Category: General Election 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, December 05, 2019
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this series of videos in the countdown to polling day, December 12th conclude in a detailed seats forecast for the Torys, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP, analysis and forecasts based on 9 key lessons learned from the 2017 general election that I covered in an earlier video where as the opinion polls have consisnteyl been wrong for now 4 UK elections in a row and thus should be ignored whilst the actual most accurate preduictor of UK elections has consistently been my house prices based forecasts and average earnings growth. For this election the 9 key lessons learned resolve into 5 pieces of in-depth analysis that aim to accuratelty forecast the outcome of the December 12th Vote.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
Labour's manifesto promise is to plant 2 billion trees by 2040 is clearly a figure plucked out of this air much like most of Labour's manifesto. Still if Labour managed to achieve even half that target that it would be an huge achievement. However there is a fly in the ointment and that is the behaviour of inept Labour councils across Britain such as Sheffield's who over the past few years have been on a TREE FELLING rampage, trees that have been felled in their thousands are typically equivalent in volume to about 200 saplings planted, many of which fail to survive.
Sheffield has seen virtually every tree lined street hit by chainsaw massacres.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
Here's examples of dodgy Lib Dem leaflets being posted into the letter boxes of Sheffield voters. Especially those living in the Hallam constituency where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems that is likely to see Labour lose their seat to the Lib Dems after the disastrous term of Jared O' Mara. That follows the disaster that is the city council and it's policy on felling thousands of Sheffield's street trees at a time of climate catastrophe.
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Sunday, December 01, 2019
Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tutition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!
All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!
AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!
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Thursday, November 28, 2019
Will YouGov General Election Forecast 2019 be as Wrong as their REAL Forecast was for 2017? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.
Apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what the mainstream press has been liberally regurgitating in response to the release of their MRP forecast for 2019 that predicts the Tories are heading for a 68 seat majority on 359 seats up from 315, with Labour falling from the current 242 to 211.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.
The latest poll of opinion polls (BBC) puts the the Tories on 41%, Labour on 29% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
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