Category: Commodities Trading
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
WTIC Crude Oil and Silver Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Savage
At 63% below the 200 week moving average the price of oil has gone "parabolic" to the downside. Silver is due for an intermediate degree rally. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 05, 2016
DJ-UBS Forecast: Can it get worse in 2016 for Commodities? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Submissions
Ken Ticehurst writes: The commodities complex ended 2015 with another poor year, the Dow Jones Commodity Index ended down 25%. Unfortunately as far as we are concerned the downtrend is set to continue for the foreseeable future there appears very little evidence of a capitulation or a bottom forming.
We are currently in a small oversold bounce which we do not expect to last too long as the index itself has spent the last few months in a controlled descent. Rather than an uncontrolled crash the index has moved steadily lower which can sometimes indicate a lower for longer pattern is unfolding.
Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Plunging Commodities Interfere With The New World Order / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Anglo American, a British company, and one of the world’s biggest miners, and a ‘producer’ (actually just a miner, how did those two terms ever get mixed up?!) of platinum (world no. 1), diamonds, copper, nickel, iron ore and coal, said today it would scrap dividends AND fire 85,000 of it 135,000 global workforce (that’s 63%!).
Anglo is just the first in a long litany line we’ll see going forward. Commodities ‘producers’ are being completely wiped out, hammered, killed, murdered. They’ve been able to hedge their downside risks so far, but now find they can’t even afford the price of the hedges (insurance) anymore. And then there’s all the banks and funds that financed them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 23, 2015
US Dollar, CRB, Oil, Gas, Copper and Gold - The Chartology of Deflation / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
About a month or so ago I started posting regularly on the possible inflection point I was seeing in regards to the deflationary trend that has been on going since 2011. As you know stocks move from a reversal or consolidation pattern in an impulse move which is much different than a sideways chopping action of a reversal or consolidation pattern. Impulse moves are the stored up energy that is released once a reversal or consolidation pattern is finished doing its job. About four weeks ago it looked like the most recent consolidation phase was coming to an end which would then leave the door opened to an impulse move.
At the first writing of the possible inflection point the US dollar was still trading within the confines of its possible bullish falling wedge which I viewed as a consolidation pattern to the upside. Shortly after that first post on the possible inflection point the US dollar broke out of its bullish falling wedge and is now approaching its previous high just above 100 or so. The US dollar is the key driver for this deflationary spiral that has been in place for over four years now with no light at the end of the tunnel for the commodities complex yet.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 13, 2015
Crude Oil and Gold Daily Cycles / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Savage
Oil has confirmed a failed daily cycle. That's not good news and probably means the 3 year cycle low will now get stretched out to early spring.
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Thursday, October 01, 2015
NIRP, its Likelihood and Effect on Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Alasdair_Macleod
In last week's article I pointed out that negative interest rates should lead to a general shift in consumer preferences from money towards essential goods. Central bankers may wish for this outcome on a controlled basis to allow them to hit their price inflation targets, and this could happen quite quickly. If people face a tax on their cash and bank deposits, which is what a negative interest rate amounts to, they will simply reduce these balances, artificially boosting demand.
Thursday, October 01, 2015
Best Short-Term Commodity Market Opportunities - Video / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
Elliott Wave International's Senior Commodity Analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy, has just recorded a live webinar titled "Today's Top Commodity Opportunities."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 18, 2015
Commodities, CRB,WTIC,Copper - After The Long Dark Night, The Sun Starts to Rise... / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Clive_Maund
Commodities and Emerging Markets have been crushed over the past 15 months by the dollar's strong rally. It therefore follows that if the dollar starts down again, they are going to rally, and this will happen regardless of the state of economies. The dollar should start down again if the Fed fails to raise interest rates tomorrow, and maybe even if they do, as the ensuing chain of interest rate rises cannot extend far because of the magnitude of debt.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Why Commodities And Precious Metals Are True Contrarian Opportunities / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: SecularInvestor
Investors tend to make ‘contrarian’ investing choices too early in the cycle.
Basically, the price of an asset can be trending higher, lower or sideways. When an asset is declining in price, it remains in a downtrend until proven otherwise. The chance of a trend change is much smaller than the trend continuing. In other words, being ‘contrarian’ is difficult, and the pitfall is that an investor may be too early with his contrarian call.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 14, 2015
Commodity Prices Weakness Persists / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, good friend Gary Shilling gives us deeper insight into the global economic trends that have led to China’s headline-making, market-shaking devaluation of the renminbi. He reminds us that today’s currency moves and lagging growth are the (perhaps inevitable) outcome of China massive expansion of output for many products that started more than a decade ago. China was at the epicenter of a commodity bubble that got underway in 2002, soon after China joined the World Trade Organization.
As manufacturing shifted from North America and Europe to China –with China now consuming more than 40% of annual global output of copper, tin, lead, zinc and other nonferrous metal while stockpiling increased quantities of iron ore, petroleum and other commodities – many thought a permanent commodity boom was here.
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Monday, August 03, 2015
The Real Message of Plunging Commodities Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Michael_Pento
The Chinese stock market recently saw its biggest selloff in 8 years as the dramatic 8.5% fall in Shanghai "A" shares also rattled markets around the world.
For the past few weeks China has been balancing its desire to keep the equity market from a complete meltdown, while still courting the international investment community with hopes of being a dominant player in the capital and currency markets.
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Sunday, August 02, 2015
Commodity Prices Slump Signals Slow Economic Growth Outlook / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Dan_Norcini
In my opinion, the surest method for ascertaining what the sentiment is towards overall global economic growth prospects is the commodity sector performance.
When sentiment is upbeat towards global growth, commodities tend to be in a strong uptrend on the charts. The reverse is true when prospects turn sour; commodities have a general tendency to sell off.
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Saturday, August 01, 2015
The Fed Can't Stop the Commodity Bear Market / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Only a shift in investor psychology -- i.e. the Elliott wave pattern -- can
For many commodity investors, the last four years have felt like one long, bad dream. The kind where you're tied to a railroad track as a train heads straight for you -- in slow motion. You can't move, can't scream, can't do anything but lay there and wait for the point of impact. On July 29, that point seemed closer than ever when the S&P GSCI index, a measure of a basket of 24 commodities, plunged to its lowest level in 13 years.
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Thursday, July 23, 2015
Commodity Prices, Gold and Silver Stocks Next Leg Down / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
There is a lot to go over tonight in regards to commodities and the precious metals complex. A while back I wrote a report on the commodities in general getting ready for the next possible leg down which will fuel the deflationary pressures that really took hold last about this time. That's when the US dollar finally broke out of its massive base and charged higher topping out in March of this year and has been consolidating those gains ever since. Lets start by looking at the big base the US dollar broke out of last year at this time and the strong impulse move up as shown by the string of white candlesticks. That's what a strong impulse move looks like when all the pent up energy finally has a change to escape.
Tuesday, June 09, 2015
Have YOU Heard of the 30-Year Commodity Cycle? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Learn about a curious phenomenon in commodity prices
Where are commodity prices headed? Get some answers from Elliott Wave International's Commodity Junctures editor, Jeffrey Kennedy -- and learn about the "30-year cycle."
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Friday, May 15, 2015
Dry Bulk Shipping Index Chart Analysis Update 2015 / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Tony_Caldaro
In 2012 we thought we had identified a 13 year cycle in the shipping industry. Then in mid-2012 we published this report detailing the cycle and anticipating a rally in rates: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/09/27/dry-bulk-shipping-industry/. The rally in rates did occur as the BDI more than tripled by late-2013. As a follow up to that we report we published an update in late-2013, which we got all wrong: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/12/08/dry-bulk-shipping-update/.
Rates peaked a few days after that report and started to decline. The decline retraced much of the 2013 gains, but rates again turned higher in the second half of that year. Right around November 2014, as we were preparing to write an update, rates turned down again. This downturn took the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to its lowest level since the index was created in the 1980’s, exceeding the 554 reading in July, 1986. Clearly the 13 year cycle had been usurped by market forces: diminishing demand and oversupply of worldwide tonnage.
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Thursday, May 14, 2015
Lumber Lambasted / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Austin_Galt
Lumber has been punished lately with around 30% lopped off the price already this year. The bulls have walked the plank and exclaimed “Shivers me timbers!”
Alright, enough hijinx. Let’s analyse the technicals using the weekly, monthly and yearly charts.
Thursday, May 14, 2015
GOLD and Crude OIL Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gregor_Horvat
Gold is going higher following our 4 hour chart count to complete a wave C in ending diagonal pattern larger degree. We would like to see this metal to go through 1.213 price point which will confirm that current path is further up. If we measure A from last lows and project it to measure wave C, target for this move should be between 1.245-1.250 levels.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Did Commodity Prices FINALLY Just Bottom? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Commodity prices are down 60% from their 2008 peak... and they've lost a quarter of their value in the past year alone.
When will the bad times in commodities end?
They could already be over, actually...
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Corn Commodity Buying Opportunity Looms / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Austin_Galt
Corn has just broken support so there looks to be a bit more downside in store before a more solid bear rally takes place.
Firstly, let’s briefly look at the fundamental factors. The main factors causing the price of corn to drop recently appear to be an oversupply of corn combined with the recent outbreak of bird flu or avian influenza.