Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, May 11, 2017
Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs - Topping Pattern Or Just Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Stock Market Interesting Sell-Off Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The stock market had an interesting day today with the indices down in the morning, up midday, and rallying right to within an hour of the close, but could not get through the highs, and then a sharp sell-off ensured. They did hold secondary support, came back very sharply, and finished near the highs for the day.
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Thursday, May 11, 2017
Fast Charts and World Markets: $18 TRILLION, A Bold Forecast, Inflation(?) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
See our global market charts that cover $18 TRILLION, inflation(?), and a truly bold forecast.
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Wednesday, May 10, 2017
SPX Showing Weakness, but No Breakdown, Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The SPX futures have been testing yesterday’s low, but no breakdown, yet. I am still treating the peak at 2403.87 as wave [a] of 5. Since it is an (a)-(b)-(c) wave already, it may be complete, but we will not have confirmation until SPX declines beneath the Wave 4 low at 2379.75.
ZeroHedge reports, “Just as the reflation trade appeared to be finding its latest wind, after a modest rise in oil prices over the past 24 hours (now that Andurand has finished liquidating his book) and a halt to the commodity rout in China, Trump threw the markets for a loop again with his firing of James Comey, which has implications on everything from Trump's tax policy (most likely delayed due to more infighting between, and within, the two parties) to US geopolitics (will Trump launch another attack, this time against N. Korea to deflect from this scandal?)”
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Wednesday, May 10, 2017
Nasdaq 100 Rockets to New All-Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The stock market indices had a very interesting session. The Nasdaq 100 had a big gap up, and a sharp run in the morning, taking it up to over 5690, and the S&P 500 popped to 2404, both reaching new all-time highs. In the afternoon, they had a slow, 5-wave constructive pullback, although news of North Korea doing additional missile test caused the market to take a big hit. In the last fifteen minutes, they snapped back just as sharply, and actually finished up on the day on the Nasdaq 100, while the Dow and S&P 500 finished slightly lower in the red.
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Tuesday, May 09, 2017
Stock Market Option's Timing Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines that were neutral while in positive territory after more convergence. The thick red line showed a down tick that was below the red trend line and below the blue trend line. [The thick red line above the red and blue trend lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start and below them has the potential of being serious trouble.]
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Tuesday, May 09, 2017
Stock Market May 8-11… High or Low? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
In the 4/17/17 Market Update I wrote of a low-low-high interval pointing to a high on 5/11/17.
The lows of July 8, 1932 and December 9, 1974 were arguably the two most important lows of the 20th century. They lie 15,494 days apart. Adding an additional 15,494 days to the 1974 low points to a high on May 11, 2017.
In the 4/24/17 Market Update I wrote of a Hybrid Lindsay forecast pointing to a high in the period May 8-11.
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Monday, May 08, 2017
Stocks Are Back At Record High, But Will They Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, May 08, 2017
Stock Market B Wave Still Favored / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: The correction from 2400 on 3/08 continues, possibly as the top of the B-wave.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, May 06, 2017
US Stock Market Resumes Uptrends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The market started the week at SPX 2384. After a rally to SPX 2394 on Monday the market pulled back to 2380 on Wednesday, and retested it on Thursday. Then the market rallied to end the week SPX 2399, its highest level since March 1st. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, the PCE, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and the ADP. On the uptick: personal income, auto sales, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit; plus weekly jobless claims, the trade deficit and the unemployment rate all improved. Next week’s highlights: the CPI/PPI, retail sales and wholesale/business inventories.
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Friday, May 05, 2017
Shifting World Economies Present Massive Opportunities for Investors / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017
Recent news from the World Economic Forum (weforum.org) has outlined recent core global economic functions and relationships (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017). We found this interesting in both factual data and interpreted data and we wanted to present our analysis to you, our valued members.
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Friday, May 05, 2017
Stock Market Volatile Consolidation Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The stock market indices had a very topsy-turvy volatile session. The day started out with a hard gap down, they bounced hard, came down again with another bounce up, came down one more time around the noon hour even harder, and then rallied for the rest of the day. They consolidated late in the day and firmed up to close mixed on the day.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 6.43 at 20,951.47. The S&P 500 was up 1.39 at 2389.52. The Nasdaq 100 was up 1.16 at 5626.32.
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Thursday, May 04, 2017
Stock Market Largest Bubble Since 1983 - Why to Think Like a Surfer / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
I took up surfing in my early 30s.It didn’t last long. But I learned a tremendous amount from the experience (least of which is that I suck at surfing).
Well, it’s time to think like a surfer.
Your sole focus is to catch the wave.
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Thursday, May 04, 2017
Gold, Stocks, Bonds, Currencies Best Investment Practices / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017
How does one construct a portfolio in an era of seemingly ever rising and highly correlated asset prices? Years of asset prices moving higher has changed both retail and institutional investors; it has changed the industry; and, in my humble opinion, those changes spell trouble. The prudent investor might want to take note to be prepared.
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Thursday, May 04, 2017
Stock Market Positive Expectations, But Will Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, May 04, 2017
Stock Market Pull Back Shallow, More to Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The market is gradually becoming oversold with much resistance. The cycles suggest a low no later than around Friday this week. May 17th is the next three week cycle top and is also a Saturn turn. Waves tend to equal each other in time and price, especially an "a-b-c" type advance. We are in wave 'b' of that advance. This would suggest a low late in the week probably somewhere near to SPX 2361/62 and a final top (wave 'c') on May 17th near to 2431 (see chart below).
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Wednesday, May 03, 2017
Stock Market 'Sell in May and Go Away' in 9 out of 11 Countries Makes Sense to Do So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Most people are probably aware of the saying "sell in May and go away". This popular seasonal Wall Street truism implies that the market's performance is far worse in the six summer months than in the six winter months.
Numerous studies have been undertaken particularly with respect to US stock markets, which confirm the relative weakness of the stock market in the summer.
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Wednesday, May 03, 2017
Brace Yourself, This Ponzi Scheme Will Result in the Greatest Stock Market Crash in History / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By Peter Ginelli : Every day the markets seem to be going up regardless of the news headlines about the current ominous state of world affairs or even poor economic data. Investors seem to be oblivious to the fundamentals that every market requires in order to find a direction.
We all remember the times when the markets would carefully consider the daily geopolitical risks, news headline and economic data before they would react to the upside or the downside. But nowadays, multiple terror attacks in Paris and other parts of the world, terrible economic data released prior to the market opening, or even ridiculous P/E ratios, does nothing in shaking confidence in the markets. It almost appears as if common sense is absent in investors' decision-making. The dangerous prevailing wisdom seems to be "buy, buy, buy”, no matter if the world is going to hell in a hand basket or the economy is getting flushed down the toilet.
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Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Stock Market VIX Gets Jammed to a New 10-year Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
VIX was jammed down to 9.90 toward the close today. This makes a new low not seen since December 15, 2006. That also means that Super Cycle Wave (b) may just be finishing in VIX.
I have to caution that the decline may not be complete, even though I have labeled it so. Today is just 4 days shy of a probable 540-week Super Cycle in the VIX, divisible by 4.3 and 3.1416. The normal Super Cycle in VIX is 516 weeks.
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Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Stock Market Due for Minor Pull Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Over 2 weeks ago, I was looking for a top on April 26th and another on May 1. Today's top appears to be a secondary top, which is pointing down in the coming days. My best guess is a move to 2356/57 SPX by Tuesday this week, and by Thursday or Friday, a move down to as low as the 2344/47 area covering or filling the recent gaps. Another move back up to new highs by around May 16th or 17th should be it for the intermediate term with a major 18 month low beckoning in early to mid August of this year.
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