyrocket as people do what they always do when threatened; they will modify their behavior and do the things necessary for “SELF PRESERVATION” of their families, countries, economies and their wealth. Let's take a look at von Mises' description of the CRACK-UP BOOM once again:Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 16, 2007
US Push for China Currency Revalution - Be Careful What You Wish For / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
Be Careful What You Wish For
Is It Time for the Yuan to Rise?
A Tough Choice for China
Inflation is in the Eye of the Beholder
Summer Time and the Living is Easy
Be careful for what you wish, because you may get it, and sometimes as H. L. Mencken wrote, you get it good and hard. The collective brain deficit trust, otherwise known as the US Congress, wish for the Chinese to revalue their currency upwards. Today we look at why they may indeed get their wish and why it is not going to produce their desired results. We look at a possible connection between China and the recent and odd volatility in interest rates, connect the dots on inflation and the US economy.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
US Dollar, Gold , Interest Rates and Crude Oil - Four Sheets / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
An old expression is often used. Most people remain unaware of its origin. “Joe is three sheets to the wind!” means Joe is stinking drunk, smashed, plastered, intoxicated, inebriated, and who know? he might soon go meet Ralph out back (i.e. vomit). Several years ago, a learned man of letters explained to me the meaning of the phrase, which came from the world of sailing. If a sailor loses control of his sailboat, which could be from heavy imbibing of alcohol (or fishing or reading or man's favorite dance sport), the three main sails are let loose to the wind, flailing thrashing and whirling around, not pulling the boat.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 07, 2007
The Aussie Dollar Revisited / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Mario_Innecco
Three months ago we wrote about the fact that the Aussie dollar had broken through a key technical level in an article entitled Is the Aussie Dollar Ready to Take a Big Hop? . Today as we write the currency from down under is making a seventeen-year high at $0.8476. The 1990 high was at $0.8405 and the next big target will be the 1989 high at $0.8905.
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Saturday, June 02, 2007
Technical Speculator - US Dollar Nearing the $0.80 barrier, Now What? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
In this months issue, the topics are:
- Currencies: Nearing the $0.80 barrier. Now what?
- Commodities: Slowly moving up in June
- Economy: Expanding on schedule
- Global equities: Possible short-term pullback
- Equities: Small dip within main up trend
Saturday, June 02, 2007
The End of US Dollar Hegemony, Part I / Currencies / US Dollar
By: TheDailyReckoning
By: Congressman Ron Paul & The Daily Reckoning
*** The curse of living in interesting times…all paper money ends up as decoration…
*** Trophies from a monetary safari…the market is an unpredictable, headstrong beast…
*** Our dear readers prove to be smarter than us yet again…Ron Paul on FOX News…and more!
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Tuesday, May 29, 2007
FX Strategies : Canadian Dollar to Still Prevail over Aussie / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's decision from China to raise the stamp tax on securities trading to 0.3% from 0.1% is a more direct attempt to cool its runaway stock market than last week's hike in reserve requirements and interest rates. The news was announced in early afternoon NY trade, causing a retreat in US stocks and the higher yielding pairs of EURJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, NZDUSD and USDJPY. The explanation is that such increased transaction costs on equities would raise the likelihood of the much awaited "China correction", thereby triggering a repeat of the domino effect in global equities seen in late February-early March.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Pound VS Dollar Currency Analysis / Currencies / British Pound
By: Submissions
What happened ? We have had an interest rate rise and we have seen an increasing backing for another rise sometime soon.I am surprised that this has not been bullish for the pound
We have also seen some really benign inflation data coming out in America which would be dollar-negative, so why hasn't there been more pressure on dollar
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Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Head of the Trend: On Politics and Currencies / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jes_Black
Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 there was a spike in interest of opposing views generated by the Left and Right where even Hardball with Chris Mathews got parodied on Saturday Night Live because of its surge in popularity.
But polls soon showed a significant drop in interest for mainstream media outlets as independent news sites captured that attention. As the public became educated they then shared their found information with others as the Blogging revolution was born.
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Thursday, May 24, 2007
Don't Cry for the US Dollar, the Bounce in the Dollar will be Shortlived / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Bretton Woods II principal propaganda plank has been buried, with no fanfare, no eulogy on a moronic indefensible myth chapter. Asia no longer supplies credit to the United States debt monster. That mantle has been accepted by a combination of the Persian Gulf oil producers and the counterfeit press, each showing strain. The transition is truly deadly. Increasingly feisty, if not hostile, sheiks in the hotbed of the Middle East have become the last remaining pillar of USDollar support.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Significant Changes for the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen are in the Winds / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
With Paulson going to China again, it is time to look at what changes may come for the China manufacturing boom and financial/stock boom if China revalues the Yuan/RMB. Last week, China made some small moves to reign in liquidity, raising interest rates, increasing reserve requirements, and allowing the Yuan/RMB to trade is a wider band.
These moves are seen as a bit of dressing – in anticipation of Paulson's visit. Clearly, a major topic of that meeting will be to address increasing pressures for US trade sanctions with China. China, on the other hand, has serious problems with their bubbles – notably the stock bubbles – and has already been trying to modestly tighten liquidity for its markets.
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
The US Dollar Isn't Dead Yet! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Clif_Droke
To hear the talk from the mainstream press you'd think the dollar's demise was imminent. Everyday is becoming a repetition of a theme that we've actually been hearing off and on since 2004, namely, the collapse of the U.S. dollar. But as we've chronicled here many times in the past, whenever the bearish factor gets a little too loud on the dollar's weakness, a period of stability and/or strength begins. That's exactly the point along the cycle the dollar is in now.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
The Decoy of the Falling US Dollar Revisited / Currencies / US Interest Rates
By: Professor_Emeritus
I have received the following letter from a reader of my column:
Mr. Fekete:
I have been reading your work for a number of years and always look forward to your thoughts, particularly when they run counter to conventional wisdom. In your latest piece you suggest that the falling dollar (or rising yen) actually strengthens the yen carry trade. My chartwork argues otherwise, and your logic escapes me. I would welcome clarification of one particular paragraph of yours, especially on the last sentence that, I believe, is central to your analysis. You wrote:
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Thursday, May 17, 2007
Strong US Dollar is in US Interest / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
It seems that in order to qualify for the job, U.S. Treasury Secretaries must be able to recite ‘A strong dollar is in the interest of the United States' anytime and anywhere. Robert Rubin, Treasury Secretary during the second half of the 1990s, was highly credible when he said it.
However, when Secretary John Snow uttered the same words, the ritual had been diluted to providing the appropriate sound bite to the media. Hank Paulson, successor to Snow and current Treasury Secretary, is a straight talker, but knows that his job comes with what amounts to a marketing responsibility. In the meantime, investors are at a loss what the U.S. policy towards a dollar truly is; there seems to be a disconnect between what ought to be in U.S. interest, and what current policies promote.
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Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Euro Currency Toast and The Race to Debase, Part II / Currencies / Euro
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The €500 note is more bling than a gold-plated Uzi. No wonder it's become so popular with gangsters in Moscow ..."
FOREIGN AFFAIRS magazine just called for the "end of national currency". Maybe it matters.
After all, " Foreign Affairs is the most important and influential journal of international relations in the world," as Cryptogon.com points out.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
US Dollar Bear Market 5 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
Adam Hamilton writes : With the headline US stock indexes doing so well this year, they are understandably absorbing trader attention and news coverage like a black hole. It is always exciting to see major new round numbers achieved and new highs carved. But other markets outside of this limelight are not frozen in stasis.
In particular the US dollar, seemingly totally forgotten in the dark shadow the stock markets are casting, has been exceedingly interesting. While you wouldn't know it from the mainstream financial media thanks to very little commentary on it, the US dollar's secular bear market is very much alive and well. In fact today it is on the verge of testing major major new lows.
If the dollar indeed continues on its stealthy downward trajectory and hits these new lows, the implications will probably be profound. Especially for American investors and speculators, the dollar is the linchpin of everything financial. When foreign investors see new dollar lows, will the massive inflows of capital they pump into our financial markets waver? What would this mean for US stocks, bonds, and interest rates?
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