Thursday, April 08, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This video presents the final forecast conclusion in a detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 , extensive analysis of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Markets tend to move in cycles. They typically experience cyclical pullbacks after trending higher for a long period of time. Rarely do markets move straight up or straight down.
The stock market has, however, essentially moved straight up since the March 2020 mini-crash. As the market moves higher, an increasing number of “analysts” are calling for even higher equity prices.
Just last week, in fact, an analyst called for the broad market S&P 500 index to double by 2030.
Calls for an 8000 S&P do not seem quite as farfetched as they did just a year ago. That is the power of greed (and wishful thinking) at work.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Antonius_Aquinas
After Brexit, there has been a growing number of voices within the European Union and among various nationalistic groups arguing that English should be replaced as the official language since now only Ireland and Malta retain English.
The loudest quarter calling for a change has come from the French who, not surprisingly, want their own tongue to become the lingua franca of the EU. Eric Zemmour, a French conservative commentator, asserts, “I think this is the time to launch a counter-offensive in favour of French, to recall that French was the original language of EU institutions.”*
A return to French, however, has its difficulties with other nationalist groups particularly those from the EU’s dominant economic power, Germany.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our exploration of the recent US Dollar rally and what it may be reacting to in relation to the current US stock market highs and continued rally, we will explore some of the underlying factors that are translating into US Dollar strength while the US stock market continues to push higher.
In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the US Dollar reaction to the 2008-09 credit market crisis and how the US Dollar actually started to bottom/rally in early 2008 – just as the rollover top in the US stock markets continued to setup. The way the US Dollar reacts to stress factors in the global markets is to strengthen as a safe haven as capital is constantly seeking the best environment for investment and profits. When the markets enter a period of turmoil, the US Dollar typically begins to strengthen before the global markets really begin to react to the fear or turmoil.
The recent news of large financial institutions and hedge funds taking large losses and closing operations is somewhat similar to the Lehman event of 2008. These types of larger corporate debt collapses have wide-range global market effects. Sometimes, these events can ripple into other global corporations who engaged in this level of financing or credit functions. For example, Credit Suisse’s attempt to recoup potential losses from the Greensill collapse may be a very complicated and fruitless process according to a recent Wall Street Journal article.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Almost exactly a year ago, oil prices went negative $40.
Today, with crude trading at $60, you're hearing lots of opinions as to what's next.
"Electric car revolution" ... "reopening economy" ... "end of commute" ... "start of travel season"
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Previously dismissed, the USDX may now be back with a vengeance. Sentiment is swinging away from shorts and there is an uncanny historical pattern.
With a potential bearish pattern already broken, the USDX is resuming its journey northward. And why is it geared to do well? Is it because the U.S. economy is ripping head? Definitely not - that’s not happening. It’s rather because other regions (think Europe and Japan) are doing even worse.
The dollar’s imminent rise doesn’t mean that gold can’t still experience some very short-term upswing, but for the medium-term, the precious metals continue to face bearish headwinds.
With the greenback laying back and enjoying a well-deserved Easter vacation, gold, silver and the gold miners avoided a dollar-drama for at least another day. However, with the USD Index working to regain its supremacy, along with investors’ respect, the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has quietly dissipated from the investing zeitgeist.
Case in point: the USD Index has broken above its monthly declining resistance line and has already made four new highs since the New Year. More importantly though, because the precious metals have a strong negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, the upward momentum has coincided with an 8.78% drawdown of gold, a 6.18% drawdown of silver and a 6.41% drawdown of the GDX ETF.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if the narratives were flipped, and value „could“ move up on rising yields. Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.
Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.
Both the VIX and put/call ratio are at extended levels – the first below 18 (formerly unimaginable to stock market non-bulls), the second approaching local lows again. As I have written yesterday:
(…) Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.
Wednesday, April 07, 2021
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits / Companies / Microsoft
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Microsoft stocks risen by 10% since my last update but the valuations have stayed constant on an EC of 55, which is why Microsoft remains a great primary stock that stealthily continues to deliver as AI is driving this tech giants exponential growth continuing to beat Wall street expectations after all the analysts think linear whilst the trend trajectory is exponential. With Microsoft AI Azure cloud computing division growing by 50% per annum, converts into a Buy rating of 65%.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2021
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE / Companies / Amazon
By: Nadeem_Walayat
First Amazon stock soared into the stratosphere and now so have Amazon earnings doubling, sales up 44%.Gone is Amazons EC of 148! Gone too is the relatively pricey valuation of 91 of November 2020, and here we now stand barely 3 months on with Amazon priced on par with Google trading on an EC of just 42. What does this mean, it means Amazon is CHEAP! And thus the Buy Percentage is 100%!
Unfortunately this means the odds are stacked against all those looking for lower prices. Of course we can get lucky and the market panics and takes the likes of Amazon with it but in technical and valuation terms seems very unlikely.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2021
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
Years of neglecting its critical metal supplies is catching up with the United States, as demand for the raw materials needed to build a new green economy that rejects fossil fuels gears up.
US President Joe Biden just announced a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending package aimed partially at shifting the US transportation system from gas and diesel-based to battery-powered, and more support for renewable energies such as wind and solar over carbon-based sources like natural gas.
The plan is big on promises and appears to benefit many sectors, but details are scant on how the country will source the metals needed for repairing and replacing traditional “blacktop” infrastructure, and minerals that will feed a brand new “mine to battery” supply chain.
This article takes a deep dive into the US metals problem and how it might work with its northern neighbor to address it.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2021
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: MoneyMetals
Central bankers and their comrades in Washington DC changed course in 2020. The policy shifted from “print money and hand it to Wall Street” to “helicopter money” in the form of direct payments and loans to citizens.
The fiscal stimulus, like the Fed’s monetary stimulus before it, provided a fix that addicted markets needed to stay high.
The helicopter money represents another “temporary” measure that will almost certainly become permanent. Much like Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy, bureaucrats will have a very hard time stopping what they have started.
Wednesday, April 07, 2021
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.
Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:
(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.
And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).
Wednesday, April 07, 2021
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Submissions
By Rida Morwa: One common criticism of high-yield investments is that they are high-yielding for a reason, making them risky. Often, there is a reason why a security has a "super" high yield. However, just because the market dislikes or fears a particular investment does not mean it is a high-risk investment. With our “Income Method”, we search for investment opportunities that pay a substantial dividend that is well covered by the business's operations, but that the market disfavors for the wrong reasons. This strategy combines immediate-income and value investing.
The Difference Between Perceived Risk and Actual Risk
Perceived risk is a subjective assessment of risk or uncertainty, based on our limited perspective. Others' perceptions will influence ours, and actual probabilities of adverse events may differ significantly. The market is often a key determiner of perceived risk. A recent sell-off, or misunderstood earnings news, or persistent negative "sector sentiment" can all be indicators of a high level of perceived risk. When such events occur, this can open the door for some great buying opportunities, especially when Mr. Market's perception is wrong about the risk factor, and when the fundamentals are strong.
Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Google stock has just rocketed higher after under performing it's brethren, and coming from it's last great buying opportunity low during September that saw Google trade down to $1400. This illustrates the primary point that we don't know precisely WHEN an individual stock will surge higher i.e. the AI stocks are not going to all move in lock step together. So it is pointless to ask questions such as why is Amazon soaring but Google is not, if a stock is good then eventually it will come good in terms of price performance and Google is literally PRIMARY which means that Google is likely to be the first mega-corp to be run by an AI in all but name. So the existence and scope of the AI's control and management needs will need to be inferred where one big clue will be inexplicable to most stock price movements that to me reveal the handiwork of post human intelligence - DEEP MIND!
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Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post-2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize. Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state-run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as global central banks attempt to reign in monetary policies.
This process is not likely to happen suddenly though. If this type of contraction in global monetary policy takes place, resulting in increased pressures to contain excessive credit/debt functions in the markets, then we believe the process may result in an extended 9 to 16+ months of “hit-and-miss” events leading up to a potentially bigger event. The Archegos Fund forced unwinding of trades hit the markets recently as a wake-up call. Prior to the Archegos event, the Greensill Capital collapse shocked the global markets because of the size and scope of this failure. Now, we see Credit Suisse issuing warnings that Q1 earnings may have taken a big hit because of exposure to the Greensill and Archegos assets – which is leading to Credit Suisse attempting to put the Gupta Trading Unit into insolvency.
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Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners / Personal_Finance / UK Housing
By: Submissions
Trying to maintain healthy finances despite a busy schedule and plenty of responsibilities can often feel like an impossible affair. As a matter of fact, it can feel like despite all the money you earn, it easily gets depleted no matter how hard you might try. That said, it is quite similar to trying to maintain an active lifestyle. While the first time you decide to go jogging might feel like a miserable experience, it gets easier with time.For finances, it is all about building a mindset fully geared toward saving. Eventually, it will start feeling like second nature, and you will wonder why you had any trouble, to begin with. Here are just a few financial tips for homeowners to ensure that they have enough to spend on a rainy day.
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Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Stock Market Pushing Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver markets sprung higher on Thursday as April and second quarter trading kicked off. After suffering losses in the first quarter, precious metals may now be due for a spring rally.
The U.S. Dollar Index was up slightly this week. Regardless of how the dollar fares against other fiat currencies, investors can expect massive depreciation ahead in real terms. There is no end in sight to the inflationary cycle of spending, borrowing, and printing in Washington.
This week, President Joe Biden promoted a so-called infrastructure package that comes in at more than $2 trillion. That’s on top of $1.9 trillion in bailouts and giveaways finalized last month.
Much of the proposed “infrastructure” spending has nothing to do with paving roads, building bridges, or expanding ports. These sorts of transportation upgrades are slated to only get $115 billion. Meanwhile, Biden would spend $174 billion on electric vehicle subsidies and hundreds of billions more on various “green” and racial leveling programs.
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Monday, April 05, 2021
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve / Personal_Finance / Crypto Mining
By: HGR
Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading above above $60,000 which means virtually anyone with a decent enough GPU in their desktop PC can make easy money crypto mining in the background with their desktop PC, basically getting paid to carry on working in the normal, even to the extent of being able to render videos in software such as Adobe Premier or Davinci Resolve as this video illustrates, of course it helps if one has a power CPU such as an 5950x and a powerful GPU such as an RTX 3080 which makes mining in the background a breeze, all whilst continuing to work on ones PC as normal with the the likes of NiceHash, where you get paid in BITCOIN and not useless obscure crypto coins, so do check out Nicehash to start crypto mining with your desktop PC.
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Monday, April 05, 2021
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Longtime gold bashers are gloating over the precious metal’s recent price slump. Gold prices have declined more than 10% in the first quarter of 2021.
But the perma-bears shouldn’t feel vindicated. After all, anyone who heeded their advice missed out on gold’s record run in 2020 – and on many years of outperformance since 2001.
While gold bugs are often accused of having an unhealthy obsession with the metal, the “anti-gold” bugs reveal a deep-seated bias that can only be explained as irrational or dishonest.