Thursday, May 03, 2018

Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As you probably know, “Sell in May and go away’ states that the stock market is seasonally weak from May – September. We already demonstrated that it isn’t as weak as investors think in this study.

Some investors believe that May-September is not seasonally bearish IF…

1. The stock market falls from January – April, AND…
2. There’s no recession that year (a recession in 2018 is highly unlikely).

Thursday, May 03, 2018

A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Since roughly the middle of January of this year we’ve seen some big changes in character taking place in many different areas of the markets. After nearly two years of low volatility, which is much easier to take, volatility has come back with a vengeance and doesn’t seem to be slowing down much. Its been most obvious in the stock markets, but now the US dollar’s volatility has spiked which may be suggesting something is in the wind. What that something is can be anyone’s guess, but something changed in mid January of this year.

Tonight I would like to show you some old long term charts I built out four years or so ago after the top in the PM complex was established. Some of the longer term subscribers will remember them as they had a long term bearish tone to them if they played out. It’s been a long time since I posted some of these charts because for the last several years nothing much has changed which maybe coming to an end.

Thursday, May 03, 2018

Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI

Conventional Wall Street wisdom says "rising rates are bad for stocks." Let's put that belief to a test.

One of the big financial news stories on April 24 was that the 10-year Treasury yield hit 3% for the first time since 2014.

The other big financial news story was that the DJIA closed 424 points lower on that day.

As you probably know, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that investors will sell stocks in favor of bonds when yields reach an attractive level. So, it's not surprising that many pundits blamed the DJIA's triple-digit decline on rising bond yields.

Thursday, May 03, 2018

Global Stock Markets “Turn-of-the-Month” Effect Returns Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Dimitri_Speck

In Other Global Markets the “Turn-of-the-Month” Effect Generates Even Bigger Returns than in the US

Dear Investor,

the “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena.

It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors. 

The effect has been examined extensively in the US market. In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown the extent of the “turn-of-the-month” effect in the eleven largest international stock markets.

Thursday, May 03, 2018

The Case for Gold in the Era of Financial Virtual Reality / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_J_Kosares

On the holodeck the markets are telling us something but we know not what

"John Locke, the British philosopher whose ideas fuelled the American Revolution, had a theory of knowledge and perception, which I always found annoying. Asked if we have an idea of the substance behind our perceptions, he said we had 'no such clear idea at all, and therefore signify nothing by the word substance but only an uncertain supposition of we know not what'. The philosophical debate has moved on in the centuries since Locke wrote. But his idea captures well the uneasy state of the world's financial markets. They are driven in the short run by perceptions, not reality. If many have the wrong impression, markets will move on that. But in the long run, markets move on matters of substance. And at present the economic substance is a 'something we know not what.'" - John Authers, Financial Times

Thursday, May 03, 2018

4 Biotech Stock Movers to Watch / Companies / BioTech

By: Harry_Boxer

Biotechs continue to dominate our list of top charts to watch.

CASI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CASI) rose 48 cents, or 7.2%, to $7.14 on 773,700 shares Tuesday. The move came on no news, although the stock soared in early April on news that China's Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) would convene a panel to discuss its cancer therapy, Evomela. The stock has been flagging since that move, but may be positioning to break out, with the next target at $10.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Trumps Next Target, the Great Amazon / Tech Stocks Tax Dodge / Companies / Taxes

By: Richard_Mills

Donald Trump’s enmity towards Amazon and its founder Jeff Bezos, the richest man on Earth, has indeed been going on for a long time, and it’s easy to frame the tiff as two billionaires marking their territory like two pit bulls in a fight ring.
After all, Trump is a billionaire capitalist too, and it’s not as though he hasn’t done his fair share of tax dodging.

But the success of Amazon and other giant tech companies - Facebook, Twitter, Google, Apple and Microsoft come to mind - does run up against Trump’s vision of America, where jobs are created or brought back to the United States, corporate taxes are kept low and companies pay them, and trade deals are fairly negotiated that do not put US firms at a disadvantage. It’s all part of “Making America Great Again”. Amazon represents the new economy where commerce is done online, the business is global, and tens of thousands of employees work for Amazon outside of the US.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

The Evils Of Leveraged ETF’s and Those That Suggest Them / Companies / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Avi_Gilburt

As some of you may know me by now, I run a trading room with over 3500 traders, have over 450 money manager clients, have over 23,000 followers on Seeking Alpha, and have the 6th largest service out of the 169 that are offered in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace (even though I am a technical analyst on that fundamental analysis web site). I have certainly come a long way since I first opened the doors to my trading room a little over 6 years ago.

During the 6 years I have been running my trading room, I have seen what traders do right and what traders do wrong. One of the biggest pitfalls I have seen that trip traders and investors up is the inappropriate use of leverage.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Stock Market on FOMC Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are trading in a narrow range around yesterday’s closing value. The FOMC concludes its meeting today and only leaves a policy statement for its trouble. It is possible that the policy statement may be used to shape expectations about the course of future rate hikes.

Be prepared for more upside as the Cycles Model suggests a “bump” higher before turning down. Short-term resistance at 2664.73 may be the target for today’s action, but a run at the 50-day Moving Average at 2688.85 isn’t out of the question.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Two Charts That Argue Inflation, NOT Deflation, is Now the Dominant Trend / Economics / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are moving into their first MAJOR inflationary shift in TEN years.

Perhaps the single best metric for measuring inflation vs. deflation in the bond markets is the TIPs to Long US Treasury ratio. In its simplest rendering when this ratio rises, it means inflation is on the rise. When it falls it means deflation is dominating the bond markets.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

UK Pension Funds Performance Deteriorates in Q1 2018 / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: MoneyFacts

New data from the latest Moneyfacts UK Personal Pension Trends Treasury Report has revealed deteriorating pension fund performance in Q1 2018 at a time when members of auto-enrolment schemes are seeing their mandatory minimum contribution rates rise from 1% to 3%.

The report shows how after a run of positive gains in the previous nine quarters the average pension fund registered a loss for the first time since Q3 2015, falling by 3.8%.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term Buy Signal, Short term Mixed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan updates his gold and silver charts.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark : For data wonks like me, the annual Yearbooks from various gold and silver consultancies make for fun reading. You can always find little gems about what’s going on in the markets, and sometimes you can spot changes in trends early on. Seeing a compelling chart, especially one that’s not been widely reported, is almost as exciting as seeing my wife in a short skirt on date night.

Well, I’ve got a series of charts for you that point to a silver trend that is so entrenched in its development, so inevitable in its outcome, so inescapable in its consequences that it comes as close as one can get to a guarantee. And once fully underway, it will have major implications for the silver price, along with the availability of investment metal.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

UK Local Elections 2018 Shock Predictions! Labour London Gains Offset by Regional Losses / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The mainstream press backed up by the polling industry has once more built themselves up into a frenzy of reporting with much certainty that the Conservatives are heading for an electoral blood bath in the local elections, with the London epicentre rippling out across the regions as Corbyn's Labour party is expected to build on last years shock General Election results that crippled Theresa May's government which has had the effect of throwing the Tories into a state of panic whilst many Labour councils are already counting their electoral chickens before their hatched. All whilst forgetting that the same pollsters and pundits got last years general election very badly wrong! And so one has to beg the question are they all badly wrong AGAIN? Which would be for SIXTH ELECTION IN A ROW!

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Warren Buffet: Stock Market Lesson In Passive Investment / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Christopher_Quigley

Every year I religiously read Warren Buffett’s letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. I find them a treat,
a mine of information and knowledge. It always inspires me to review, in his famous introduction, how each year since 1965 he has been able to achieve such spectacular returns with a relatively simple long term investment strategy. Over the past 52 years Berkshire has returned a staggering 20.9% compound annual return. Thus 1,000 dollars invested with Mr. Buffett at the outset of his career is now worth 11,144,735 dollars. And what is the over-riding advice he gives to enable such fortunes to be made? The secret is stated boldly on page 13 of the 2017 newsletter:

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Bitcoin and Friends: The Next Five Years/The Coming DEX-verse / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mark_Blair

Remember when Bitcoin was anonymous?
Remember when ASICs were The Big Noo Thing?
Remember when it hadn’t occurred to us that (centralised) exchanges might pass our data to Tax Departments?

Tuesday, May 01, 2018

What Can Alchemists Say About Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Alchemists are precious metals experts, aren’t they? So let’s see what we can learn from the latest issue of the Alchemist, the LBMA’s quarterly journal.

Silver Linings
Silver has been always in gold’s shadow. Could the accelerated and synchronized global growth finally boost silver? In his article, Jonathan Butler offers two arguments in favor of higher silver prices. First, in a world of synchronized growth, silver should outperform gold, as it has a much larger industrial base. In particular, the solar sector and vehicle electrification are very promising areas for silver demand. Second, silver seems to be undervalued. Historically, one needs 58 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold, but now it would take around 80 ounces.

Tuesday, May 01, 2018

Number of BTL Mortgate Market Deals Breach 2,000 for the Firt Time / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: MoneyFacts

The past couple of years have been turbulent for both landlords and buy-to-let (BTL) providers, given the significant changes to regulations and taxation that have occurred. Yet despite this, the latest research from moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the number of buy-to-let products has reached an all-time high – passing the 2000 mark for the first time on record.

Tuesday, May 01, 2018

The Left Celebrates Commie Day / Politics / Social Issues

By: BATR

The first of May is "Commie Day" for the left. The systematic destruction of the American culture has been caused by the Marxists who want to call themselves Progressives. The Democrat Party sees a Bernie Sanders as a standard bearer of Lenin's ideology and a Hillary Clinton as an offspring of Stalin. There is no semblance of a loyal opposition or pretense that bipartisan compromise can be attained in a civilized manner. No; the Left has declared war on the traditional principles upon which American was established. Citizens of good will need to face the enemy within and admit that the Federal government has a Fifth column that wants to overturn the few remnants of the Republic and impose a full blown dictatorship of the ideological pure collectivists.  

Tuesday, May 01, 2018

Consumers Have Finally Become Bearish on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Consumer Confidence survey also measures what consumers think the stock market will do. This is essentially a sentiment survey for the stock market.

Consumers were bullish on the stock market from Trump’s election until this month. Whenever the stock market goes at least 1 year without consumers being bearish on the stock market, the stock market tends to go higher in the medium-long term (historically).

Here are the historical cases in which consumers became bearish on the stock market after being consistently bullish for at least 1 year.