Category: Double Dip Recession
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Weak U.S. Credit Growth Early Sign of a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
In spite of five straight quarters of loosening lending standards and strong U.S. credit growth data, actual loan growth in the U.S. economy is dangerously anemic.
What isn't apparent to investors is that the reason first-quarter gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth fell to 1.8% from the fourth quarter's more robust 3.1% rate is that loans and leases - which accounted for as much as 51.2% of U.S. GDP as recently as 2008 - fell to 45% of GDP in March.
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Saturday, April 16, 2011
U.S. Slip-sliding into Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
In June, the Fed's bond buying binge (QE2) will end and the economy will have to muddle through on its own. And, that's going to be tough-sledding, because QE2 provided a $600 billion drip-feed to ailing markets which helped to lift the S&P 500 12% from the time the program kicked off in November 2010. Absent the additional monetary easing, the big banks and brokerages will have to rely on low interest rates alone while facing a chilly investment climate where belt-tightening and hairshirts are all-the-rage and where consumers are still licking their wounds from the Great Recession. None of this bodes well for the markets or for the millions of jobless workers who continue to fall off the unemployment rolls only to find that the social safety net has been sold to pay off the mushrooming budget deficits.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Recession by End of Year? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
John Taylor, CEO of FX Concepts, a currency trading firm with $8 billion under management says "We'll be in a recession by the end of the year. Three reasons: QE2 will end, Republicans are running the House, and the price of gas is heading up."
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Wednesday, March 30, 2011
There Will be a Double Dip Economic Recession, the Tipping Point / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Richard_Hartley
The first part of this sorry tale was caused by greed and inflated money markets. This gave near full employment and unprecedented growth around the world.
The last two years has been caused by the markets realization that you cannot carry on and keep re-inflating the money markets as really there was no-one else left to lend to. People max'd out on credit cards, took equity withdrawals. A stupid scheme was enacted to allow people with no money to own homes backed by large mortgages giving to anyone that asked and to a lot that didn't but just signed on the dotted line. .
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Sunday, October 31, 2010
U.S. GDP Growth is Softer than it Looks, Republican Majority Could Trigger Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
It's Softer Than It Looks
Not Finer for the "99er"
Be Careful What You Wish For
"People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them." - Jean Monnet, father of the European Union
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Saturday, October 30, 2010
Double Dip Recession Delayed, Not Derailed / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
The BEA Advance GDP for Third Quarter 2010 came in at +2.0%. However, Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product shows that Change in private inventories contributed +1.44 while real final sales contributed a mere .6.
How sustainable is that?
Sunday, October 10, 2010
US Economy Doing a Great Imitation of a Developing Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Jesse
The September Non-Farm Payrolls report was not good news.
This is a remarkably unnatural US economic recovery, with gold, silver, and other key commodities soaring in price, the near end of the Treasury curve hitting record low interest rates, and stocks steadily rallying as employment slumps and the median wage continues to decline.
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010
If the Recession Has Ended, Why Is the Fed So Worried? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. economic history. It sets the officially accepted dates for the beginning and the end of U.S. recessions. And on September 20, its Business Cycle Dating Committee published an important statement …
It finally declared the end of the recession that began in December 2007. Here is an excerpt from what it had to say:
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Slowing U.S. Economic Conditions / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.53 in August from -0.11 in July. The August decline marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline of the CFNAI, after two monthly gains. The 3-month moving average is -0.42 in August vs. -0.27 in July. The cut-off mark for the 3-month moving average of the CFNAI is -0.7. Readings above -0.7 after a period contraction suggest the recession has ended. The July and August readings of the CFNAI point to weakening economic conditions. The CFNAI is made up of 85 economic indicators classified under four categories - production and income, employment, unemployment and hours, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders, and inventories.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
United States Economy Caught in the Jaws of Death, Housing Market Mantra / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Gordon_T_Long
The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.
It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US. This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.
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Saturday, September 18, 2010
The Chances of a Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.
I look forward at the beginning of each month to getting Gary's latest letter. I often print it out and walk away from my desk to spend some quality time reading his thoughts. He is one of my "must-read" analysts. I always learn something quite useful and insightful. I am grateful that he has let me share this with you.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
Don't Doubt the Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
A few weeks ago Nouriel Roubini, widely regarded as one of the more pessimistic figures on Wall Street, made headlines by raising his forecasted likelihood of a "double dip recession" to a terrifying 40%. The vast majority of "mainstream" economists (although I would argue Roubini himself is part of that pack) described these predictions as far too gloomy.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Backward Slide into Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
Ongoing deleveraging has slowed personal consumption and trimmed 2nd quarter GDP to a revised 1.6%. The economy is sliding backwards into recession. As Obama's fiscal stimulus dries up and the private sector slashes spending, demand will continue to collapse pushing more businesses and households into default. The economy is now caught in a reinforcing downward cycle in which dwindling fiscal and monetary support is shrinking the money supply triggering a slowdown in activity in the broader economy.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Spending on durable goods rose slightly in July but only on the back of an unsustainable spike in aircraft orders. The rest of the data ranged from weak to abysmal.
As has been the case recently, economists missed the mark by a mile. Economists expected a 3% rise, what they got was a .3% rise.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Bloggers $300 License Tax, Headlines Sound the Alarm about Deeper Economic Problems / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
The following three headlines are alarming symptoms of the economic insanity unfolding before our eyes:
- "Philly requiring bloggers to pay $300 for a business license"
- "LA unveils $578-Million school, costliest in the nation"
- "Record Number Of Americans Using Retirement Funds As Source Of Immediate Cash"
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Protection From a Double-Dip Economic Recession Going Global / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
The last time the U.S. economy suffered through a double-dip recession, this country was struggling to overcome the fallout from an Arab oil embargo, Vietnam War-era deficits, and an inflationary spiral that just wouldn't let go.
That 1981-82 double-dip downturn - the result of an economic "shock treatment" aimed at curing those ills - consisted of two recessions that were separated by a single quarter of growth.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Double Dip Recession, Keynesianism Is Dying / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Gary_North
Promoting a revamped Keynesian economic theory – one without any guarantee of job growth – is the equivalent of selling a lifetime subscription to a revamped Playboy: one without any photos. It's a tough sell. Yet this is what Keynesians are facing today. This will be fun to watch.
In the last few days, we have begun to see reports from mainstream Keynesian forecasters and economists who are talking about the possibility of a double-dip recession.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Major leading Economic Indicator in Free Fall! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
In my July 14 Money and Markets column, I explained how the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index confirmed my bearish forecast.
Back then, the index’s growth rate was minus 8.3 percent. And as you can see in the chart below, it is continuing to freefall — tumbling to minus 10.3 percent for the week ending July 30 …
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Economic Uncertainties No Longer! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Sy_Harding
Fed Chairman Bernanke can move on from his warning of a couple of months ago that there are “unusual uncertainties” in the economy. There may still be uncertainties in the stock market, but no longer in the economy! It is almost surely headed into a recessionary period again.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 08, 2010
Is the U.S. Economy Toast? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Brian_Bloom
Marc Faber thinks the US economy is toast. Richard Russell’s interpretation of the technical behaviour of the US market is that we might just be entering a new Primary Bull phase. (Although he remains wary because of the generous P/E ratios that still prevail).