Monday, February 03, 2020

Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: readtheticker

The world is changing because the US FED is considering capping the US 10 yr interest rate under the US inflation rate, or negative real interest rates forever. Further massive destruction of the US dollar purchasing power. Previous Post: Formula for when the great stock market rally ends In the previous post this blog said:

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong. This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you. Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).

Monday, February 03, 2020

Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Limited correction underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, February 02, 2020

Coronavirus Being Spread by Chinese Students - Pandemic Trend Analysis Day 55 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary conduit for the spread of the Coronavirus outside of China are Chinese people (mostly students) who traveled out of China during the past few weeks, including several tens of thousands from the Wuhan epicentre of the outbreak. So it should not come as much of a surprise that the first declared infection in the UK is from a Chinese student at York University who has sent authorities scrambling to investigate all contacts that the student had as potential sources for further outbreaks of this deadly coronavirus.

Sunday, February 02, 2020

Gold Stocks HUI Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts - A “Translation Service” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

The following is a TA post. It tries not to focus on fundamentals or the negative potential sentiment setup that could develop when Coronavirus relief finally spreads across the land. It’s the short and long-term TA of it, as it stands now.

I found this comment response to the Goldseek version of my article on the long-term gold Commitments of Traders situation to be amusing and also on point, since I know a lot of what I write can be confusing to the untrained eye amid a sea of readily digestible analysis out there. Good one, sir…

“Do you think if I pay an extra $15 a month to the $35 subscription fee you can provide a translation service in [English] to what you’re trying to talk about ?”

Sunday, February 02, 2020

Mi Amigo B17 Flying Fortress Crash Site Memorial - February 2020, Endcliffe Park, Sheffield / Local / Sheffield

By: Anika_Walayat

Here is what the US B17 Flying Fortress bomber crash memorial looks like in February 2020 which is the 76th anniversary of the crash of a US B17 Flying Fortress bomber in Endcliffe Park, Sheffield on the 22nd of February 1944 costing the lives of the 10 member crew of the "Mi Amigo". Pensioner Tony Foulds aged 82 regularly tends the memorial site after witnessing the plane crash as a child, and states that he owes his life to the airmen who avoided children in the park.

A fly past to took place on the 22nd of Feb 2019 as arranged by BBC Presenter Dan Walker.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The first part of my overall stock market outlook for 2020 was posted at the start of January, now here is the full analysis that concludes in an overall forecast for the Dow into the end of 2020, a gauge against which to measure relative strength or weakness as the stock market trends through the year.

This analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Chinese Students Spreading Coronavirus Infections Across UK Universities - Pandemic Day 55 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary conduit for the spread of the Coronavirus outside of China are Chinese people (mostly students) who traveled out of China during the past few weeks, including several tens of thousands from the Wuhan epicentre of the outbreak. So it should not come as much of a surprise that the first declared infection in the UK is from a Chinese student at York University who has sent authorities scrambling to investigate all contacts that the student had as potential sources for further outbreaks of this deadly coronavirus.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

The Coronavirus Doesn’t Matter Either… We Have the Federal Reserve! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

As the coronavirus continues to spread, global financial markets are showing the symptoms of investor unease.

Chinese and emerging markets stocks have taken a big hit over the past several days, as have commodities. Crude oil prices have dropped 13% over the past two weeks while copper has seen a 12% drop on concerns about the impact of the China virus on global demand.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Bulls Are Impatient: Will They See a Recession in 2020? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recession, recession - will we see one in 2020? And will it bring about a rally in gold then?. True or false? In today’s article, we’ll test the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative and we’ll then show you what it all means for the gold market.

One year ago, we wrote that “we do not expect recession next year or even in 2020”. We were right: the U.S. economy did not slide into a recession in 2019. But will it happen this year? After all, the current economic expansion lasts 127 months. We know that expansions do not die of old age, but we also know that the next economic crisis will one day arrive, sooner or later. Twelve months ago, we were skeptical about a downturn in 2020, as “the lack of clear typical warning signs that preceded the past recessions put the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative into question”.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Stock Market Combination Topping Pattern Is Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has highlighted a number of technical and other factors that point to a very real potential of a major market top setting up across the global markets.  We’ve highlighted a number of research articles over the past 30 to 45 days that clearly illustrate our interpretation of the US and global markets.

Our research team believes the Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan china will cripple economic expansion and consumer economic activity in China and much of SE Asia over the next few weeks and months.  If the virus spreads into India, it could quickly target large portions of India’s economic capabilities.  We are very early into this potential pandemic event.  The growth rates reported by China suggest only a 2~3% death rate, yet an almost exponential growth rate for the number of invested.  It started off below 100 about 10+ days ago and is now almost ready to break 10k.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Miners Message for the Precious Metals Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The Fed kept rates unchanged and while it was not immediately preceded by major price moves in the PMs, the no-change decision was followed by bullish price action in the following hours. This action extends into today’s pre-market trading.

Most interestingly, however, the USD Index repeated its daily reversal confirming that lower values are to be expected. This confirms our yesterday’s analysis.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

The Dow Points To Higher Silver Prices For Years To Come / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Dow is at, or very close to a 90-year resistance line:

Could a top be in, or is it extremely close? What I do know, from my own research, is that major Dow peaks are extremely important when it comes to Silver rallies.

Friday, January 31, 2020

Chinese Family Fleeing Wuhan Bring CoronaVirus to UK - Pandemic Outbreak Day 54 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary conduit for the spread of the virus are Chinese people fleeing a collapsing healthcare system in China which has resulted in the inevitable, Britain's first cases of Coronavirus as a Chinese family arriving into the UK on Wednesday 29th January, virtually on arrival at their York hotel called paramedics that they were infected and thus began Britain's first virus outbreak. This is likely the first of many such occurrences of Chinese families having fled chinese virus hotspots to burden western healthcare systems as they fear a near death sentence in their own country due to the magnitude of the outbreak in their nation that their selfish actions now seek to replicate elsewhere.

Friday, January 31, 2020

China Coronavirus Infections Spread vs Forecast Pandemic Update Video / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus continues it's exponential spread across China, this despite Chinese state propaganda peddling a line of measures taken especially earlier in the month having limited the spread of the virus that is not being born out by data released that on a daily basis shows the spread is exponential to across the whole of China and likely neighbouring nations.

My analysis and concluding forecast of 28th January based on data up until the 27th of January utilised trend analysis to forecast that the Coronavirus could infect over 1 million people by the end of February 2020, which given the apparent fatality rate of 3.5% at the time converted into an death toll of at least 35,000. Which if it transpired would be far worse than the 2002-2003 SARS pandemic that infected 8,098 over 8 months resulting in 774 deaths, and thus the Coronavirus would have significant economic and market consequences.

Friday, January 31, 2020

Asian Stock Markets Analysis - China, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

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Friday, January 31, 2020

Silver Prepares For Next Leg Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Following up on some of our recent metals research, we wanted to alert our friends and followers to the incredible opportunity that still exists in Silver.  We’ve highlighted two of our more recent articles for reference and review, below.  Silver continues to be one of the most incredible opportunities for 2020 and Silver Miners (SIL) could explode to the upside as the price of Silver rallies to close the gap between the Gold to Silver ratio.

Our researchers believe Silver is currently undervalued, compared to Gold, by at least 240%.  Historically, the Gold to Silver ratio averages a 10+ year rotational range of between 63 to 67.  This means that through both peaks and troughs, ranging from the high 80s to mid-90s to the low 30s to mid-40s, on average the middle price range level for this ratio is near 65.  Currently, this Gold to Silver ratio is 88.4.

Gold is currently trading at $1590 – just below the recent peak near $1613.  We believe that Gold will continue to rally higher, breaking the $1613 level, and continue higher targeting the $1750 level over the next few months.  Eventually, within 2020, we believe Gold will continue to rally higher breaking the $2100 price level.

Friday, January 31, 2020

How Much Should You Have In Your 401k? / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Submissions

401k is considered one of the most common retirement savings accounts being offered by companies to their employees. It’s one of their ways to assist their workers in preparing for their future. This account is very beneficial as it has both savings and tax advantages.

This retirement fund is not limited to cash but can also be in the form of stocks, real estate investment trusts, and mutual funds. What’s good with this is that it’s temporarily deductible from the taxable income up the portion of the employees’ contribution.

Friday, January 31, 2020

... / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Coronavirus Infections Spread vs Forecast - 30th Jan 2020 Pandemic Update / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus continues it's exponential spread across China, this despite Chinese state propaganda peddling a line of measures taken especially earlier in the month having limited the spread of the virus that is not being born out by data released that on a daily basis shows the spread is exponential to across the whole of China and likely neighbouring nations.

My analysis and concluding forecast of 28th January based on data up until the 27th of January utilised trend analysis to forecast that the Coronavirus could infect over 1 million people by the end of February 2020, which given the apparent fatality rate of 3.5% at the time converted into an death toll of at least 35,000. Which if it transpired would be far worse than the 2002-2003 SARS pandemic that infected 8,098 over 8 months resulting in 774 deaths, and this the Coronavirus would have significant economic and market consequences.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Fed Keeps Federal Funds Rate Unchanged Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The FOMC held its first meeting in both the new year and the decade, keeping interest rates unchanged. But why did the yellow metal move up regardless? Let’s examine the implications for the king of metals.

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on January 28-29th. In line with expectations, the US central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent:

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective.