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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Deconstruction of UK General Election 2015 Result - Why Opinion Pollsters Got it Wrong / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This time last week the people of Britain were going to the polls in what was unanimously proclaimed by the mainstream media as a too close to call general election, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were virtually neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a a handful of seats ahead would still lose be default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared to be destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up to the polls closed at 10pm. Instead, the reality proved to be the exact opposite as instead of the Ed Milliband walking into No 10 we had David Cameron texting the removal vans to do an about turn as he raced back to Downing Street before the locks were changed.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

UK House Prices Forecast Conservative Election Win 2015 - Video / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the opinion pollsters, academics, pseudo-analysts (journalists) and book makers ALL got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong right upto the close of the polls, who collectively forecast that the only workable outcome would be one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP. Instead the actual result surprised all by delivering an outright majority Conservative government that not even the exit poll forecast and which only became apparent after about 600 of the 650 results were declared.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Pollsters Launch Inquiry into Worthless Wrong UK Election 2015 Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Survation, YouGov, Populous, ICM, Ipsos Mori, ComRes, Ashcroft and the rest regurgitated at length in the mainstream press ALL got their opinion polling for the UK general election badly wrong, not just a little wrong but to such an extent that they were forecasting the exact opposite in terms of which major party could go on to form the next government as illustrated by the most popular opinion polls to seats forecasting sites:

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ElectionOracle

Monday, May 11, 2015

Why Labour Lost Election 2015, Who will be Next New Labour Leader? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Labour suffered its worst defeat in over 30 years, putting the party back to where it stood under the disastrous leadership of Michael Foot, and even worse when considering the blood bath in Scotland where the Labour party was born, which saw the Scottish Nationalists take every Labour seat bar 1. The election result has shocked about half the electorate whilst surprising the rest as what amounted to daily worthless opinion polls had led the nation to believe that this was a neck and neck election race, one in which where even if Labour had won far fewer seats than the Conservatives then Labour were still likely to go on and form next government as illustrated below:

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

England's Voters Tell SNP Scottish National Socialists to STFU - UK Election Result Analysis / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For over a year the people of Britain have had Scottish nationalism, one of me, me, me, want, want, want, demand, demand, demand rammed down their throats, and seeing the Scottish Nationalists set to wipe out Labour in Scotland and also heavily promoting backing for a weak Milliband government in Westminister, that would be dancing to Alex Salmond's SNP tune at huge further detriment to England's hard working tax payers who already are forced to pick up the bill for a huge disparity in public spending per capita of over £2,000 per person per year. Said through the ballot box that enough is enough and VOTED NO to what would have amounted to an SNP dictatorship by voting for an Anti- Scottish National Socialism government into power in Westminister so as to completely neutralise the Labour bloodbath in Scotland, as Labour socialism would have been bad enough never mind Scottish National Socialism!

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

The Guardian UK Election Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Guardian and the rest of the mainstream press have effectively wasted tens of millions of £'s on worthless opinion polls that got it so badly wrong that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party was most likely to be able to form the next government. This is an analysis of The Guardian's election seats forecasts that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

ElectionForecast.co.uk Seats Forecast vs Actual UK Election Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

'You know nothing' said Channel 4's John Snow to the opinion pollsters, all of whom got their polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party would go on to form the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectionForecast.co.uk election seats forecasting site that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Electoral Calculus UK Election 2015 Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

All of the opinion pollsters got their UK polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the party that would end up losing by 100 seats as the one that stood the greatest probability of forming the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectoralCalculus.co.uk election seats forecasting website that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

May2015_com UK General Election Seats Forecast vs Outcome / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The opinion pollsters for the 2015 UK general election were not just off by a few seats but got their polling very badly wrong to the extent of which party(s) could form the next government. This article is an analysis of the New Statesman's May2015.com popular election forecasting website that produced near daily updates of the seats per party forecast based on the opinion polls, that I tracked during 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Nate Silver Badly Wrong AGAIN on UK General Election Forecast - 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

U.S. Election forecasting guru Nate Silver's forecasting firm http://fivethirtyeight.com, that got the 2015 UK general election just as badly wrong as he the previous 2010, have been busy putting up a smoke screen of excuses as to why they got it wrong once more, as a case of when they get it right claim praise but when wrong blames others such as the opinion polls - Its your methodology stupid!

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ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

UK Stocks, Bonds, Even Housing Market Celebrate Conservative Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Financial markets relief at having avoided a Labour-SNP catastrophe triggered sharp rallies across UK markets with the FTSE closing up 2.3% at 7,046 and closing in on its all time high of a month ago of 7,122. UK bonds also surged with the 10 year bond yield falling sharply to 1.8% from just above 2%. And even average house prices added 1.6% following publication of Halifax data for April with sterling strength continuing from publication of last nights exit poll.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

UK House Prices Correctly Forecast / Predicted Conservative Election Win 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the opinion pollsters, academics, pseudo-analysts (journalists) and book makers ALL got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong right upto the close of the polls, who collectively forecast that the only workable outcome would be one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP. Instead the actual result surprised all by delivering an outright small majority Conservative government that not even the exit poll forecast and which only became apparent after about 600 of the 650 results were declared.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Labour Crisis - Call for independent inquiry into election defeat / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Submissions

Reacting on Labour's heavy defeat Neal Lawson, chair of the Compass pressure group has said:

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ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Conservative Win 2015 UK General Election, BBC Forecast of 329 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With 47 seats out of 650 seats still to declare the BBC for the past half hour or so has been forecasting that the Conservatives now look set to win an outright majority of 329 seats, against Labour on 233, whilst the Lib Dems face a catastrophic result of just 8 seats, the SNP wiping out Labour in Scotland on a landslide win of 56 seats and UKIP trailing on just 2 despite a huge swing in their favour from both Labour and Conservative.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Conservative Outright Majority Election 2015 Win Possible / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Increasingly as the night has progressed where rather than one of the Exit Poll being wrong by over forecasting the number of seats the Conservatives would winl (316). Instead with 344 of 650 results declared (5.15am), it is becoming increasingly likely that the Conservatives may well just be able to pull off an outright majority (323+), this is as a consequence of the continuing stronger than forecast swing from Labour to Conservatives than indicated by the Exit Poll.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, May 08, 2015

Nick Clegg Lib Dem Leader Wins Sheffield Hallam Surviving Lib Dem Bloodbath - Opinion Polls Wrong / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the Lib Dem blood bath continues to unfold across the UK (at 4.55am) that the BBC forecasts could result with a catastrophic loss of 47 seats to just 10. Instead, the Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg has managed to hold onto his affluent Sheffield Hallam seat on a majority of 2,353 votes despite the exit poll, and opinion polls turning out to be wrong.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

British Pound Soars on Exit Poll Conservative Election Win / ElectionOracle / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The British Pound has soared following the release of the Exit Poll that forecast a defacto Conservative election win on 316 seats as part of a coalition with either the Lib Dems (10) or the DUP (8). Sterling currently stands at £/$1.5415 against the U.S. Dollar, lifting the GBP towards the upper end of its recent range and indicates to expect a similar surge for other markets such as stocks and bonds on tomorrows open.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Exit Poll Forecasts Conservative UK Election 2015 Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm, the Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2015 that forecasts seat projections for the Conservatives on 316, Labour on 239, Lib Dems on 10 and the SNP on 58 which implies that the Conservatives have won the election and can either go it alone with support from the DUP on 324 or continue the Coalition with the Lib Dems on 326.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

UK Election Ignores BREXIT, GREXIT, Significant Economic Risks / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: GoldCore

  • UK election today expected to yield “hung parliament”
  • Election not seen marked decline in pound as was the case in run up to last election
  • Election ‘chaos’ could trigger a ‘Lehman moment’ for pound
  • Recent history shows Labour victory not inherently bad for sterling
  • Concern that Miliband’s Labour closer to that of Brown than Blair
  • BOE warn deficits could “trigger a deterioration in market sentiment towards the UK”
  • “Punch and Judy” politics ignores BREXIT, GREXIT and significant economic risk
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ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 07, 2015

UK General Election Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of the election, the EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have hardly budged for the past 2 months, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 10 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

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