Monday, April 07, 2025
President Dump Delivers BEAR MARKET - Stock Market Battles Between Order and Chaos / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day you gain access to my latest timely market brief on what to expect next during stock market chaos that was posted early Monday morning to patrons who support my work so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, March 20, 2025
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Thanks to Agent Orange the S&P is down 10% whilst Russian stocks are up 30%, so at least the Russian stocks I bought Feb / March 2022 are soaring! I get asked is the bull market over, it could be but that's not my base case so I did what I've done for the duration of this bull market which is to buy the dip in target stocks as opps materialise. We are getting a bounce off a 10% drop but what the markets are really waiting for the next leg up proper apart from Agent Orange to shut his mouth is for the Fed to indicate that the money printer is about to go brrrr again and for that we have Wednesdays Fed interest rate decision at 6pm GMT followed by Powell's forward guidance speech that will likely be dovish in the wake of the carnage inflicted by Agent Orange. Biden handed President Dump a goldilocks economy that was delivering near S&P 30% per annum, and what does Trump do? he goes and crashes it by pressing the reset button back to 1929! Alls he had to do was nothing and we'd be coasting along with probably a couple more years of easy S&P gains.
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Thursday, March 20, 2025
Gold and System Collapse: Charting the Bank Run of the Mighty US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2025
By: Hubert_Moolman
The US dollar banking system is in the midst of a bank run by the measures that I will illustrate here.
Since the 1879 gold standard was established in America, the US dollar could be directly redeemed for gold within the banking system. This continued even after the Federal Reserve was created and until it was ended for citizens in 1933.
In such a system, the measure of actual gold held by the banking system ( the true monetary base) versus the gold certificates (paper dollars but measured as the monetary base) with which gold could be redeemed is a relevant measure of how well the banking system is capitalised.
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Thursday, March 20, 2025
Tesla's Troubles — Is it Musk or is it More? / Companies / Tesla
By: EWI
Tesla tumbled 15% on March 10, its biggest single day drop in more than five years. Elliott Wave International's March Global Market Perspective provides this insight:
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Sunday, March 09, 2025
The Stock Market Bear / Crash indicator Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day here are my 3 most recent market briefs sent Patrons -
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Stock Market Brief - The CI18 Correction Window
Sunday 9th of March 4pm UK Time
Greetings Patron
Agent Orange continues to wreck havoc with the US economy, financial markets and the US Empire as he fumbles for the light switch in the White house, does he even remember what he signed the day before? Tariffs on, Tariffs off all for being centre stage in Season 2 of the Trump Show that will likely eventually embolden Emperor Xi to make a move on Taiwan given how Agent Orange has been caving in to President Putrid in Ukraine
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Sunday, March 09, 2025
Big US Tech Stocks Fundamentals / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
The big US stocks dominating markets and investors’ portfolios just finished another earnings season. They reported spectacular collective results including record sales, profits, and operating cash flows. Yet their valuations still forged deeper into dangerous bubble territory. That sure increases the chances stock markets’ recent selloff snowballs into a long-overdue reckoning, a major bear market to normalize valuations.
The flagship S&P 500 stock index just enjoyed a massive bull run, blasting 49.2% higher between late October 2023 to mid-February 2025! The SPX achieved a phenomenal 60 record closes during that 15.8-month span. It was remarkably-one-sided as well, suffering no 10%+ correction-grade selloffs. Smaller pullbacks climaxed at -5.5% in mid-April 2024, -8.5% in early August, and -4.2% into early September.
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Sunday, March 09, 2025
No Winners When The Inflation Balloon Pops / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
As the economy slowly grinds to a standstill, the expectations of worsening inflation continue to rise. “Stagflation”, you say? Possibly; but, there is another risk that is greater than stagflation. And, the prospects are much gloomier than those envisioned by a scenario which features an ordinary recession accompanied by marginally higher prices.
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Thursday, February 27, 2025
Stocks, Crypto and Housing Market Waiting for Trump to Shut His Mouth! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trump tariffs chaos and threats trash talk continues to rule supreme, so how can markets pump higher when the one man disinformation machine can't keep his mouth shut for more than 10 seconds without vomiting fear uncertainty and doubt? Even Musk's brat told Trump to "Shut Your Mouth" as Trump submitted to a real multi billionaire at the Oval office press conference that had Trump sat like a puppet waiting for instructions from master Musk, showing you who the boss is! The arrogance of extreme wealth! Every ones dressed for business, Musk dressed for a day out with his kid, the guy is clearly going through a MANIC phase following which will come the DEPRESSION which I am sure seeing TESLA stock nudge below $200 will worsen, and I hear the junkie does Ketamine, Musk is mentally unbalanced which brings into doubt all that folk are betting on Musk delivering in terms of billions of robot slave workers to pump Tesla stock to the Moon instead it looks like it's headed for Uranus.
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Thursday, February 27, 2025
PepeCoin (PEPE): Anticipating Crypto Reversals using Elliott Waves / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: EWI
With just a basic understanding of the Elliott Wave Principle, you have a tool that can help you anticipate trends and trend changes.
The Wave Principle says that markets move in five waves in their primary direction (motive waves) and three waves in the countertrend direction (corrective waves).
Once a 5-wave impulse is complete, you can expect at the very least a 3-wave correction in the opposite direction.
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Thursday, February 27, 2025
Audit the Fed, Audit Fort Knox, Audit Everything / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
Americans have to wonder, based on revelations coming out of Washington DC, whether government waste, fraud, and abuse is happening on an industrial scale.
The need to perform audits and implement controls is obvious, despite wailing from people who somehow aren’t happy with the questions being asked. If we are going to have a republic, taxpayers need some confidence their hard-earned money is well spent.
The word “audit” has some negative connotations – mostly associated with taxes and the Internal Revenue Service.
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Thursday, February 27, 2025
There Are Some Bullish Indicators in the Silver Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2025
By: MoneyMetals
Silver has quietly had a strong start to 2025, with the price up 12.6 percent. However, it remains significantly underpriced compared to gold from a historical perspective with the gold-silver ratio still above 90-1.
The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold given the current spot price of both metals.
While industrial demand has a much bigger impact on the price of silver than gold, silver is still fundamentally a monetary metal and its price tends to track with gold over time. The gold-silver ratio reflects this relationship.
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Thursday, February 27, 2025
These Metrics Identify Only 10 AI Related Stocks That Are Undervalued / Companies / AI
By: Lorimer_Wilson
If you’re looking for AI companies primed for revenue and earnings growth, strong profitability, and upward analyst revisions, consider investing in one or more of the stocks highlighted in this article based on their current stock price relative to their forecast earnings growth over the next 12 months, i.e. their PEG ratio, and also the magnitude of their recent price change to evaluate the extent to which the stock is overbought or oversold; and the degree to which the stock has been shorted by traders.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold and Silver Markets Brief / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day you get access to my latest market brief that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
<<< Market Brief - 17th Feb 2025 - Risk is to the Upside >>>
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Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Harnessing Market Insights to Drive Financial Success / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Understanding market dynamics is essential for businesses and investors aiming to thrive in a competitive and ever-changing economic landscape. While many struggle to interpret and utilise the vast data available, effectively harnessing market insights can help identify trends, adapt strategies, and anticipate risks. This approach not only promotes growth but also ensures long-term sustainability amidst economic uncertainties.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Bubble 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So that there is no confusion stocks are very over valued right now with the S&P trading on a PE of 22,7, even the Fed gets this as indicated in the November Financial Stability Report.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The market is in a constant state of flux flipping between a rate cut coin toss to currently sit at 70% chance of a rate cut some 12 days out.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China set the ball rolling with their $140 billion of stimulus with much more to come during 2025, then we had the first of a series of Fed rate cuts adding fuel to the fire and next is the Incoming Trump money printing binge that is going act to fire booster rockets under all asset markets. Remember we live within the US Empires global financial system where all roads lead back to the US Dollar.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: A Long-Term Bear Market Is Simply Impossible Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Avi_Gilburt
In a number of past articles, I have tried to prepare those reading my analysis for the strong probability that we can see a long-term bear market. I have outlined the many reasons supporting my perspective, and have provided a few supporting charts in various prior public articles.
But, I will tell you that the pushback I have seen that this is even “possible” is much greater than I had expected. Many commenters have provided one reason after another as to not only why it is not likely, but, in their minds, it is simply not even possible. While I have addressed all their reasons in various prior articles, I doubt they really care. Too many investors are seemingly going through their investing careers while donning blinders.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
A Stock Market Chart That’s Out of This World / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: EWI
Valuations Are at the Furthest Edge of the Financial Solar System
By Robert Prechter, excerpted from the January 2025 Elliott Wave Theorist.
Figure 1 updates our history of year-end valuations for stocks of S&P companies on two bases: price to book value (Y axis) and dividend yield (X axis). I thought the year-end 2021 overvaluation would never be surpassed. But as you can see, the year-end 2024 reading is both higher and further to the right. It is the highest multiple ever recorded for S&P Industrials’ price to book value and the fifth-lowest level for the S&P Composite’s dividend yield, the four lower readings all occurring in 1998-2001.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
These Are The Banks The Fed Believes Will Fail / Companies / Financial Crisis 2025
By: Avi_Gilburt
The NY Fed has recently published a study on bank failures in the U.S., examining the reasons why banks fail. For this study, the regulator constructed a large database with balance sheet information for most U.S. banks dating back to the Civil War. This dataset is truly unique, as other studies on bank failures have focused only on the period since 1976. As a result, the longer time horizon of this study allows it to include data on over 5,000 bank failures.
The study draws the following conclusions about the causes of bank failures.
First, failing banks typically experience rising losses and deteriorating solvency before failure. Non-performing loans increase, leading to higher loan loss provisions, which ultimately result in lower profitability and reduced equity-to-assets ratios.
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