Category: Agricultural Commodities
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
China and India Demand to Fuel Agri-Foods Bull Market / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
If one listens to the popular business media, commodities are dead. When paper oil was trading at $147, the sky was the limit. Now, all is going down. Perhaps they are little more than trend followers? What we really need to know is if the world is awash in grains. Truth is, that view does not in any way describe the global situation. The world has entered an era, ten years or more remaining, when Agri-Food will be in short supply. Whether China grows at 11+% or 9% does not change the conclusion.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Investing in Booming Chinese Food Stocks / Companies / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: As a teenager, I couldn't wait to get off the family vegetable farm. While the rest of my friends were joyriding around town, swimming, and otherwise having tons of fun, I was always working.
But attitudes sure do change over time. Now I live in Montana to recapture that rural lifestyle that I hated so much as a teenager.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Agri-foods Correction Presents Long-term Investment Opportunity / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With paper oil prices breaking, nonsense spewing forth from business media and strategists has expanded. Commodity prices have broken, many claim. Yes folks, those billion plus consumers in China stopped eating food the day paper oil prices peaked. We would not be surprised if they do keep eating. Slowdown in China? A possibility, and irrelevant for investment decisions. Imagine selling U.S. equities in1901 due to fear U.S. may have an economic slowdown sometime. That is today's equivalent of ignoring long-term impact of China and India. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
Commodities Coup: Moscow Seizes Control of Agricultural Exports / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: Russia has generated considerable political ill will throughout the former Soviet Union and even in Europe by renationalizing its energy sector – ultimately using such state-run ventures as OAO Gazprom and its resource-rich position as weapons of economic diplomacy. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Soft Commodities Price Trends / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With paper oil prices having peaked, we keep hearing a question that demonstrates the uninformed minds of many strategists and talking heads in the business media. That question is, “Have commodity prices peaked?” Again, commodities is not a homogeneous asset class. Comprising it are actually three separate and distinct commodity groups. Energy, minerals, and Agri-Food are the three major genus of the family referred to as commodities. Each is driven by different and unique factors. Each will have a individualistic investment cycle that will drive prices and returns. Falling oil prices may tangentially influence some Agri-Food prices, but do not dominate them. However, the greater impact of lower oil price may be the reduction in costs and improved profitability.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Agri-Food Funds Hit by Credit Crisis Hedge Fund Margin Calls / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Virulent fall of equity markets may have more to do with date of 30 June than temporarily high paper oil prices. Last day of June is associated with end of quarter financial statements. Around the world, financial institutions were preparing for and then creating balance sheets for that important date. Those financial institutions felt compelled by market forces to make their balance sheets look good. That desire translated into a continued reduction in available lending to funds of all kinds. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Soft Commodities Bull Market: Grains / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Zeal_LLC
The great commodities bull of the 21st century has elevated individual commodities and sectors of commodities in various phases over the last eight or so years. Those commodities that are finite (hard commodities) took the lead, with energy and metals breaking out to historic highs.
Growing global demand led by Asia 's industrialization has pinched the supplies of these scarce resources. And this has caused an economic imbalance that has birthed massive secular bull markets across the entire energy and metals complexes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Agricultural Commodity ETF Tests Resistance / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Not much of anything going on in the equity or bond markets since the FOMC announcement, however, in general, the equity market appears bid, while the bond market appears offered for the time being. Perhaps the most important reaction to the FOMC statement has been the climb in euro/$ from 1.5540 to 1.5640, which has popped the grains (wheat, corn, beans)... which in turn has popped the DBA (DB Agricultural Commodity, ETF) to test near term resistance at 41.00. If hurdled, let's expect the DBA to surge to retest the June high at 41.42. See our chart.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Agri-Food Bull Markets Driven by Fundamentals / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
The term “bubble” is thrown around a lot. It is especially used by analysts that do not understand why the price of something is rising. If an analyst failed to forecast the rising price, it must be a bubble. Maybe yes, maybe no. Bubbles have three characteristics. Importantly, bubbles are built on (1)a widely accepted consensus forecast of (2)rising price (3)financed by debt. Such would aptly describe the global housing bubble which has burst. It would also be an apt description of developments in the paper oil market. Only in part does it explain the price developments in Agri-Food. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
World Only One Crop Failure Away From Grain Shortage / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Investors are still adapting to the world of investing in commodities. In the world of paper equities, news is often important. A new phone is indeed actionable information that markets should discount. Investors have become accustomed to trading stocks based on such bits of news. However, they have not yet learned to discern news noise from real news on commodities. Agri-Foods have a seasonality to both availability and prices. That seasonality arises because of the planting and harvesting cycle. In between, comes the weather which often makes difficult the forecasting of supply. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Importance of Covariance between Agri-Food Prices and Gold / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Prices are influenced by two forces. Inflation, caused by monetary expansion, is an increase in the general price level. That influence is felt directly though domestic prices rising and through a depreciating national money forcing imported prices higher. Additionally, prices on a relative basis can change. In the Agri-Food sector both influences have been felt. Prices for Agri-Food commodities have moved higher on a relative basis as a massive global demand shift has occurred.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Agricultural Commodities ETF Sprouts New Upleg / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The DBA (Deutsche Bank Powershares Agricultural Commodity Fund, ETF) is showing some pop today finally, no doubt in reaction to the sharp upmoves in Soybeans and Corn (wheat continues to lag), which indicate the start of new post-correction, recovery uplegs.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Grain Markets Panic Buying, Export Controls, and Food Riots / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Joseph_Dancy
Long term global demand and supply trends in the agricultural sector remain very favorable for investors. New and expanding biofuel facilities, growing global population, and the upgrading of diets in many Asian countries continues to increase demand for grains at a rapid pace.
Supply growth is constrained by export controls recently implemented by many large grain producing countries, drought in several producing regions, and the lack of readily available acreage suitable for expanding farming operations. Western agriculture methods are also incredibly energy intensive, which increases the cost of expanding supplies. The following developments occurred in the sector last month:
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Thursday, May 15, 2008
Playing the Food Boom for Huge Profits / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'm long 5,000 bushels of corn in the futures market. I bought the contract at $6.22 (a bushel), near corn's record high price.
Why? Because I'm expecting the price of corn to more than double in the next 18 months, to well over $12 a bushel. And I'll be adding more corn to my portfolio when I see the next buy point.
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Thursday, May 15, 2008
Grain Exporting Countries of Africa to Mirror Crude Oil OPEC Boom / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: John_Mauldin
What countries are truly the have and have nots of the world? Good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners suggests we look at the old equation in a new way? Food and energy resources may be at least part of the definition in the future. In this week's Outside the Box we continue a them I mentioned a few weeks ago: agricultural needs are going to be a new and important force in the world and when coupled with energy may shift the balance of power in the world in strange a different ways.
When, as Niels points out, Afghanistan poppy farmers are shifting to wheat farming, the world is truly a different place. I think you will find the research he has done to be truly worth a few minutes of your thinking time.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Increase of Chickens Consumption Contributing to Agro-Foods Boom / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Ethanol is beginning of search for alternatives to petroleum based fuels, not the best nor the end of that search. Ethanol is first step in move backwards in biological terms to sun/plant juncture where solar energy is converted to form humans and animals can use. Recently, with exception of corn farmers, ethanol seems to be loosing friends. The “jump to a conclusion without the facts” group is blaming ethanol for high and rising food prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Commodity Market Summary / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Emanuel_Balarie
Grains - Corn fell over 2-percent today, with the July contract settling 14 1/2 cents lower at $6.14 ¾ a bushel. Improving planting conditions in the U.S. Midwest with forecasts for no major storms before May 21st will accelerate plantings that have experienced extended delays due to wet weather.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Agri-Foods Investment Boom Continues / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Hard to miss a news story on global situation in rice. More has been written on rice in past month than probably occurs in a year. At the same time, the price of oil was bid to an all time high. All that action fed the interest in gra ins, especially those t hat might be converted to biofuel. This headline attention on Agri-Food also fed investor interest. As this week's chart shows, Agri-Food stocks have been having a very good time.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Can You Profit From The Rice Shortage? / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: George_Kleinman
How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?--Alan Greenspan, 1996
Rice was in the limelight this past week. Costco and Sam's Club limited the amount of rice customers could buy because of the irrational exuberance of its rice customers. The rice chart below (this is a fairly thin market that's not too actively traded in the futures) looks like an accelerated rocket ride to the moon. Historically, these kinds of moves always seem to end poorly.
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Friday, April 25, 2008
US Hot Dry Summer Forecast Bullish for Energy and Agricultural Investments / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Joseph_Dancy
Several of the sectors we are invested in are extremely weather dependent. The fortunes of the firms in these sectors will hinge to some extent on weather conditions 3-6 months in the future. Firms operating in the agriculture sector are the obvious ones that will be impacted by weather conditions. Less obvious is the impact weather has on the natural gas sector. Read full article... Read full article...