Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Last Thursdays killing of Pro-REMAIN Labour MP Jo Cox by a right wing extremist has had a dramatic effect on the EU referendum, where a poll lead for LEAVE has evaporated to give REMAIN a marginal lead that this momentum analysis of the most recent polling data attempts to illuminate.
Monday, June 20, 2016
The Economic Reality of BrExit / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The United Kingdom will shortly vote either leave or remain in the European Union. This is the most important European event of this century since a vote to leave will likely have important domino effects for the rest of Europe.
A recent poll showed that if the UK could keep free trade with EU nations, the British people would vote overwhelmingly to leave the EU. To drum up support for staying in the EU, The UK Government and quasi government agencies, like the IMF and OECD, have issue continuous warnings about the costs of such a divorce. The IMF recently reiterated its forecasts that BREXIT would have a significant negative effect on the UK economy with a drop in GDP anywhere between 1% and 9% over the long term. The reality is that Brexit would probably only have a minor initial impact on trade or GDP and, on the contrary, would open up vast possibilities for the UK to exploit trade relations with other faster growing regions of the world without having to reach complex trade agreements that satisfy the vested interests of the other 28 members of the EU.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 20, 2016
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Andy_Sutton
Last time our piece focused on what has come to be known as 'escape velocity' and how an aeronautical term has come to be used to provide some boost to the perception of the USEconomy when in fact it actually has noelocity whatsoever. This week we're going to take a look at another term, and even though it is an amalgam of two words, it still has profound meaning.
Monday, June 20, 2016
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Baroness Warsi, a mostly from the sidelines LEAVE campaigner has now apparently abandoned the cause for FREEDOM for Britain from an emerging european super state because of that naughty Nigel Farage's poster of last week that highlighted the migration crisis that Europe faces. However, as I have often voiced that these converts to the BrExit cause could well turn out to be 'manchurian candidates' who in the last days of the referendum campaign would publically switch in an attempt to do fatal damage to LEAVEs cause.
Monday, June 20, 2016
Brexit Rules The Week / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: John_Rubino
The Brexit vote is this Thursday, so nothing else matters until then. And polls, just to make it even more stressful, have it neck and neck. See Brexit poll tracker back to even at 44-44.
While we’re waiting, let’s consider some related questions:
Would leaving the EU be good or bad for Britain in the short run? A lot of definite-sounding opinion is being tossed around on this count — see ‘Negative and substantial’ impact on UK if it leaves EU: IMF — but it’s important to take such things with a grain of salt. No one has the slightest idea how such a divorce would go and if its immediate impact would be positive or negative.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 19, 2016
Brexit Fear-Mongering / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Stephen_Lendman
Sunday, June 19, 2016
Reason Brexit Debate Has Gotten So Out of Hand is Nobody Understands What it’s About / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The Brexit campaigns have started anew in the UK, and from what I’ve seen here from left field barely a thing has changed since the murder of MP Jo Cox. Neither side has any qualms about using her death to make their respective points. The main, and perhaps only real, point is that nobody understands what the vote is about. Jo Cox, bless her soul, didn’t either.
This lack of understanding is also, at the same time, the reason why the debate has gotten so out of hand. Nobody seems to understand it’s not about Cameron or Nigel Farage, or Michael Gove vs Boris Johnson, it’s about voting for or against the EU, for or against Juncker and Tusk and five other unelected presidents having a say in one’s life.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 16, 2016
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Contrary to press stories of civil wars, most of the migration (90%) into the UK has been purely economic that includes to study, many of whom turn out to be bogus students who instead are here to work illegally and for permanent settlement.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A string of recent opinion polls such as Opiniun giving LEAVE a 19 point lead or ORB's giving LEAVE a 10% lead are not being reflected by the bookmakers betting odds. And even if we ignore some of these more extreme polls because there is no way LEAVE is going to win by 19% or even 10%, then still as my recent analysis illustrates that LEAVE have been nudging into the lead which is just NOT being reflected by the betting that is still heavily skewed in favour of REMAIN.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Polish Migrants Fear BrExit But Complain of NHS Waiting Lists, Poor Quality of Healthcare - C4 News / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The focus of Tuesdays Channel 4 News programme was on the potential impact of a Brexit on Poland and Polish migrants in the UK. The key point of note was the degree to which Poland has benefited from membership of the European Union with countless examples of near wholly funded by EU infrastructure projects right across Poland that have literally turned desolate regions into modern landscapes populated by new airports, roads, bridges, parks and cultural attraction centres that the EU excels at funding so as to put its blue flag stamp all over the regions.
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
The Brexit Game - Boris Johnson vs David Cameron EU Referendum Zombies / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Adnaan_Walayat
With EU referendum opinion polls virtually neck and neck with everything to play for so in this respect here is our own highly addictive 'BrExit Game', which is FREE, a first person shooter featuring BrExit hero Boris Johnson doing battle against hordes of David Cameron propaganda zombies, battling for votes and accruing activists so as to buy votes gaining fire power and to unlock and explore more areas of the electoral map.
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
EU Referendum: LEAVE Opinion Poll Lead of 51% to 49% Whilst Bookmaker Odds Still Strongly Favour REMAIN / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The government and ruling establishment's Operation fear appears to be having the exact opposite effect as bogus reports on a daily basis that paint a picture for a BrExit doom resulting in REMAIN pulling ahead of LEAVE, instead it is the heavily financially disadvantaged LEAVE that has now nudged into a LEAD over REMAIN as an analysis of recent opinion polls illustrate.
Monday, June 13, 2016
REMAIN Support Collapses as BrExit, LEAVE Jumps into 19 Point EU Referendum Lead / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With the EU referendum vote just 10 days away, the latest opinion poll to be released now gives LEAVE an incredulous 19 point lead over REMAIN (52% to 33% with 15% don't knows). Which implies a complete and utter collapse of the REMAIN vote that had until literally days ago held a typical lead of between 6% and 12% over LEAVE for the past 6 months.
Monday, June 13, 2016
The BrExit Game - Boris Johnson LEAVE vs David Cameron REMAIN Propaganda Zombies / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Adnaan_Walayat
Here is our fun to play and highly addictive FREE 'The BrExit Game', a special EU referendum first person shooter featuring BrExit hero Boris Johnson doing battle against a horde of David Cameron zombies, battling for votes by defeating the propaganda zombies and accruing activists so as to buy votes gaining fire power and to unlock and explore more areas of the electoral map.
Sunday, June 12, 2016
Free Trade, Brexit, and the WTO / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: MISES
Carmen Elena Dorobăț writes: The debate surrounding the EU referendum in Britain, scheduled in two weeks, and the fate of the UK outside of the EU, is now in full swing. Unsurprisingly, little of substance has been said so far on the issue. One would expect that both sides would be better prepared with arguments to support their cause, but many aspects discussed have not only been erroneous, but have appealed to people’s fear rather than their intelligence. Both the Remain and the Leave camps have failed to show how either decision would enhance economic and political freedom; instead, they have tried to one-up each other in the preservation and growth of the existing welfare state, military complex, and bureaucratic apparatus.
Sunday, June 12, 2016
Real EU Immigration into UK DOUBLE ONS Statistics - National Insurance No's / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press has belatedly been waking up to the fact that the UK governments official migration statistics compiled by the ONS under report real permanent immigration from the EU by at least 50% per year! For instance ONS EU immigration stats since 2011 saw a net 1.1 million european union migrants permanently settle in the UK. However during this same time period 2.2 million National Insurance numbers were issued to european migrants. I have been flagging this huge persistent disparity in numbers for several years now that illustrates that the official immigration statistics just cannot be trusted!
Sunday, June 12, 2016
EU Referendum Forecast, REMAIN Panics on BrExit LEAVE Shock 10 Point Lead / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The REMAIN camp has been thrown into a state of PANIC as the latest opinion poll now puts LEAVE in a 10 point lead. The opinion poll by ORB for The Independent puts LEAVE on 55% and REMAIN on 45%, which compares against an ORB poll of just a week ago that had REMAIN ahead on 52% against LEAVE on 40% and 8% undecided.
So clearly the REMAIN campaigns 'operation fear' has failed that saw establishment voices spelling out Brexit disaster on a daily basis from the Bank of England to billionaires to politicians with their snouts in Brussels trough, to even President Obama making a panic visit to preach to the British people to STAY within the European Union as being in the best interests for America, all of which has apparently had the OPPOSITE effect as LEAVE's dad army-esk campaign headed by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove has managed to successfully repel the Euro-phile attacks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 11, 2016
Last ONS UK Migration Statistics Before EU Referendum Leave or Remain Vote / ElectionOracle / Immigration
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest ONS data release continues to show an ACCELERATION in the rate of immigration into Britain with net migration of +333k in the year to December 2015 added to Britain's population, an INCREASE of 20k on the preceding year which illustrates that immigration is STILL ACCELERATING. Which literally translates into a DAILY flood of near 1000 people turning up on Britain's shores and demanding housing, education, school places, jobs and benefits such as tax credits, housing and child benefits, health & social services that have been buckling and breaking as illustrated by social housing that in most cities has been in a state of total paralysis for many years now.
Friday, June 10, 2016
UK Immigration Crisis Explained, Migrant Flows 1970 to 2015, EU Referendum / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Immigration is one of the primary drivers or triggering the EU Referendum as many deem it to be out of control as membership of the European Union means free movement for residency and work which is preventing the UK from controlling its borders for over a decade now as the UK finds itself buffeted by ever greater waves of migrant flows from Europe each year. All adding to those that came before with total immigration from the EU since 2000 now having passed the 5 million mark. All whilst both Labour and then the Conservative governments promises to be bring immigration under control having amounted to nothing, as the government has NO control over EU migration, which thus continues on an accelerating trend trajectory. Therefore voting to REMAIN within the EU ensures EU migration will continue to increase putting added pressure each year on housing, jobs and social services such as schools, NHS and the benefits system, virtually all of which are already at critical breaking point levels.
Thursday, June 09, 2016
Brexit Fears are Deliberately Overblown, David Camerons Game of Fear / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: John_Browne
As the June 23rd BREXIT (the UK-wide referendum to leave the EU) vote draws near, the polls indicate a close result. Those urging a vote for the UK to remain inside the EU are suggesting increasingly dire economic consequences that would follow a yes vote by the British people to leave. Voices from London, Brussels, and Washington have all put immense pressure on British voters to bend to the will of the elites. To listen to their commentary one would think that apocalypse was just around the corner. But is there any substance to their warnings?