Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19
The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? - 2nd Dec 19
A Complete Guide To Finding The Best CFD Broker - 2nd Dec 19
See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - 2nd Dec 19
Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Where Are We?  - 1st Dec 19
Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? - 1st Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election - 30th Nov 19
Growing Inequality Unrest Threatens Mining Industry - 30th Nov 19
Conspiracy Theories Are Killing This Nation - 30th Nov 19
How to Clip a Budgies / Parakeets Wings, Cut / Trim Bird's Flight Feathers - 30th Nov 19
Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks - 29th Nov 19
Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs - 29th Nov 19
Tax-Loss Selling Drives Down Gold and Silver Junior Stock Prices - 29th Nov 19
We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression - 29th Nov 19
How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday Bargains and Avoid FAKE Sales - 29th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

Dow Jones Industrial Averages Index Price Anomaly

Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation Jan 27, 2009 - 03:50 AM GMT

By: David_Urban

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the last week, a number of articles were written about the distortions in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Because of the collapse of the financial sector the DJIA, a price-weighted index, has become distorted. In a price-weighted index, each stock price is divided by a divisor to determine its price makeup within the index. Normally this is not a major problem but as of the closing bell on Monday, January 26th, four stocks trade below $10 per share and nine stocks trade below $20 per share. This interesting anomaly deserves a closer look.


If all four stocks below $10 opened on Tuesday at 0, the DJIA would only see a loss of approximately 167.74 points or 2.08%. In fact, if all nine stocks trading under $20 were to open at 0, the DJIA would only see a loss of approximately 759.36 points or 9.4%. The price weighting of 30% of the DJIA stocks are make up less than 10% of the Indexes value.

As a point of comparison, the largest five stocks account for slightly more than 35% of the Index value.

After going over the data, it appears as though we may be at a bottom for the market barring a total collapse of an Index name. Given the fact that most of the economic and earnings bad news has been written into the stock market a significant bottom may be at hand barring any unforeseen events.

While there is still approximately 7-10% downside risk to retest the November lows it is worth considering a long investment at this time. In order for us to break below the November lows, we would have to see a serious collapse by one of the larger weighted names, in this case, Exxon, IBM, Chevron, McDonalds, or Johnson and Johnson.

However, this is not to say that we are at the beginning of another bull market cycle. That is a number of years away for the major indices as the charts of financial companies are similar to those found when asset bubbles pop throughout history. When bubbles do pop, it takes decades for prices to recover to previous levels, if they do at all. This is not an index market for investors and will not be an index market for investors for some time into the future. This is a sideways market and will remain that way for years.

The argument has been made that there is no need in changing the makeup of the index because of the current conditions, but there are high quality companies that would not cause the DJIA to lose its luster. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, US Bancorp, and Goldman Sachs come to mind as financial sector candidates to replace Citigroup and Bank of America. Toyota could replace General Motors as they recently surpassed General Motors as the world's number one automaker by sales. Alcoa could be replaced with Freeport-McMoran and provide a greater diversification in the Basic Materials sector. In each case, a comparable company can be found to replace a languishing stock in the DJIA.

Toyota would be especially controversial, but with Ford trading under $2 and GM the recipient of a government bailout Toyota would be the logical choice. Not only are they the largest automotive company by sales, but they also have a significant amount of production located in the United States.

It was not long ago that Intel and Microsoft were added to the DJIA. This marks the addition of NASDAQ and technology stocks into the DJIA. Toyota would be an extension into foreign firms with ADR's but have significant manufacturing operations located within the United States .

A rotation of stocks may not be the best move for public relations purposes but it is never good for a stock to be dropped from the DJIA. A rotation of stocks would correct the price anomaly in the Index at the present time and provide for a more price-balanced index for investors.

By David Urban

http://blog.myspace.com/global112

Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author.  We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided "AS IS" without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER. 

Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile.  This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here.  I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

David Urban Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules