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Stocks Bear Market Preparing for Upside Breakout

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Feb 23, 2009 - 03:13 AM GMT

By: David_Petch

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index swooped below 805 like a hot knife through butter, but a lack of follow through yesterday suggests the alternate count for the S&P 500 Index is now the preferred count. Also in today's article is an update of the US Dollar Index, along with various currencies.


S&P 500 Index

The CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index is shown below, with the S&P 500 Index in the background and accompanying stochastics shown below. For this chart, the %K above the %D is an indication of general market weakness, while beneath the %D is an indication of general market strength. The %K appears to have hooked up after Tuesday's sharp decline, suggestive that a crossover for more than 3 days could lead to a change in sentiment.

Figure 1

The short-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, suggestive that wave (c).[b] of a flat pattern is completing, with wave [c] to follow. Based upon time relationships, wave (c).[b] should not complete until February 23 rd -24 th . Wave [c] should last 3-4 weeks at a minimum before heading higher. There is a way to count the pattern after wave [x].XX as a contracting triangle with reverse alternation, but I will stick with the labeling scheme I have been using. If the scenario I have labeled is correct, then expect a narrow trading range over the course of the next 3-5 trading days before breaking out to the upside.

Figure 2

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

I generally try to write at least one editorial per week, although typically not as long as this one. At www.treasurechests.info , once per week (with updates if required), I track the Amex Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index and the S&P 500 Index using various forms of technical analysis, including Elliott Wave. Captain Hook the site proprietor writes 2-3 articles per week on the “big picture” by tying in recent market action with numerous index ratios, money supply, COT positions etc. We also cover some 60 plus stocks in the precious metals, energy and base metals categories (with a focus on stocks around our provinces).

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future.

And of course if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line . We very much enjoy hearing from you on these items.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

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