Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, December 13, 2019
Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged in December. The statement was rather hawkish, while the dot-plot rather dovish. What does such a mix imply for the yellow metal?
Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged
Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on December 10-11th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent:
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Thursday, December 12, 2019
Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Very little happened in the precious metals market both yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading – at least so far. We will take this opportunity to discuss something that we haven’t done in a while – silver stocks. To be clear, we’re not going to discuss the silver mining stock selection, as that’s something our proprietary algorithms do on a daily basis. And yes, during the recent long trade, the gain on the individual gold and silver miners was bigger than the one from the GDX ETF.
Instead, we’re going to take a look at this sector’s performance and compare it to one very similar case from the past. Yes, just one, which may not looks like an appropriate base for drawing conclusions, but the level of similarity makes it definitely relevant to the current situation. So, without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the SIL ETF – the proxy for silver miners.
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Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Gold-linked exchange-traded products are growing in popularity with investors. Assets held by gold ETFs have grown 38% globally in 2019.
In October, according to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows to reach a new record high total gold holding of 2,900 tonnes – at least on paper.
There is good reason to be skeptical of whether all these “gold” vehicles actually hold physical metal sufficient to back their market capitalizations on a 1:1 basis. Some of them very well might; others almost certainly don’t.
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver, and mining stocks reversed practically exactly at their double triangle reversal point and the short positions that we opened along with taking profits off the table from the previous long positions, became profitable almost instantly. There’s quite a decline to catch here, and it seems that only a small part thereof had already taken place.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MarketsToday
- Technical analysis update for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
- Long-term bullish continuation anticipated once current correction is completed.
- Looks like a deeper retracement may come in the near-term, before resumption of the rally.
Sunday, December 08, 2019
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book back in 2016 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp where he accurately predicted the implosion of the US credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.
He's made a lot of great calls right here on this podcast this year and it's great to have him back on with us. Greg, thanks for the time again and welcome. How are you?
Greg Weldon: I'm great, Mike. My pleasure, anytime. You do a great job, so I'm always happy to contribute.
Mike Gleason: Well, it's great to get people like you on as frequently as we have. We're very fortunate, so thank you. Well, Greg as we're talking here on Wednesday afternoon, the stock markets sold off yesterday and we got a rally in metals, this morning is as if by magic in the equity markets are levitating and metals are being sold.
Sunday, December 08, 2019
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Technical Analysis is the theory that price relates all news, fundamental and correlative future expectations into current and recent price activity. It is the theory that price is the ultimate indicator and that charts paint a very clear picture for those individuals that are capable of understanding the message that is being presented.
In this research article, we are going to highlight the technical analysis components that we believe are painting a very clear picture that an “early warning” signal is flashing very brightly in the US and Global markets right now.
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Sunday, December 08, 2019
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
We all know that the gold and silver Commitments of Traders are very extended and at levels of commercial net shorts and large spec net longs that tend to be in place at tops in the metals. Well, the metals topped in the summer, so what does that tell us?
For one thing it tells us that bull market rules are different from bear market rules as per this post from August as gold was topping.
Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders for This Week
Read full article... Read full article...Listen sports fans, I just call ’em as I see ’em. The Commitments of Traders for gold is as extended as it has been lately and open interest is significant. Speculators are all-in here and while we note that bull market rules are different than bear market rules, extended is extended. Gold is vulnerable to pullback by this measure, especially since the gold price is in the target zone we laid out months ago.
Friday, December 06, 2019
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
Gold prices pushed sharply higher on Tuesday but have stalled ever since. Has the recovery rally completed? I think it has.
Leave it to Trump to go and say something that causes the equity markets to print a two-day drop that wipes out more than a week of gains. But the tone in the markets might be changing.
The US president went from saying that the trade deal might get delayed until after the elections on Tuesday to saying that talks with China are going “very well” on Wednesday. His shift in tone carried through the markets with the S&P 500 recovering and posting on a bullish engulfing candle on a daily chart yesterday.
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Friday, December 06, 2019
Precious Metals Ratio Charts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I can remember there were times during the PM complex bull market before 2011 that sometimes the PM metals would rally but the PM stocks were very weak. Then there were times when the PM stock would rise while the PM metals moved very little. At the time of those occurrences it was bewildering as common sense suggested they should all move together and the stronger the metals moved so should the PM stocks. I don’t have a good answer for the bifurcation at times only that it can happen.
This first chart for tonight is the old ratio combo chart which has the Gold:XAU ratio on top with the XAU on the bottom. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the XAU. Going all the way back to 1996 you can see that gold outperformed the XAU in parabolic fashion until the top in January of 2016 which lasted about 20 years. When that 20 year parabolic arc gave way in early 2016 that broke the back of gold outperforming the XAU.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Through the first half of 2019, silver significantly underperformed gold. Put another way, gold gained relative to silver – culminating in the gold:silver ratio registering a 27-year high of 95:1.
That market signal was received by the mining industry. Since there are few primary silver producers, and those that do mine silver also typically mine gold and some base metals, precious metals miners had an incentive to invest more into gold production and less into silver.
Precious metals analyst Adam Hamilton wrote in a recent commentary, “As silver wasted away in recent years, its bombed-out prices heavily impaired silver mines’ ability to generate operating cash flows and profits. The silver miners were forced to adapt and shifted their focus and capital into adding gold production rather than boosting silver output.”
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Manufacturing Goes Deeper Into Recession, Yet Gold Remains Muted. Why? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ISM Manufacturing index fell 0.2 point to a reading of 48.1 in November. However, gold struggles to find momentum. What is going on exactly?
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Slumps Further
The Institute for Supply Management announced that its index of national factory activity dropped from 48.3 in October to 48.1 last month. The number was below expectations and it also remained below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction – shrinking for the fourth straight month. In other words, the manufacturing sector is still in recession.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
When gold’s price reached $850 per ounce in January 1980, it seemed as if nothing would stop the runaway train that was headed straight for $1000 per ounce. But it was stopped, and began sliding downhill quickly.
By June 1982, two and one-half years later, gold’s price had declined by sixty-five percent. At close to $300 per ounce, the price of gold seemed farther away from the $1000 mark than ever before.
At $300 per ounce, the eventual low for gold of $250 was a short distance away. But that downside price did not come until seventeen years later, in late 1999. As far as $1000 gold is concerned, that did not occur until September 2009, almost thirty years after gold peaked at $850 in January 1980.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research and predictive modeling systems have nailed Gold over the past 15+ months. We expected Gold to rally above $1750 before the end of this year, but the global trade wars and news cycles stalled the rally in Gold over the past 2 months. Now, it appears Gold is poised for another rally pushing much higher.
But wait, if you’re thinking I’m just another one of those traders who is always bullish on gold, just know I have been telling the truth about where gold was headed (lower) for years, but finally, the tide has changed!
Gold broke down from a bull market in 2012/2013 – nearly 7 years ago. Now, Gold has broken resistance near $1375 and is technically in a full-fledged Bull Market. The importance of this is the 7-year cycle and how the rotation in Gold, between the high near $1923 and the low near $1045 represent an $878 price range. The upside (expansion) rally in Gold may very well move in expanding Fibonacci price structures – just like it did in 2005 through 2012. If this is the case, then we may expect to see an ultimate peak price in Gold well above $3500.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Just when most traders thought that the previous week is going to end in the red for gold, something exceptional happened. The USD Index reversed after rallying, and gold rallied sharply in response. In the end, gold ended the week in the green by forming a clear weekly reversal.
That was actually the second weekly reversal that we saw recently. Why is this important? Because of what happened shortly after we saw the opposite of it not so long ago.
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Monday, December 02, 2019
The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Teaser: Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. Yet we’re supposed to make perfectly rational decisions – so, how do we cope with the unknown? We tell narratives, and form our decisions around them! Let’s explore the narratives in the financial markets for it reveals their importance to the gold market.
Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. There are not only many known unknowns in the world, but the same can’t be said of unknown unknowns. We simply do not known what we don’t know. In other words, the problem is not risk. The notion of risk implies that we can compute probability. This is what the mainstream economists assume: we know the odds, so there is a single optimizing solution to each problem. But the real issue is that we do not know the probabilities, because we even do not know how the world works. You see, the probability applies in a casino but not in a real world. You are certainly aware of substantial difference between roulette or weather forecasting, and the scope of new inventions or the prospect of war, elections or the asset prices. As Keynes wrote (at least once we agree with him), “About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know.”
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Saturday, November 30, 2019
When Fed Says That Everything Is Fine, Smart People Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed has published this month the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. Generally speaking, the level of vulnerabilities in the financial system has moved little since the publication of the May edition of the report. The most of the US central banks’ observations are reassuring: investor appetite for risk generally appears to have returned to a level in the middle of its historical range, while the core of the financial sector appears resilient, with leverage low and funding risk limited relative to the levels of recent decades.
What is very important in light of the causes of the Great Recession, the largest U.S. banks remain strongly capitalized, while household borrowing remains at a modest level relative to income, as one can see in the chart below. Isn’t that splendid news? Isn’t this time different? It’s bad news for the gold market?
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Thursday, November 28, 2019
Central Banks’ Gold Buying and Repatriation Spree / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Central banks’ purchases and repatriations of gold have caught our attention once again. In October, Serbia’s central bank bought 9 tons of gold, following in the footsteps of many other central banks that have been adding to their gold reserves recently, including Russia, Hungary, and Poland.
Nine tons may seem to be a modest purchase, but the transaction was worth $438 million at $1,503 an ounce. And it has raised Serbia’s gold reserves to 30.4 tons, constituting about 10 percent of the country’s total reserves. Importantly, the National Bank of Serbia could carry on with its purchases, as it got clear message from the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic to continue boosting gold reserves in order to be better prepared for the economic crisis: “I think we’ll continue doing that because of what we see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving,” Vucic told the press.
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Thursday, November 28, 2019
Another Precious Metals’ Reversal Coming Right Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold reversed yesterday, and so did the rest of the precious metal sector. Mining stocks and – what’s important – silver showed strength relative to gold and rallied even more than gold. Silver’s strength is important because it indicates that we are already in the second half of the short-term upswing in the precious metals market. If there only was a tool that would provide us with a more precise time prediction… Oh wait, there is one. And it just worked perfectly yesterday.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Checking in on Gold & Silver Sentiment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector remains in a correction. The miners have shown some positive signs but are not ready to move yet because the metals likely have more correction ahead.
Technical support levels can provide us with low risk buy opportunities but combine that with sentiment data and we increase our odds of success.
One reason why the sector is stuck in a correction is because the net speculative position in Gold remains stubbornly high at 44% of open interest. Following interim peaks in the 2000s, the net speculative position usually fell to 30% and even 20% at times before Gold began its next impulsive advance.
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