Category: Stock Market Sentiment
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Rydex Stock Market Timers Long Term View / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Rarely in this forum have we used the Rydex market timers to guide us in making that intermediate term trading decision. Typically, money flows in and out of their funds relatively easily, and this data set appears better suited for positioning oneself on a daily basis. However, a longer term (i.e., weekly view) has proved fruitful in the past, and this is what is presented in this article.
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Sunday, January 03, 2010
Stock Market Bullish Investor Sentiment At Tipping Point? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
From an investor sentiment perspective there is very little to like about the current US equity market. The "dumb money" continues to be bullish to an extreme. The "smart money" is neutral to bearish. Company insiders continue to be relentless in their selling. The Rydex market timers are their most bullish since mid August. With most investors in the bullish camp, at some point the market will reach its tipping point, and it is my expectation that this will be sooner than later. After all, who is left to buy if everyone is so bullish?
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Are Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Useless? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
As we have chronicled, investor sentiment has not been a very useful tool for timing the market the past 6 months. The "Dumb Money" indicator has been extremely bullish since the end of July, yet the S&P500 has tacked on - albeit begrudgingly - about 14% since that time. Looking at the sentiment picture from the perspective of company insiders, insider selling has exceeded insider buying by historic amounts since May, and company insiders continue to sell significantly despite the strong gains.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Stock Market Dumb Money Indicator Says Investors are Extremely Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
The holidays are approaching, and I am lucky enough to be traveling this year with my family. So there won't be any comments attached to this week's sentiment charts. I don't have the time, and I won't waste your time. That's o.k. because as you know nothing has really changed in this market for the last three months anyway. Prices have been range bound, and investors continue to be overly bullish, insiders continue to sell, and the smart money remains indifferent.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Stock Market Timers, FOMC A One Day Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
For Wednesday's FOMC announcement, the Rydex market timers were betting heavy that Bernanke and company would deliver. The Fed didn't disappoint as they continue to keep their foot on the easy money pedal. Unfortunately, the market did its best to frustrate the most, and the early morning rally fizzled intraday. The Rydex market timers have moved back to the sidelines.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Rydex Stock Market Timers Indicator Signaling Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds versus the amount of assets in the leveraged and bearish funds. This data is hidden, but the ratio of bull to bear, which is depicted by the indicator in the lower panel, is 2 to 1. Since July, 2009, every time this ratio got above 2, it marked a short term top in the S&P500. These are noted by the maroon colored vertical bars.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Stock Market Investors Watching the Snow Fall / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Investors seem to be mailing it in for the last couple of weeks of the year. Some buying interest on decent overall economic numbers, but very low volume indicates that many are sitting on their hands awaiting the flip of the calendar. Retail sales were better than expected, however auto sales and slightly higher gas prices did boost sales. The trade picture improved some, while jobless claim rose a bit – so at worst OK economic data.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Robert Prechter Popular Culture and the Stock Market / InvestorEducation / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
Wall Street legend and best-selling author Robert Prechter says "You can almost hear the Dow going up and down over the airwaves." Watch this 3-minute clip from his documentary History's Hidden Engine to see how social mood governs movements in the stock market and trends in popular culture. Then access his 50-page report "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" FREE.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Robert Prechter, What Really Moves the Stock Market / InvestorEducation / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
The following article is adapted from a special report on "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" published by Robert Prechter, founder and CEO of the technical analysis and research firm Elliott Wave International. Although originally published in 1985, "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" is so timeless and relevant that USA Today covered its insights in a recent Nov. 2009 article. For the rest of this revealing 50-page report, download it for free here.
Sunday, December 06, 2009
Stock Market Cross Currents / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
The trading range that has developed over the past several weeks is emblematic of the cross currents confronting this market. New highs seem to be made daily and then boom, the rug is pulled out from the market, and prices plunge for a couple of hours. Buyers appear and back to the highs we go and selling begins again. If you are looking for some support area where you might think it is "safe" to find a low risk entry, then this isn't the market for you. Sell offs are clearly unpredictable although they are occurring at the upper reaches of the trading zone that I had expected when I stated this over two months ago:
Sunday, December 06, 2009
This Stock Market is on Less Footing than in 2007 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: J_Derek_Blain
It seems that we have returned to the "olden days" of the bubble era. In fact, the words bubble, gold, bull market, and stocks seem to be popping up on finance web sites all over the virtual stratosphere.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Stock Market Smart Money Turning Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
After 15 weeks of being neutral, the "smart money" indicator has turned towards a more bearish reading. The "dumb money" indicator remains in the extreme bullish zone. While not there yet, the indicators are heading in the direction that one would expect to see at a market top.
For now, I will continue to state what I have been stating for 5 weeks as it has served us well in defining the price action seen in the major market indices:
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Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Do NOT go Against This Stock Market Iindicator ... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Marty_Chenard
We think it is important enough to post everyday on our paid website ... what is it?
It is a chart of how much selling Institutional Investors do everyday, and what the short term trend of that selling is.
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Stock Market Investment Sentiment, Changes Within The Indicators / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Every week that I put together these comments, I pay great attention to the words that I write. Last week's key points were: 1) the range continues; 2) seasonal tendencies and being at the bottom of a well defined trend channel argue for a bounce; 3) we need to see the excesses of bullish sentiment unwound before we have meaningfully higher prices; 4) the risk of a market down draft remains great. This week investor sentiment has become very convoluted suggesting even greater care in the words I choose. So let's get to it.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Stock Market Rydex Market Timers No Material Change / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Rydex Stock Market Timers Buying The Dip / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
The Rydex market timer, as a representative sample of investors, was buying yesterday's sell off.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Stock Market Rydex Market Timers: All In (Again!) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
The last time I used those words was on September 25, which marked a short term high in the S&P500. About a week later, a reasonable short term (trading) opportunity developed.
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Saturday, October 24, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Consistency And Credibility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
This week's comments are about why I continue to present the same data on investor sentiment week after week. Some readers have suggested that this data has been of little value during this historic bull run, and so why keep showing it. I believe the data has been relevant, but for those who see otherwise, let's just agree to disagree for now.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Watch What Institutional Stock Market Investors are Doing / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Marty_Chenard
As an analytical firm, we pay for a lot of special data that the public can't get. Sometimes, the data is of major importance relative to what is going on in the stock market.
One such piece of data has to do with what Institutional Investors are doing. We all know that they are responsible for over 50% of any given day's volume ... which is why following this investment group is so important.
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Sunday, October 18, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment, I Am Still Singing That Song / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Last week I was changing my tune. This week's tune is the same old song: "Equities are for renting not owning at this juncture. I am not calling for a market top, but prices should trade more in a range, and if you intend to play on the long side, it will be important to maintain your discipline (for risk reasons) and buy at the lows of that trading range and sell at the highs to extract any profits from this market. The upward bias still remains as long as investor sentiment is still extremely bullish, but there is probably greater risk of a market down draft now than in past weeks."