Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, August 11, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market continues to rally. V-shaped rallies are uncommon, but not impossible. Today’s headlines:
- V-shaped bounce
- Volatility is falling
- % of stocks above their 50 dma is rising
- AAII sentiment crashed
- NAAIM sentiment crashed
Saturday, August 10, 2019
Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market and bond yields recovered today from an early morning decline. Meanwhile, financial markets have exhibited some extreme flight-to-quality over the past few days. Today’s headlines:
- Lots of gaps
- Put/Call ratio remains high
- Flight to quality: part 1
- Flight to quality: part 2
- Similarities between today and 2016
- Bullish Percent falling to a new low
- Gold spiked (again)
Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Where's the Stock Market bottom? Is this IT? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend. Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT? The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?”
Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for. This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets. Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we've been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders.
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Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Stock Market Setting Up for Dead-Cat Bounce or Liquidation Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The last week of July/first week of August was quite interesting as volatility is finally back. The bears got their resurrection by closing below the ongoing "sh*t hits the fan level" at 2955 on Thursday August 1. Essentially, active traders and investors had to de-risk and go into more defensive positions. The risk-off scenario continues with the price action confirmation below both the key trending daily 8/20EMAs and also the 2955 level. Obviously, a lot of growth stocks and higher beta names got hit hard and the weakness will continue until stabilization occurs.
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Monday, August 05, 2019
Stock Market Intermediate Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, August 05, 2019
Is This The Start Of The Next Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets. Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up. So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months.
Friday, August 02, 2019
Small Cap Stocks Setup A Very Rare & Interesting Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers have identified a very rare type of price pattern that is typically associated with explosive trend changes and trends. We call this type of pattern a “Sandwich” pattern because of how price reacts within a range. The IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, is illustrating a nearly perfect example of this pattern right now.
Daily IWM chart (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)
This close up view of the Daily IWM chart highlights the Sandwich pattern over the most recent 5 trading days and how price enters this volatile period, rotates around within a range, then settles near the upper or lower end of the range before a price breakout occurs. Notice the earlier Sandwich pattern setup and how price settled near the bottom of the range before a downside price leg pushed the price much lower.
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Friday, August 02, 2019
The Stock Market Fell and Volatility Spiked. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P fell Thursday on trade war-related news and volatility spiked. Today’s headlines:
- More economic weakness in manufacturing.
- Long streak of bad economic surprises
- Stock market’s volatility spiked
- AAII sentiment
- Short term bounce ahead for stocks?
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Stock Market Bearish Signs from the Fed, Economy, and Volume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Stocks fell Wednesday as the Fed cut interest rates. Today’s headlines:
- Rate cut and stocks
- The economic expansion cycle
- Manufacturing weakness
- Stock market’s volume
- U.S. Dollar breakout
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Next Recession Robust Case For The Largest Stock Market Losses In History / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
Stock market indexes are currently at record or near record highs, even as the chances for recession within the next 1-2 years seem to be rising. So how great would the losses be from these record heights, if the business cycle continues and we get another round of recession and bear market?
Thursday, August 01, 2019
US Fed Rattles Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post.
We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook. The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel. Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in. Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”.
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Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast and AI Investing Update (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of my July stock market trend forecast update. Much as expected the correction ended and resolved in a rally towards the trend forecast. With the Dow currently deviating from the trend forecast by about +1.5%.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Expensive: Traumatic Correction Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
As S&P climbs to new highs and closes another week into 3000s levels, we believe that the ground underneath is starting to slip. The economy per say may not be the problem. However the same cannot be said about valuation. The S&P500 is valued over 100% to its traditional mean and median levels on price to earning ratio. The one month treasury yield is now above US 2 year and 10 year yield thus effectively inverting. Money is often borrowed in the short term markets. A rise in short term rate is a warning signal of the coming mayhem. Rising yield will force models to reset after certain threshold are hit and this automatically converts into equity market cash outs. This sets of a chain reaction as sell momentum can spread across.
THe current S&P earning yield is 4.5% down from 6% thus contracting the returns investors make. This becomes even worrying when the short term yield is closing in on the earning yield at its fastest pace in over 10 years. We believe traumatic correction is on its way.
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Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Medium-long Term Bullish Case From a Trend Following Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market is going nowhere as traders prepare for a rate cut. Today’s headlines:
- The stock market’s MACD
- S&P’s indecision is coming to an end
- Put/Call remains very low
- Finance stocks are finally going up
- Materials are no longer lagging the stock market.
Monday, July 29, 2019
US Stocks Seem To Be Following Our Predictions – Get Ready / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this multi-part technology sector research post, we highlighted our previous research and predictive modeling result that suggest the US and global stock markets are poised for a peak/roll-over within the next 30+ days. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside.
Part of our effort to help skilled technical traders is to provide research posts, like these, that highlight trade setups and allow our followers to understand the type of trading opportunities that are present for them to consider in the future. We believe the next 30+ days will prove our predictions are accurate and that the US/Global stock markets will roll-over into a new bearish trend – likely breaking downward near August 19, 2019.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
Stock Market - Get Ready! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we near the important date of August 19, 2019, and we watch how the markets are reacting based on our earlier predictions, it is becoming evident that the US stock markets and global stock markets are following our predictions very well. The fact that these markets are doing almost exactly what we predicted months ago suggests that our call for an August 19, 2019 breakdown in the US/Global markets should also align with price activity very well.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Many Stock Investors & Traders Expect a Correction Over the Next Few Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
After a big 7 month rally, many investors and traders are expecting a pullback/correction sometime in the next few months. This begs the question: if everyone thinks this way, will they all be right? Today’s headlines:
- A big 7 month rally.
- “The stock market today is just like 1998.”
- Volatility continues to fall.
- Semiconductors v-shaped recovery
- Gold:silver ratio continues to fall
- U.S. Dollar’s extremely low volatility
These headlines are from CNBC:
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Next Recession: The Case For A 36% Stock Market Plunge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
If there is a recession in the next one to two years, there is also likely to be another bear market for stocks. Based on their experience over their lifetimes, many investors are expecting a "normal" bear market in that event, perhaps in the 20% to 25% range in terms of losses.
However, we are not in normal times, and we have seen a fundamental change in stock valuations over the last more than twenty years. We have also seen a major change in the losses experienced in bear markets, relative to prior decades.
This analysis takes a detailed visual look at the history of the S&P 500 stock index since 1962, and shows how the fundamentals have changed since the mid 1990s. Using simple averages, it then shows why the base case for a new bear market could be a two year inflation-adjusted loss of 36%, which would exceed anything experienced in the 1960s, 1980s or 1990s.
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Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Risk:Reward over the next few months Doesn’t favor Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The past 7 months saw stocks and bonds surge together (bond yields fell). With stocks trending sideways, bond yields are also bottoming. Today’s headlines:
- Yield curve un-inverted
- Leading indicator for the economy & industrial production
- Put/Call ratio tanked
- Consumer Staples surge
- This defensive sector is no longer outperforming
- Silver’s golden cross
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Stock Market Breadth Warning Signs for the Stock Market’s Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the stock market trades on light volume, various breadth indicators are flashing short term warning signs. Today’s headlines:
- A real breadth divergence.
- Weaker than average economic growth
- Lagging margin debt
- Baltic Dry Index surge
- Gold:silver ratio
- Netflix
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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