Saturday, October 15, 2022
Investment Tips You Should Know About / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Mark_Adan
1. P2P Lending
P2P lending, also known as peer-to-peer lending, is still pretty new. There are online P2P services that offers personal loans, business loans and other types of loans. You can join a service, and then you can pool your money with other investors to fund loans to others. If the borrower qualifies for a loan, then you'll make money when they start paying the loan back or when the loan is paid back in full.
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
How Will the New CPI Data Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Fresh inflation data is to be released tomorrow. While it may trigger daily fluctuations, the precious metals’ medium-term fundamentals remain bearish.
Stuck in Reverse
While risk assets attempted a daily rally on Oct. 11, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoiled the party with his hawkish warning to U.K. pension funds. After restarting QE to curb the rapid rise in U.K. interest rates, he said:
“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability is that [intervention] is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”
Thus, while gold bucked the trend, it was another down day for silver, mining stocks and the S&P 500. Furthermore, with Fed officials undeterred by the financial market volatility, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Oct. 11:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Ways to increase efficiency while playing in mobile casino / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Varun_Kumar
Earlier online casino experiences were limited to a mere desktop experience. Things took a drastic turn with the invention of smartphones. And which resulted in the arrival of mobile casinos. That is super confinement and loaded with plenty of features. The followers of mobile casinos are rapidly rising as people see them as god sent.
The inevitable features it offered stole gamblers' hearts and became a quick obsession among the gambling community. If you are a gambler looking to try out mobile casinos, there couldn't be a better time than this. The mobile casino developers are thriving hard to make the gaming experience as smooth as possible.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Barratt Smith Brown - How Britains' Debt Collectors Actually Operate, Treat Victims of Energy Firms / ConsumerWatch / Debt & Loans
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firms such as Barratt Smith and Brown are literally a law onto themselves, wracking up self imposed 'penalties' onto NONE EXISTENT DEBT! All courtesy of Administrators such as ENSORS ACCOUNTANTS. As this article illustrates how they play their milk the debt victim game which includes PREVENTING victims from being able to pay off 'debts' all whilst the so called Financial Ombudsman and Financial Conduct Authority sleep,
Firstly how does one cross paths with Debt Collecting outfit such as this if one has NO debt?
In step Britain's Energy companies that walked away from fixed rate tariff contracts, dumping their customers onto the regulator to parcel off onto the the likes of EDF resulting in huge hikes in tariffs. For instance I paid in advance above the market rate to fix my Gas tariff at 2.5p per kwh with Zog Energy who instead of honouring their contract took the money and ran, dumping their customers onto the regulator who ditched all onto EDF that hiked the tariff rate to 7.5p per kwh, three times the fixed rate! So triple the gas bill!
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Monday, October 10, 2022
Stock Market Trend Current State of Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P closed at 3680. trading to a low of 3633, June's low is 3622, so the 50% retracement studies conclusion so far remains in tact which implies that this decline is a bear trap, to be clear a trap for the bears all betting on a collapse into the abyss of 3,200 and below, fantasy numbers such as 3000 area being bandied around, and apparently Monday 26th is the end of the SHIEMITA when a big CRASH is due!, Note I don't for a minute take this nonsense seriously, anyway today's the last day of the SHEIMTA that was ironically brought to my attention in June near the bear market lows when there were shrill cries of SELL EVERYTHING NOW! In which case the Shemita folk are looking to break even today (in US dollars). To be clear SHIMTA is BS, but like all BS's there will be coincidences which with the benefit of hindsight will be twisted and turned into support of BS as will probably happen to this SHEIMITA where what it originally implied will be subverted with the benefit of hindsight, that's the case with religious mumbo jumbo, people actually do want to believe in the super natural! That ancient religious texts somehow have magic powers to predict what the stock market will do in 2022 which can only happen via a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough believe in it and act on it then yes it sort of comes true, which in fact is the basis of Technical Analysis, traders and algo's lock step acting on wiggly lines on the charts. A quick google shows that most of the major market CRASH events happened AFTER SHEMITA but for some reason SHEMITA claims jurisdiction over them as well i.e. 1987 Crash, 9-11 attack and so on,
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Monday, October 10, 2022
Gold Is Below $1,700 Again. Will It Repeat Its Fall to $1400? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The current situation of gold and its behavior in 2013 share many bearish analogies. Is the yellow metal only halfway through its massive collapse?
A Decade Ago
After we posted last week’s gold price forecast, gold, silver, and mining stocks declined in tune with the analysis. Is the rally over?
Let’s start by taking a closer look at gold.
Monday, October 10, 2022
FREAK SHOW - Alton Towers Scarefest Scare Zone 2022 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Anika_Walayat
Welcome to Freak Show, you can stay forever! The carnival is back in town for Scarefest 2022 in this brand new scare zone at Alton Towers, Freak Show. A travelling side-show of circus rejects has descended upon Alton Towers. Dare you walk amongst the freakishly fascinating misfits, desperate for your undivided attention?
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
Scarefest 2022 – Halloween Fright Night Has Begun! Enter Alton Towers at Your Peril! / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Anika_Walayat
Prepare to be scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK for another post pandemic year, frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave children out there! Here is our first video in our Scarefest series of what it's like to step foot into Alton Towers Scarefest 2022! With lots of ghouls and ghosts to give you plenty of frights!
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Investing At Bear Market Lows / Commodities / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I made lots of small across the board buys earlier in the the week with my main focus on Nvidia, HPQ, Logitec and Arrow, and 1 big buy - Samsung. Current state of my portfolio is 71% invested, 29% cash. Remember as stock prices go up so does the percent invested, similarly when stock prices fall the percent invested naturally drops.
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
2 ways to profit from “America’s Great Divide” / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
There’s a strange new trend sweeping across America…
Thanks to prices rising at their fastest pace in decades, folks are trying anything to save a few bucks.
Some of my friends switched energy providers to get better deals. Others drive to the next town over to get cheaper gas. It’s gotten so bad even the “six-figure club” have turned into penny pinchers...
Saturday, October 08, 2022
Silver – Dead In The Water for 40 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER IS DEAD IN THE WATER…
…and cheap; it’s a bargain! Buy it now before it goes to – $500? Seriously? One thing for sure; silver is cheaper now than it was the last time we heard such exuberant (irrational?) calls for action.
In fact, the lower the silver price goes, the more fervent are the claims and projections for ever higher and seemingly ridiculous prices. After more than forty years of calls for $100 silver (see $100 Silver – Nothing Has Changed) now we are being treated to fantasy projections of $500 oz.
Coupled with the price prediction of $500 for silver is a prediction for a crash in the U.S. dollar – by 2023.
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
Trick or Treat Show at Scarefest 2022 – Halloween Fright Night Has Begun! Alton Towers / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TRICK OT TREAT SHOW! Prepare to be scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK for another post pandemic year, frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave children out there! Here is our first video in our Scarefest series of what it's like to step foot into Alton Towers Scarefest 2022! With lots of ghouls and ghosts to give you plenty of frights!
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Thursday, October 06, 2022
Jerome Powell's TRANSITORY DIP in INFLATION, AI and High Risk Stocks Updated Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION!
The big questions for the US and how our US tech stocks will fair over the coming year are -
1. Does the Federal Reserve finally understand just how dangerous inflation actually is ?
2. If it does then how is it going to subvert the inflationary policies of the White house, does not matter which clown is in office i.e. democrat or republican, BOTH have tendencies towards rampant money printing given the 4 year election cycle.
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Thursday, October 06, 2022
US Housing Market BUST - Why the Real Estate Tide is Turning / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Here's your next step to get a handle on the global property market.
Treat houses as a consumption item -- or simply as a place to live, and history shows that real prices will fluctuate only modestly over the decades.
Treat houses as an investment, and the value of houses takes on the characteristics of the stock market.
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Sunday, October 02, 2022
Answering the Question - Has the Stocks Bear Market Bottomed? Apple Nut About Crack? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Has the BEAR market Bottomed? That is the question I am most often asked for the duration of this bear market, where my earlier responses were that my focus was on accumulating target stocks as they DEVIIATE FROM THEIR HIGHS TO NEW LOWS, so where the indices actually bottom is largely irrelevant. Still this is the most asked question so following the June bottom my stance changed to the bottom is probably in for most target stocks, though I cannot say the same for the indices. However in the run up to 4180 I had penciled in a subsequent bear swing target of between 3720 to 3920 for a probable higher low, which means that June was probably the bottom. This weeks price action further strongly suggests that the BOTTOM IS IN as I voiced in the comments section of my last article where for me the key indication was the breakout above 4200, it was not an intraday move or a few shallow spikes above 4200, Instead the S&P rocketed higher by over 110 points in a 3 day run from 4200 to 4317 that acted as a strong indicator that 3637 was THE BOTTOM, and thus all we can now seek is a correction of a fraction of the rally off the bottom for a 2nd bite at the AI stocks investing cherries.
However, the bottom is in is also based on my past studies that suggest a 50% reversal from the bear market lows usually act as a strong indication of the bottom being in which is the focus of this analysis that acts as a further excerpt from my forthcoming in-depth analysis that I have hit the pause button on for 1 week as I venture out of my castle for the first time in 6 months to travel to Wales for some sun, sea and sand and perhaps see if I can find Excalibur in one of it's many lakes that follows the slow recovery form my March ruptured Achilles tendon injury that revealed the extent to which the NHS is a JOKE Health Service when one actually has the misfortune to use it.
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Sunday, October 02, 2022
The Queen Died, but King Dollar Lives On / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Queen Elizabeth II died, but King Dollar is the strongest in decades. Gold doesn’t like it.To say that gold has been struggling this year is an understatement. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal declined from above $2,000 to below $1,700 (as of September 20). That slide occurred during the highest inflation since the great stagflation of the 1970s.
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Sunday, October 02, 2022
Why Gold? Why now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Richard_Mills
Why should investors even consider taking a position in a gold junior, given gold’s lackluster performance so far this year?
Having scaled 2021 peaks of $1,865 an ounce in November, and $1,903 in June, the gold price burst onto 2022 @ $1,800. By Jan. 19 it was at $1,840. Since then, the precious metal has come under intense selling pressure. A combination of rising government bond yields and a soaring US dollar index are the main bearish elements driving gold (and silver) south. Spot gold year to date is down $124, or 8.4%.
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Saturday, October 01, 2022
Will UK House Prices CRASH Following Bond Market Panic? - 3 Year Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England PANICS and Bailouts the Banks and Pension Funds once more by reversing course on barely begun Quantitative Tightening to buy up a huge supply of Government Bonds to force long-term interest rates lower because the Banks and Pension funds had gambled with pension fund holder funds on interest rate derivatives.
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Saturday, October 01, 2022
Fed QT2 Imperils Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The Fed’s second quantitative-tightening campaign already ramped up to full-speed in September, with dire market implications. The unprecedented scale of QT2’s monetary destruction dwarfs QT1’s, which crushed stock markets. With inflation raging out of control because of the Fed’s extreme quantitative-easing money printing, it has no choice but to run aggressive QT even though that imperils overvalued stocks.
Like many serious economic problems today, the Fed’s intractable money-supply-inflation mess was born in March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic. In just over a single month, the flagship S&P 500 stock index plummeted an apocalyptic 33.9%! Traders were terrified government-imposed lockdowns to fight the new COVID-19 virus would force a severe recession or full-blown depression, so they ran for the hills.
Fed officials joined in that panicking, deeply worried that the negative wealth effect from cratering stocks would crush consumer spending and thus the US economy. So the Federal Open Market Committee rushed to intervene, making two emergency inter-meeting federal-funds-rate cuts of 50 basis points and 100bp! But with the latter slamming the FFR back down to zero, the Fed was out of rate-cut ammunition.
So these elite central bankers making monetary policy decided to radically expand their already-underway fourth QE campaign. QE4 had been born about five months earlier in mid-October 2019, adding $275b to the Fed’s balance sheet in that span. At that same Sunday-evening meeting where the FOMC slashed its FFR 100bp, it pledged to monetize “at least” $500b in US Treasuries and $200b in mortgage-backed bonds.
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