Category: Stock Markets 2013
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, November 11, 2013
Stock Market Top Are We There Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - Important top formation is in the making.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Are Investors Too Bullish on Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Clif_Droke
Just how far has the bullish sentiment of independent investors recovered since the 2009 bottom? Pretty far indeed.
Below is a chart showing the cumulative AAII investor sentiment going back to 2006. As you can see, the typical small investor had a mostly bearish outlook on stocks from late 2007 through the end of 2009. The small traders then turned slowly bullish on equities in 2010 and have been increasingly more enthusiastic about stocks ever since. As of last week, this indicator made a new multi-year high which shows you just how much investor sentiment has rebounded. This has caused many to wonder if investors have become too bullish on stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 09, 2013
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
After a rally Monday, pullback Tuesday, the market rallied back to the SPX 1775 all time high Thursday morning. Then the market had its biggest one day reversal in quite a while hitting SPX 1746 just before the close. Friday, however, the market completely reversed recovering all of Thursday’s loss ending the week at SPX 1771. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%, and the DJ World index lost 0.4%. On the economic front nearly all the reports were positive. On the uptick: factory orders, leading indicators, ISM services, Q3 GDP, consumer credit, nonfarm payrolls, personal income/spending, PCE prices, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims declined. On the downtick: consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate rose. Next week we get reports Industrial production, the twin deficits and the NY FED.
Saturday, November 09, 2013
Financials Suggest No Stock Market Correction Yet...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
When a market is getting ready to correct for whatever reason, the financial stocks would be one of the leaders to the down side. Yesterday surely looked as if that was the case not only for the financial stocks, but for the entire stock market. Today, we saw exactly what we shouldn't see if that correction was upon us. Lost key moving averages were taken right back and in many cases, on large volume. Some of the financial stocks had huge ramps higher. Best candles in many months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 08, 2013
Stock Market Damage Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The big boys are doing damage control after the payroll numbers (entirely fictitious, of course). The bounce is happening faster than I can write about it. This is the third revision of my letter that started at 10:00 am.
The 50% retracement level is 1760.37, just beneath Short-term resistance. It appears that that resistance has stopped the retracement rally. This activity is merely to “run the stops” on any recent shorts who now show a loss. The best course of action is not to put stops on short positions. In fact, this is a good place to put in the final short positions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 08, 2013
Stock Market Warning: Margin Debt Hits Record-High $401 Billion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: I had an interesting conversation the other day with a friend of mine who asked a very compelling question: with margin debt in the equities market hitting a new all-time high—$401 billion on the NYSE in September—is this a sign of a market top?
To find out what this really means, we have to dig a little deeper into how this can affect the equities market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 08, 2013
Positive Trends Continue to Drive the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Donald_W_Dony
The S&P 500 has enjoyed one of the best prolonged upward trends of any global stock index over the past 55 months. And that long term trend shows no signs of slowing down.
On a 5-year perspective, the U.S. index is continuing to trade above its primary trend line. Only a decline below this line would suggest the bull market is finished (Chart 1).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 08, 2013
Strong U.S. GDP Growth, But the Stock Market Tanks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Before the opening bell we learned that Q3 GDP came in at 2.8%, the its highest compounded annual rate of change in six quarters. The markets weren’t impressed. The S&P 500 opened higher, hitting its 0.23% intraday high in the first fifteen minutes of trading. The index then sold off in in a pair of waves to close the day with a loss of 1.32%, the biggest decline since late August. Bloomberg speculated that the unexpected expansion in GDP could prompt the Fed to start tapering — the old “good news is bad news” meme. Was today a warm-up for tomorrow’s employment report?
Thursday, November 07, 2013
Extraordinarily Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Brian_Bloom
The Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing has given rise to an all time low in the money multiplier which, in turn, has a higher probability of rising than falling. Notwithstanding the recent explosion of personal debt, Chart #5 above shows an emerging propensity of the US public to want to save a higher percentage of their income and/or pay down debts. Therefore, the most likely driver of a rising ratio will be a rise in savings relative to money stock which, in turn, will place a downward pressure on corporate earnings. It follows that continuation of QE by the Fed will do nothing other than push the money multiplier ratio lower. Therefore QE is becoming impotent as a strategy for driving the US economy. By extension, if the savings rate continues along its early rising trend, this will likely be accompanied by recessionary conditions which, in turn, will place a downward pressure on Price:Earnings ratios.
Wednesday, November 06, 2013
Stock Market Bulls Pull Back on Early Losses / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Monday’s nascent gain was challenged by early morning losses. However, bulls were able to regain the majority of such losses by the close of trade.
The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 had the best of the day’s action, going as far to post a modest gain. The Nasdaq 100 has a relative lead over the Russell 2000, and is attempting to regain relative strength against the S&P. If there is an index to gain tomorrow, one of these is it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 06, 2013
Stock Market Rally Goes on Hold / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: After a two-day advance, the S&P 500 took a small step back today. The index opened lower and sold off to its -0.69% intraday low just as the 10AM ISM Non-Manufacturing (aka Services) Report came in better than forcast. The index promptly rallied to its intraday high during the lunch hour. But today’s high was -0.05% below yesterday’s close. The index ended the day with a -0.28% loss. Today’s selling on so-so volume was probably attibutable to caution in advance of the big economic reports on Thursday and Friday, most notably our first look at Q3 GDP and the October Employment Report.
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
Why November May Not Be So Safe Stock Market Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Since the beginning of the year, key stock indices have provided investors with hefty gains; with the S&P 500 having increased more than 23% from January to October. Other key stock indices, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ composite index, have provided similar returns.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
VIX Master Cycle Low Means Falling Stock Prices Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
For most of the year, I believed that the March 15 low was the low for the year. It may remain the low for 2013, but a possibility exists that it may not be.
Let me explain.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
ObamaCare and Inflation to the Stock Markets Rescue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Michael_Pento
The market averages continue to set record highs, as investors are forced by the Fed into stock market speculation due to artificially-suppressed interest rates. But neither our central bank nor corporate measures deployed solely to increase earnings per share while ignoring revenue declines (see IBM's announcement of a stock buyback) can hide the fact that the underlying economic growth is deteriorating.
Monday, November 04, 2013
Stock Market Pop-n-Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
TNX is pulling back from its impulsive high this morning. The pattern may not be complete to the upside, but there certainly is room for a short reprieve from time to time. The Cycles Model suggests that Treasuries may decline through Thanksgiving before a turn higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 04, 2013
SP500, NAS Stock Market New Highs v Your Individual Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Michael_Noonan
Markets tend to rally during the last two months of the year, but like the indexes, that is a statement of averages, and averages do not always tell the whole story. It is not a secret that the Lying Ben schemers have been responsible for propping up the volume- deficient, individual-investor-absent stock market. What is of critical importance for any investor is to measure his/her portfolio against the overall market.
Sunday, November 03, 2013
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week by making new all time highs everyday until the FED concluded its FOMC meeting. Then after hitting SPX 1775 earlier that morning the market pulled back for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%, and the DJ World index was -0.60%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones 9 to 6. On the uptick: industrial production, capacity utilization, Case-Shiller, business inventories, the CPI, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, the monetary base and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: pending home sales, retail sales, the PPI, consumer confidence, the ADP and the WLEI. Next week we try again for Q3 GDP (est. +1.9% to 2.4%), monthly Payrolls and PCE prices.
Saturday, November 02, 2013
Stock Market Ends Week Fractionally Off its All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short:
The S&P 500 began the month with a daily gain of 0.29%, snapping a two-day decline and salvaging a small weekly gain of 0.11%. The high point of the week, and I mean literally, was Tuesday’s all-time closing high at 1,771.95, a level that was briefly surpassed shortly after Wednesday’s open, which was the first of the modest two-day mid-week slump. Today’s economic news was light, although the 10 AM better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing report assisted the index in reaching its 0.52% intraday high about 5 minutes later. Next week will bring us some major economic updates, most notably the first estimate of Q3 GDP, Personal Incomes and Outlays and the Employment Report for October.
Friday, November 01, 2013
Stocks Secular Bull and Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don’t know.
One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus “eternal” — the type of bull market we fantasize about).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
How to Protect Your Portfolio as Government Debt Cripples America / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: Whenever I’m asked what I think has the biggest potential impact not only on the stock market, but also on our way of life, I always point to the continued increase in government debt.
Over the short term, the Federal Reserve has attempted to stimulate the economy partially by buying U.S. Treasuries. Under normal monetary policy, the Federal Reserve only directly impacts short-term interest rates. To reduce long-term interest rates, the Fed began buying U.S. Treasuries, pushing up the price and lowering the yield.
Read full article... Read full article...