Thursday, May 20, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels, Expensive / Cheap (EC) Indicator and Buy % Ratings Review / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph -
9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Credit Market Wheels in Danger of Coming Off? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
SPX backing and filling worthy of Monday‘s session – with important rotations below the surface. Namely, tech and Nasdaq underwent daily consolidation on long-dated Treasuries retreating a little. Key point though was rejection of the intraday downside, making the S&P 500 pendulum likelier to swing this week again bullish. The VIX spike was rejected while option traders didn‘t give up much of their bearish resolve, which doesn‘t spoil the bullish picture though.
Stock trading yesterday was accompanied by the bond markets moving down. Such a non-confirmation is encouraging in its implications, as the markets are still taking seriously the transitory inflation messaging in light of the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI. Seems like we‘re in for a few relatively stable weeks of Treasury yields undeperforming inflation expectations before the yield climb returns:
(…) The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Thursday, May 20, 2021
Gold Rebounds After Fainting Due to Inflation Spike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold recovered after a downward response to the surge in inflation. What’s next for the yellow metal?Gold rebounded after an initially bearish reaction to the BLS report showing that inflation soared 4.2% in April year-to-year. This means we have an inflation annual rate doubling the Fed’s target and the highest since the Great Recession as the chart below shows.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
The Growing Market of New Crypto / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Submissions
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Bitcoin CRASH! Nicehash Freezes Withdrawals in Crypto's BLOOD BATH 2021 / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: HGR
The crypto mania bubble has finally BURST! All of the crypto's have gone into a free fall crash led by Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Doge coin and so on, all CRASHING, with exchanges and services halting withdrawals through use of BS press releases such as security hacks, much as I have been warning would happen for several months as to why no one should hold their funds with Nicehash or in any crypto's, transfer to coinbase and SPEND IT, don't HODDLE as many of the noob crypto miners have been doing, now locked into freefalling markets! Where any bounce will prove temporary to what amounts as a new bear market for most crypto's.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Coronavirus was a Test and we FAILED / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: James_Quinn
“The Truth, when you finally chase it down, is almost always far worse than your darkest visions and fears.” ~ Hunter S. Thompson
I think Hunter S. Thompson is being proven right by revelations becoming obvious daily. I’m a natural skeptic, so I rarely believe anything I’m told without verifying facts, analyzing data and understanding the motivation of those making declarations and assertions. For most of my life I thought I generally understood how the world worked.
Doubts about my understanding began to creep into my mind between 2000 and 2008, as I watched my government cover-up the truth about 9-11, use it to institute an Orwellian surveillance state through the Patriot Act, invade Iraq based upon a false narrative of WMD and links to 9/11, and watching those controlling the Federal Reserve create the dot.com bubble and follow it up with a housing bubble – all done to benefit Wall Street banks, billionaires, connected politicians, and Deep State apparatchiks.
The national debt was $5.6 trillion in 2000, the budget was as close to balanced as it had been in decades, the defense budget ($300 billion) was at decades low as there was no major conflicts in the world, and term limits were still a legitimately discussed election issue. If someone was told on January 1, 2000 that in 2021 the national debt was going to hit $30 trillion, with annual deficits of $3 to $4 trillion, a defense budget of $750 billion as war looms on the near-term horizon, and all semblance of governing through legislation to benefit the citizenry had dissipated, they would have laughed, accused you of being a conspiracy nutjob, and said the nation would be a hyperinflationary banana republic with 50% interest rates if any of that came to pass. The truth is always far worse than your darkest visions and fears.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Will Precious Metals Investors Get the Last Laugh? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Financial markets have become a complete joke. From GameStop to Dogecoin to non-fungible tokens (NFTs), a plethora of assets have been pushed to laughable heights with the help of the Federal Reserve’s funny money.
Just about everyone, except for stone-faced Fed officials, seems to be in on the joke.
Dogecoin promoter and billionaire Tesla founder Elon Musk poked fun at cryptocurrencies and the U.S. dollar itself during his hosting duties last weekend on Saturday Night Live.
During the “Weekend Update” segment, Musk appeared in character as a cryptocurrency guru. He admitted Dogecoin began as a joke.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Is This The Most Exciting Healthcare Development Of The Year? / Companies / BioTech
By: FinancialMorningPost
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Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crypto mania bubble has finally BURST! All of the crypto's have gone into a free fall crash led by Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Doge coin and so on, all CRASHING, with exchanges and services halting withdrawals through use of BS press releases such as security hacks, much as I have been warning would happen for several months as to why no one should hold their funds with Nicehash or in any crypto's, transfer to coinbase and SPEND IT, don't HODLE as many of the noob crypto miners have been doing, now locked into freefalling markets!
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Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Stock Market Same Old Song and Dance – Almost / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Pendulum keeps swinging back into the S&P 500 bullish camp, as the Nasdaq rebound was mightily aided by rising long-dated Treasuries while value couldn‘t care less about their direction. Just as sharply the VIX rose, that steeply it retreated over the past two days, hinting that stocks are returning back to the old normal, which means about to go upwards. Option traders didn‘t agree that profoundly, but they aren‘t sending a trustworthy warning sign.
I care more about corporate bond markets returning to life, and the retreating yields once the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI has been digested. The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Given though the mammoth scale of money printing and fiscal injections that surely has the bond vigilantes rolling in their graves, it‘s miraculous that the bond markets aren‘t revolting more, much more. Okay, you may look at it as that the 10-year Treasury yield has more than tripled since August, but the low base (0.5% rate) is distorting the view. Plenty of room still before financial repression enters stage right even more noticeably (we are nowhere near the panic yield levels causing genuine hardship for the S&P 500), but we have time – I am looking for a reprieve in the Treasuries markets, which would help especially the tech sector recovery.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Being a Gold Bull Is Now Far Too Easy - Don’t Be Deceived / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Easy choices lead to a hard life (or at least losses), and because gold’s downside move is delayed, it’s extremely easy to be bullish on gold right now.
It’s easy to get carried away by the day-to-day price action, and it’s even easier to feel the emotions that other market participants are feeling while looking at the same short-term price action. Right now, it’s tempting to be bullish on gold. It’s “easy” to be bullish on gold while looking at what happened in the last 1.5 months. But what’s easy is rarely profitable in the long run.
“Easy choices – hard life. Hard choices – easy life” – Jerzy Gregorek
Let’s get beyond the day-to-day price swings. The Fed has been keeping the interest rates at ultra-low levels for many months, and it has just pledged to keep them low for a long time. The world is enduring the pandemic, and the amount of money that entered the system is truly astonishing. The savings available to investors skyrocketed. The USD Index has been beaten down from over 100 to about 90. And yet, gold is not at new highs. In fact, despite the 2020 attempt to rally above its 2011 high, gold’s price collapsed, and it invalidated the breakout above these all-important highs. It’s now trading just a few tens of dollars higher than it had been trading in 2013, right before the biggest slide of the recent years.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Gold Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Upside Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first portion of this research article, I highlighted the correlation between Gold and the US Dollar as well as the correlation between the US Dollar and the EURUSD and JPYUSD. The purpose of this example was to highlight the different phases of US Dollar appreciation vs depreciation compared to the EURUSD/JPYUSD. The EURUSD and JPYUSD are often compared to the US Dollar as major global currencies. Therefore, when the US Dollar moves into a depreciation phase, we expect to see the EURUSD and JPYUSD move into an appreciation phase.
How this correlated to the price of Gold and the phases of advancing vs declining precious metals is simple to understand. Gold will stall, or more broadly downward, while the US Dollar is within an advancing/appreciation phase. Gold will move higher or begin an upward trend bias when the US Dollar begins to generally weaken or moves into a declining/depreciation phase.
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Wednesday, May 19, 2021
The New Drug That Could Be Bigger Than Cannabis / Companies / Cannabis
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 / Companies / Investing 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is part 2 of 2 (part1) of my investing high risk tech stocks analysis that was first made available to Patrons who support my work: How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond
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- How to Get FREE Access to My Patreon Content for the Next 5 Years!
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- INVESTING IN HIGH RISK TECH STOCKS
- THE ONLY WAY TO GET THE BIG PAY OFFs
- High Risk Tech Stocks Short List
- TESLA DISCOUNTING THE FUTURE
- 4 More High Risk Tech Stocks
- Who Wants to live Forever?
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering Market Technical Excess Top Phase? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research series, I highlighted the broad market cycles and what technical analysts call the “Excess Phase Top” process, which usually takes place after the market’s peak and set up a downward price trend. There are a number of technical setups that take place throughout this process. Today, I will be exploring the charts of Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Bitcoin (BTC) to see where they are in the process.
The suggestion I am making by highlighting these market trends and setups is that a Cash Position is a viable allocation of capital away from risks and losses. Many traders don’t view a cash position as a properly allocated use of capital. We believe taking a cash position at the right times can and does provide very clear benefits, including:
- Eliminating risks of further losses/drawdowns.
- Setting up a process of protecting cash and waiting for a confirmed re-entry trigger.
- Avoiding the failure of buying into a declining market – which is one of the biggest faults of active traders.
- Using the Cash position as a hedge against shifting currency/market valuations.
Remember, in many cases, broad market downtrends are often associated with bigger trends in currencies and global market sectors. Chasing these trends can lead to further risks if you are not careful and skilled in your trading decisions. Keeping your capital in a Cash Allocation/Position is often the easiest and safest way for you to ride out volatile downside price trends and allows you to re-deploy your cash into new trades when the time is right.
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Gold Watch Out as Price May Be Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Move Upwards / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Although Gold has continued to drift downward after reaching a peak near $2089.20 in early August 2020, our Custom Gold Inverse Trending Index suggests this weakness has actually built a very strong momentum base – preparing for a big move higher.
The relationship of Gold to the US Dollar is a fairly widely known correlation. When the US Dollar is weaker, Gold tends to rally. When the US Dollar is stronger, Gold tends to be weaker. Yet the combination of EURUSD and JPYUSD (plotted in INVERSE) in combination to the trend of the US Dollar related to Gold is difficult to ignore. Let’s explore this unique correlation a bit deeper.
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Why the Demand for US Real Estate Licenses May Soon Fall into a Sinkhole / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
By this measure, the housing boom may be nearing an end
A lot of people who've lost jobs have turned to getting their real estate licenses as a path to prosperity.
Part of the mindset that selling houses is worth a try is the belief that prices go up most of the time.
As the Wall Street Journal noted on March 21:
[S]urging prices are persuading tens of thousands more Americans to try their hands at selling real estate.
There have been many other periods of time when home prices have trended higher. However, that's not always the case. As you know, home prices sank significantly following the subprime mortgage meltdown of nearly a decade-and-a-half ago.
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Semiconductor Equipment Maker ASML Is at the Center of the Global Chip Shortage / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
I hope you’re not renting a car anytime soon. Tourists flocking to sunny spots like Hawaii and Florida are having a difficult time. The average car rental on the island of used to cost $50 a day. Now a basic Toyota Camry in Hawaii will set you back around $400 a day. Some desperate travelers are even turning to U-Haul vans because rental car lots are empty.When COVID hit, car rental giants Avis and Hertz held fire sales. In fact, they dumped over half a million cars last year. Now, they can’t buy new cars. If you’ve been following along, you know Ford started shutting the doors on its factories back in February. Now it says some of them will be closed until August!
GM, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, and Volvo and other automakers were forced to idle their plants, too. Ford says it expects to produce 1.1 million fewer vehicles this year than it had planned. According to top consulting firm AlixPartners, automakers will lose $61 billion in sales this year. The reason?
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Could This Be The Hottest Investment Sector For 2021? / Companies / BioTech
By: FinancialMorningPost
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
TESLA Tech Stock Bubble BURSTS! Stock Price Heading for CRASH to below $400 / Companies / Electric Cars
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now entering my forecast window for a significant correction which should present an opportunity to accumulate into most the AI mega-trend stocks many of which have galloped ahead to new all time highs this year, trending in the opposite direction to the much higher risk stocks such as those that heavily populate the media blitzkrieging Cathy Wood's ARK funds i.e. their biggest holding Tesla is down 4.5% year to date whilst AI numero Uno Google is up 32%! Which this analysis seeks to resolve in high probability buying levels in advance of an expected correction during May.
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