Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
US Dollar Bottom Delusional Expectations in face of US Recession / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Delusional seems to be mental state of investment community as September approaches. Nonsensical talk of U.S. dollar having put in place a secular, or long-term, bottom is widespread. That EU economic growth rate might slow somewhat is interesting, but may be no more than statistical noise. That growth rate of Chinese economy might slow from “11+%” to “9%” is interesting, but is hardly a “dramatic” slowing.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 22, 2008
Global Economic Rebalancing Signals US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Key News
• The U.K. economy stagnated unexpectedly in the second quarter, ending the nation's
longest stretch of economic growth in more than a century. (Bloomberg)
British pound futures 60 min: News of stagnation not taken well. Ouch!
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Friday, August 22, 2008
The Real US Dollar Crisis Is Ahead / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Stathis
I'm going to be brief here. For those who have been celebrating dollar rally, don't get too excited because it's only a standard retracement, much like the U.S. stock market has experienced since reaching lows a few weeks ago. Of course the market has a long way to go down as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
The Reason for US Dollar Strength / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
If you’ve been wondering why the dollar has rallied so sharply, then stop wondering. The kind folks over at the Wall Street Journal have framed up the situation rather well. We’ve been keeping our Members up to speed on the relative game playing out in the currency market. Basically, even as the US economy fails to show any absolute improvement, the relative weakness from its competitors (primarily Europe and the United Kingdom) is driving their respective currencies lower and sending investment capital into the buck.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
Strong US Dollar Investment Implications for Stocks and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Mohamed El-Erian is the former highly successful manager of the Harvard endowment and current head of PIMCO. In an August 15, 2008 Bloomberg interview, he makes some comments which may help us to begin to understand the recent surge in the dollar in the face of less-than-ideal U.S. economic conditions.
"Currencies move not because they ought to but because they are allowed to. Previously rigid currencies are going to become more flexible because it is in their own interest."
Sunday, August 17, 2008
The US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Dollar ended the week with a sharp rally that confirmed the recent breakout and the base building that began following the March 2008 low of 70.70, analysis at the time suggested that the Dollar was heavily oversold and projected a target towards $78, which is now in reach following the USD Index close of 77.15 on Friday.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
Yikes! Major Reversal in Fortunes for the US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Tell us again about the safe haven qualities of gold? It has been going straight down ever since Russia decided to spread its wings again. Maybe it’s just a correction. But maybe it is, as it has always seemed to us, that gold is only a reflection of global purchasing power that simply ebbs and flows with the world’s money and its safe have reputation is just that, reputation. And in case anyone was confused as to the world’s money; it is the financial gurus’ favorite whipping boy—the good old US dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
The Strong US Dollar Illusion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of foreign economies to “decouple” from the United States. Investors should not take the bait.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
US Dollar Short-Term Rebalancing of Expectations, Long Term Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Recent price action in the foreign exchange market in our estimation is a function of a short-term rebalancing in expectations of global growth and demand for commodities. When combined with the pause in the rate hike campaign at the European Central Bank and growing uncertainty regarding the prospects for economic growth in the United States dollar bulls that have been lurking in the shadows for the past several years have re-emerged with gusto over the past two weeks. Although, the late summer rally in the dollar that has seen its value increase roughly 8% against the Euro, the case for a sustainable reversal in the fortunes of the greenback is neither persuasive nor compelling. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
The Case For and Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
We have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattling, even to seasoned investors. An uptick in volatility tends to be associated with an unwinding of leveraged positions. This is also the case this time, but the types of trades being unwound look very different from those just a few months ago when the “carry trade” was the talk of the day. To shed some light on recent activity, we will focus on some key forces we believe act on the dollar and the currency markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Spreading Global Economic Weakness Is Positive for US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Yesterday, the dollar rallied hard against the euro. And today I want to tell you what I think is happening. Let's start with a question ...
What happened to decoupling, the idea that other economies were immune to weakness in the U.S.?
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
U.S. Dollar Soars Triggering Major Currency Breakouts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate . The euro fell the most in almost eight years, pushing the currency to a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.
The euro dropped below $1.50 for the first time since February after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be "particularly weak'' through the third quarter.
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Friday, August 08, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Cai
Is the recent upward movement in the dollar a signal that it has bottomed out, and will now move back to a higher level? Or is it just a bull trap for those who are long the dollar?
Despite reports of cheaper prices for international travelers to the States due to the depreciated dollar, it would be wrong to safely conclude that U.S. goods are now so cheap at the existing exchange rate that the dollar must appreciate from its current level. Overall the price of American products is still too high to ease the massive trade imbalance between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
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Friday, August 08, 2008
ECB Rate Freeze Boosts US Dollar Long-term Trend Change Probability / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Slumps to Five-Month Low on Reduced Bets for Higher Rates . The euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar as traders pared bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates due to a slowing economy.
The euro also fell to a three-week low versus Japan's currency after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be "particularly weak" through the third quarter. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain against the yen in almost two months as oil dropped 18 percent from a record. The Australian dollar declined for a ninth day, the longest stretch since 1980, as futures show the central bank will cut borrowing costs this year.
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Tuesday, August 05, 2008
US Dollar / Crude Oil Inverse Correlation Returns … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Over the last year or so almost everyone’s been pointing to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and crude oil. In a special issue of Currency Snapshot we included a chart that showed the recent breakdown of this correlation. Here’s an updated chart:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
US Dollar Bullish and Bearish Scenarios / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crook writes: You can never actually know for sure what's going to happen on any given day, in any given market. And it's thinking you do know that can get you into real trouble.
Instead, you should think about the markets in terms of probabilities. I believe that is the real key to successful trading.
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Ben Bernanke has Become the Destroyer of Worlds / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I love readers' comments at the end of online articles and blog entries. I recently came across one at the end of an article regarding general Federal Reserve policy that simply said:
"Ben Bernanke is like the death star. Destroyer of worlds."
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Friday, July 18, 2008
Currency Traders Are Convinced Of.. / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
... the Canadian dollar should be trading at par with the US dollar. We’re not sure exactly how traders became convinced, but this explains why we’ve seen a departure between the Canadian dollar’s correlation with commodities and commodity currencies.
At one point we’d have expected the Loonie to surge to new highs along-side crude oil and the Australian dollar. But we’ve found it just can’t shake the tight link between the US and Canadian economies.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
US Dollar Final Decent - Dangers 2008-2009 Part2 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Part 2 talks about the world post the USD centric world economy. It looks out 1 to 3 years ahead. Part 1 talked about the immediate dangers to the world from a Middle East war, food and energy shortages, and inflation. It looked into late 08 and 09.This part talks about what would happen should the USD begin a final decent to far lower values.
We are now a full year into the credit implosion that started with the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in Summer of 07. So many dimensions of the world economy have changed dramatically for the worse since that pivotal event…
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Don't Buy the US Dollar Head Fake / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
This week, we were treated to strong statements by both Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about the desirability of a “strong dollar”, and the intention of policy makers to pursue strategies that will enhance its value. To the relief of many, the dollar responded to the moral support and managed a mild rally. The move is inconsequential. The harsh realities have not changed in the slightest, and the dollar is set to continue its overall decline.
Although some investors respond to such jawboning, the more sophisticated international players, who in large part determine the foreign exchange market, do not. Why the bearish sentiment despite the bullish talk from Washington?
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