Sunday, December 22, 2024
STOP LOSSES / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A Patron asks -
"Hi Nadeem, How do you plan for the unforeseen? In RUS-UKR context, recent Russian declaration/updating of Nuclear Doctrine. That a Non-Nuclear state can be nuked under this doctrine. This may or may not happen. However that is not the point. I have not put the Stop Orders on any of the shares, may be being a rookie. Should there always be a Stop Order for each share I own to hedge against black swan events? Would negative 20% Stop Orders make sense? I am saying 20% just as a random number. "
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Sunday, December 22, 2024
Fed Tests Gold Price Upleg / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The Federal Reserve somehow surprised traders with a hawkish rate cut this week. While that had been expected, apparently the Fed’s projected rate-cut trajectory slowed even more than feared. So market reactions were violent, including the US dollar blasting higher unleashing heavy gold-futures selling. This is the latest in a long line of Fed-spawned tests of gold’s resilience, challenging its current monster upleg.
From early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold skyrocketed 53.1% higher achieving a rare 40%+ monster-status upleg! Gold powered to 43 new nominal record closes in that remarkable span, despite massive uplegs’ usual driver being missing-in-action. Enamored with the AI stock bubble, American stock investors weren’t chasing gold’s upside momentum at all. That’s evident in the dominant gold ETFs’ holdings.
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Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, that was quite the eventful week. We had a Fed announcement, and all the market geniuses were quick to attribute the cause of the 3% decline to the Fed announcement. However, this is nothing more than a foolish and very superficial perspective, which evidences their lack of true understanding of how our markets work.
As I have said often, while news can act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news is really irrelevant in determining the direction of the move. In fact, we have seen many moves through market history which have not even been supported by the news. In fact, in1988 there was a study conducted by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers entitled “What Moves Stock Prices,” which supports my perspective.
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Sunday, December 22, 2024
Never Buy an IPO / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a reminder of why you should never buy IPO's. not worth the risk. IPO's are accompanied with a huge amount of sales and marketing hype so that the insiders can offload their shares to retail crowd at an inflated valuation where the figures in the financial statements tend to be pure fantasy conjured out of thin air by the merchant banks.
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Friday, December 20, 2024
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 20th Dec 2024
Crypto's are dumping, Bitcoin $94k, Solana $180, Doge $0.28, AVAX $34, COIN $260 can be very enticing to buy the dip for the next FOMO rally but I have always considered crypto's to be fairy dust, easy come easy go, so this is a warning that the TOP for crypto's could be in, so as I've been saying in the comments I would be very wary of buying the dip as the plan since the Trump pump began has been to disinvest from crypto's. Those who have followed should by now should have banked profits, I mean my exit strategy in recent articles could not have made things any clearer of what I am doing.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
MSM Cerebras IPO hype has already started!
HEADLINES -
- Cerebras, an Nvidia Challenger, Files for IPO Confidentially
- Forget Nvidia: Billionaires Are Selling It and Buying This Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Rival Hand Over Fist Instead
- Forget Intel and AMD - Nvidia's next big competitor might be a company you've never heard of
This is how the IPO game is played, pump the media with fake stories of how good Cerebus is and that it could take Nvidia's place to get fools to FOMO into a piece of garbage IPO.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a reminder of why folk should not make the mistake of having little exposure to Nvidia, the more exposure the better - next gen accelerator (Black well) is 5x current gen H100 and depending on application and config delivers upto a 30X boost in performance, the AI bubble is nowhere near it's peak, take current deviation from the high as an opp you will regret missing, reminds me of buying bitcorn during Q4 2023, we all wanted it to dip but I nibbled a bit every other day to build up exposure, that's what folk should be doing with Nvidia.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
LRCX Stock Split / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Investors in Lam Research the 11th stock on my AI list get 10 new crispy shares for every one held, the normal pattern for most stocks is to rise into a split and fall afterwards as a sell the news event. Lam Research did bottom out $720 on 10th September and since rose to a recent high of $860 so a 20% rally, though in reality the stock has not done anything other than follow the script for the correction window that runs from Mid July to at least Mid October following it's FOMO run to $1120.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far we are not getting the dip in the S&P, to the contrary as mentioned earlier the S&P traded to a new all time high which lowers the probability for an October dip getting down to anywhere the target of 5200, instead the S&P correcting down to 5500 looks doable from where we currently stand. Note the operative word "correction". Octobers tend to be one of the most volatile months of the year as does August and we saw what happened during August. a huge spike down that reversed to see the month close up, none of which will be visible in the monthly seasonal data. So whilst it might not seem like it right now with the S&P trading at 5740 as I write, October volatility is likely to see the S&P trade down by about 5% targeting a spike to below 5500 during the next few weeks which given the timing of will likely result in a DOWN OCTOBER, following which we will be set for that rip the face off the bears rally to well over 6000 during January 2025 as per trend forecast.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
Silver is stepping back into the spotlight, glinting with the promise of rising prices, surging demand, and shifting market dynamics. Building on insights from my previous article, “Silver Worth $150-$170? Facts to Make the Case for a Major Price Surge,” it’s clear the metal isn’t just playing second fiddle to gold, it’s tuning up for its own symphony.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
How many hours of work would it take to purchase one ounce of gold? Now you’ll know.
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Monday, December 16, 2024
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 16th Dec 2024
Tesla $460 - I sold a big chunk today now down to 11% invested, 2.7% of portfolio, Fomo mania in msm and twit land, I"ll probably have sold 80% by 500! I remember when I bought huge at $166 those who followed were soon crying because it continued to fall to a low of $139, that's the thing, one does not want to try and buy THE low because you won't! At THE low you'll think THE low is much lower. Now folk wish they could turn back time and buy at $166 just as I said they will wish they could in the not too distant future. How to time travel will be a topic in my next article ��
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Statistically 2025 is expected to be the stronger of 2022,2023 and 2024, which again is supportive of the thesis that 2025 will see a gain of between 20% and 30% and probably nearer to 30%, i.e. a rip the face of the bears rally where those sat on the sidelines throw caution to the wind and FOMO in propelling the S&P well beyond 7000 towards 8000
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Sheffield city clowncil had a whole year to prepare for the big city centre event of 2024, Christmas markets, one would have thought that the clowncil would pull out the stops to deliver as good a market event as they did for 2023, instead when visiting the Sheffield Christmas market we were met with a bloody building site! Fargate is a ruin! What they did to Castle Market they have now done to Fargate! This stupid useless city clowncil!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Copper, silver, and gold quite often move together, especially during the big moves.
Impending Massive Slide
And this is currently very helpful.
Given gold’s recent decline and a much bigger decline in silver and mining stocks, one might wonder whether miners’ and silver’s weakness are telling the truth about the precious metals market’s outlook, or if it’s gold that’s been holding up relatively well.
Friday, December 13, 2024
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market performance based on whether the President is Democrat or Republican.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A strong September during a strong year that has only seen 1 down month (April), so what does this rare pattern suggest could come next?
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Friday, December 13, 2024
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
September is seasonally the weakest month of the year, and has been so for 3 years in a row until September 2024 resulting in the unexpected up closing month, though there are too factors that should be obvious -
1. Three years down in a row increases the probability for an UP September, a little more attention to detail should have flagged this as being probable.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
According to CNBC on November 11, "Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock Market President in History." "The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration," says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here's a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors' willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: "Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors."
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