Monday, January 21, 2019
From ASEAN Economic Development to Militarization / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In Africa, the Trump administration is setting a precedent by replacing economic development with militarization. In Asia, it seeks to couple “rebalancing” in trade with a rearmament drive.In a recent editorial, The Manila Times expressed concern that relatively benign economic conditions may lead to a false sense of security as “the United States-China trade war may be starting to inflict collateral damage on the economy.”
In the short-term, it is a valid concern for the Philippines and other ASEAN economies that currently benefit relatively benign economic conditions.
But even if the worst excesses of the trade war could be deterred, there are darker clouds in the longer-term horizon. The Trump administration’s new trade protectionism is accompanied by increasingly military stance. The new US Africa strategy heralds changes in other regions as well, particularly Asia.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Bitcoin is entering the Dead Zone / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: readtheticker
Bitcoin and the technology boom of 1990's have so much in common, you would think they are twins!
Previous Post: Bitcoin is so like 1979 silver
The chart below shows how similar each story is.
Mr Market knows this, therefore the desire to enter this market is low, and lower prices will plaque Bitcoin for the next 18 months at least. The supply of coins into this market will continue, and prices will continue to fall, there may be bear market rallies along the way, and the good news is the patient (yip that word) long term investors will have the chance to accumulate coins at pre 2017 bubble launch zones (massive support zones).
Monday, January 21, 2019
Gold Stocks Remain in a Downtrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we discussed the difference between a rally and bull market.
Gold stocks have been in a rally.
That rally is now over as gold stocks peaked at their 400-day moving averages days ago and sliced through their 200-day moving averages Friday.
Take a look at the charts of any gold stock index (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) and it’s clear they are in a downtrend.
Go back two to three years. You’ll see lower highs and lower lows. That’s a downtrend!
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Will China Surprise The Us Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we openly discussed the potential for global turmoil related to Europe, Asia, China, and South America. The issues before the globe are that the global economy may not be firing in sync and that there are credit and debt, as well as geopolitical, issues that persist. The interesting component of all of this is that the US stock market has staged a very impressive recovery over the past two weeks that have shocked even the best Wall Street analysts and researchers. While the US recovered from elections, the Fed, FANG price collapse and a Government Shutdown, the US stock markets appeared to be falling off a cliff. Then, almost exactly on Christmas Eve, the markets turned around – even in the midst of all of this uncertainty.
Now, nearly 3 weeks after Christmas, the US stock market appears to be shaking off the negativity and headed for higher price levels. China announced a plan to eliminate the trade barriers between the US by providing a 10-year plan to gradually eliminate any US trade deficit. Even though China has discussed this plan before, the US stock market ate it up like a starving man on a deserted island. The ES rallied over 3.35% this week. The NQ rallied over 3.0% and the YM rallied over 3.25% week.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Tips to Keep Your Finances Healthy in 2019 and Beyond / Personal_Finance / Money Management
By: OutreachMama
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Tips for Writing Assignment in Hurry / Economics / Education
By: Umer_Mahmood
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Monday, January 21, 2019
UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My latest analysis in a series aimed at arriving at a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices covers population growth which is one of the key primary drivers for UK house prices which since the Labour government of 1997 natural population growth net of births and deaths has been vastly supplemented by what has amounted to out of control immigration courtesy of Britain's membership of the European Union and the former Labour governments objective for the importation of millions of potential Labour voters from mostly new member states from across an impoverished eastern europe that resulted in near 5 million economic migrants settling in the UK by 2016, mostly in what were already over crowded British cities, thus putting severe pressure on services and infrastructure and the whole housing market as the likes of the rental sector soared with 1 million new buy to let landlords entering the market buying 4 million properties, forcing up house prices across the board where rents in large part are being funded by tax payers in the form of the soaring housing benefits bill.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
REMAIN Parliament to Subvert BrExit with Peoples Vote FIXED 2nd EU Referendum / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week Britain's inept Prime Minister Theresa May who has stubbornly refused to do the right thing by resigning thus further lost what little power she had left by means of two House of Common Votes, first on her EU Exit deal on which Parliament delivered a humiliating defeat on Tuesday, losing by 230 votes (432 to 202) the largest defeat of a Government in Parliamentary history which was then followed with Wednesday's vote of confidence in her Government that only just managed to survive with the aid of 10 DUP MP's resulting in 325 to 306.
It should not come as much surprise that Parliament rejected May's deal which was nothing other than complete GARBAGE, one that gives the EU £39 billion for NOTHING in return! And then there is the 'backstop' or more accurately the 'backstab', a means by which to ensure that the UK can NEVER LEAVE the EU without the EU's permission!
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Pay Attention To The Russell Stocks Index and Financial Sectors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
For those that still believe the US markets are weak and poised for a total collapse, we want to bring something to your attention. Throughout weeks of uncertainty about China trade deals, the US government shutdown, continued Brexit issues and who knows what else… oh yeah US Q4 Earnings data, guess what has been taking place in some US sectors? That’s right, a rather solid price recovery.
Two of our favorite sectors to watch for signs of strength and weakness have been rocketing higher over the past few weeks after setting up a very deep price low near Christmas 2018. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Financial Sector ETF (XLF). While the ES, NQ, and others are still waffling around trying to find the momentum to break out to the upside, pay attention to the other sectors that could be leading the way.
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Venezuela's Hyperinflation Hits 80,000% Per Year in 2018 / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Venezuela's economy has collapsed. This is the result of years of socialism, incompetence, and corruption, among other things. An important element that mirrors the economy's collapse is Venezuela's currency, the bolivar. It is not trustworthy. Venezuela's exchange rate regime provides no discipline. It only produces instability, poverty, and the world’s highest inflation rate for 2018. Indeed, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate at the end of 2018 was 80,000%.
I observed much of Venezuela’s economic dysfunction first-hand during the 1995-96 period, when I acted as President Rafael Caldera’s adviser. But it wasn’t until 1999, when Hugo Chavez was installed as president, that the socialist seeds of Venezuela’s current meltdown started to be planted. This is not to say that Venezuela had not suffered from an unstable currency and elevated inflation rates before the arrival of President Chavez, but with his ascendancy, fiscal and monetary discipline further deteriorated and inflation ratcheted up. By the time President Nicolas Maduro arrived in early 2013, annual inflation was in triple digits and rising. Venezuela entered what has become a death spiral.
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Hyperinflation - Zimbabwe's Monetary Death Spiral / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
President Mnangagwa’s pledge that Zimbabwe is “open for business” rings hollow. Indeed, many businesses in Zimbabwe are shuttered. An increase in government controlled fuel prices over the weekend has ignited simmering fury over what is in fact a currency crisis. In response, Zimbabwe’s security forces have launched a violent crackdown on protestors and opposition politicians. The crackdown has been done under the cover of a social media blackout. Yes, the internet is shuttered, too.
In a sense, the only thing new in this uprising is President Mnangagwa himself. Recall that it was he who organized a coup that removed the long-serving, strongman Robert Mugabe from power in 2017. This was followed by what many claim was a rigged election by the Mugabe-Mnangagwa ruling ZANU-PF party. Rigged or not, the election gave Mnangagwa’s Presidency the patina of legitimacy.
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Extends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
The News About Fake News Is Fake / Politics / Mainstream Media
By: Raul_I_Meijer
In the last few days I was looking around for stories that could illustrate what fake news actually is, and I had a nice collection, but then last night Robert Mueller of all people clarified what exactly fake news is better than I could have. At first the BuzzFeed crew that was caught staring straight into the headlights has a feeble response (what exactly was untrue in our article?), but was silenced by the WaPo of all publications: Mueller’s team said every bit of the article was false.
And still I wonder if people now understand better what fake news is. Which I think has a lot to do whit the fact that the term was monopolized by a section of US media as meaning things that had to do with Trump, more or less exclusively. That way, when Trump accused these same media of publishing fake news, they knew their loyal readers wouldn’t believe him.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
Stock Market Bull Trap? January 22 Top Likely / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
It has been a while since I have written a public article. The current set up is just too intriguing not to write about. Therefore, let me cut to the chase. The stock market peak of October 3, 2018 and subsequent drop into Dec 26 is not over, not by any measure that I can see. In fact, a likely C wave down from January 22 (full moon/lunar eclipse in Leo, major 4 X Bradley turn due 1/18, 32 TD top plus nasty astro aspects like Mars in Aries square Saturn combined with Jupiter square Neptune 1/13,) into February 11th is about to take place. I believe the top on Tuesday will start from a high of 2685 (the top of the rising wedge… see chart below) and drop another 16% just like we did from Dec 3 into the 26th. That targets about 2250 on the S&P 500 for the February low (February 11 is the 33 week, 32 TD and 7 week low). A double bottom will likely form into March 6th, the Gann 16 TD low.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
After the Crash, the Stock Market Made a V-shaped Recovery. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P has now retraced more than 50%, which was the standard post-crash target outlined a few weeks ago. The stock market is exactly where it was a few months ago. This demonstrates the stock market’s “bullish bias” – it goes up more often than down. Absent significant macro economic deterioration, it’s very hard for the stock market to keep going down.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
David Morgan: Expect Stagflation and Silver Outperformance in 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report joins me for a conversation on a range of topics, including his 2019 outlook for a number of different asset classes, most notably gold and silver. Don’t miss a fantastic preview of 2019 with the Silver Guru, David Morgan, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are trading relatively quiet this week as the U.S. stock market continues to show surprising strength. It’s surprising at least to investors who expected markets to reflect growing political threats to the economy. As the partial government shutdown enters an unprecedented 28th day, economists are warning of a significant hit to first quarter GDP.
It’s not that furloughed government workers contribute much to economic productivity. It’s that since they are now starting to miss paychecks, they will have less to spend into the economy. GDP measures the nominal size of the economy, not how productive or efficient or free or fair it is.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
Digital Luggage Scales Accuracy Tests - Top Tips for Holidays 2019 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: HGR
Planning your summer holidays for 2019? We'll here's what you need to know about cheap digital luggage scales that can be bought from the likes of Amazon for £10 or less, as we see how accurate and consistent typical digital luggage scales tend to be by using a variety of weight lifting plates to test a number of digital luggage scales.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
Why Brampton Manor Academy State School 41 Oxbridge Offers is Nothing to Celebrate! / Politics / Education
By: N_Walayat
The mainstream press has been busy today focused on how one London State school, Brampton Manor Academy has managed to achieve 41 offers of places at Cambridge and Oxford Universities, as though it is something to celebrate when the exact opposite is true! What about the hundreds of thousands of students from all of the other state schools? All this shows is how Oxbridge admissions are highly skewed towards those who know how to play the admissions system so as to engineer places into the Universities. Which is pretty much what the likes of the private schools have been doing for decades.
So, NO Brampton academy achieving 41 offers at Oxbridge is NOTHING CELEBRATE! The exact opposite is true! For it shows how little of Britain's state school talent actually makes it into Britain's top Universities which means they will not tend to churn out the best of Britain.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
REMAIN Parliament Prepares to Subvert BrExit with Peoples Vote FIXED 2nd EU Referendum / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week Britain's inept Prime Minister Theresa May who stubbornly refused to do the right thing by resigning and thus further lost what little power she had left by means of two House of Common Votes, first on her EU Exit deal on which Parliament delivered a humiliating defeat on Tuesday, losing by 230 votes (432 to 202) the largest defeat of a Government in Parliamentary history which was then followed Wednesday's vote of confidence in her Government that only just managed to survive with the aid of 10 DUP MP's resulting in 325 to 306.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Gold Surges on Stock Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold investment demand reversed sharply higher in recent months, fueling a strong gold rally. The big stock-market selloff rekindled interest in prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold. These mounting investment-capital inflows into gold are likely to persist and intensify. Both weaker stock markets and higher gold prices will continue to drive more investment demand, growing gold’s upleg.
Early in Q4’18, gold reached a major inflection point. It languished during the first three quarters of 2018, down 8.5% year-to-date by the end of Q3. Investors wanted nothing to do with alternative investments with the stock markets powering to new record highs. The flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had rallied 9.0% in the first 3/4ths of last year. That left gold deeply out of favor heading into Q4.
But a critical psychological switch was flipped as the SPX started sliding last quarter. After long years with little material downside, stock traders had been lulled into overpowering complacency. They were shocked awake as the SPX plunged 14.0% in Q4, its worst quarter since Q3’11. They poured back into gold as stocks burned, driving it a strong 7.6% higher in Q4! Rekindled investment demand was the driver.
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