Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 3rd Apr 21
Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout - 3rd Apr 21
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields - 3rd Apr 21
What can you buy with cryptocurrencies?- 3rd Apr 21
What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Mining Stocks - 2nd Apr 21
WD My Book DUO 28tb Unboxing - What Drives Inside the Enclosure, Reds or Blues Review - 2nd Apr 21
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves - 2nd Apr 21
Gold And US Dollar Hegemony - 2nd Apr 21
What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price - 2nd Apr 21
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue - 2nd Apr 21
Crypto Mine Bitcoin With Your Gaming PC - How Much Profit after 3 Weeks with NiceHash, RTX 3080 GPU - 2nd Apr 21
UK Lockdowns Ending As Europe Continues to Die, Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope - 2nd Apr 21
A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care - 1st Apr 21
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles - 1st Apr 21
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls - 1st Apr 21
Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation - 1st Apr 21
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” - 1st Apr 21
Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash - 31st Mar 21
INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners - 31st Mar 21
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold - 31st Mar 21
How To Be Eligible For An E-Transfer Payday Loan? - 31st Mar 21
eXcentral Review – Trade CFDs with a Customer-Centric Broker - 31st Mar 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Markets Find Some Reasons To Be Cheerful

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Jan 07, 2009 - 11:36 AM GMT

By: PaddyPowerTrader

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleU.S. equities managed to keep their head above water yesterday despite a profit warning from Bank of America (recall they now own Merrill Lynch and Countrywide) and very soft home sales and factory orders . So why the new found tentative optimism? The bull's case is that stocks are clearly benefiting from:


  • asset reallocation from over valued government bonds into equities, i.e. a return of risk appetite,
  • mortgage rates have slipped below the key 5% level encouraging a pick up in refinancing,
  • lower volatility is encouraging investors to dip their toe back into the market,
  • a shift to cyclical economically sensitive stocks which may make hay from the Obama stimulus package (e.g. the government doesn't own bulldozers),
  • market strategists talking up a good couple of months ahead for stocks (before they talk it back down a few months later it must be added).

The Euro Stoxx 600 is up 17% since the November 21st low, which has gone almost unnoticed. Goldman Sach's are predicting corporate earnings for this group to decline by 20% on average this year so all may not be so hunky dory. For a great overview of the caveat emptor case look no further than this earnings estimates piece.

Today's Market Moving Stories

  • The FoMC minutes released last night were a tad frustrating. While they were dovish on inflation and bearish on what they see as an increasingly grim economic outlook they were very sketchy on details of the next step that the markets expect them to embark upon i.e. quantitative easing .
  • Will the Obama effect wear off? In the first dose of realism he warns of the dangers of a $1 trillion deficit and says that there will be some tough choices ahead.
  • UK Chancellor Darling is quoted in the FT as saying that the economy is far from through the recession and concludes that even the bright eyed government has abandoned the idea of a recovery in the 2nd half of 2009.
  • The ever cheery UK press are suggesting a 45% drop in earnings for companies this year with 10% of all shops predicted to be vacant by end 2009.
  • The latest employment surveys in the UK confirms the anecdotal evidence job shedding and downward wage pressures. KPMG's employment survey revealed the sharpest decline in demand for permanent and part-time staff for at least 11 years. Its index of staff placement dropped to 28.6 from 28.9 in November, which is consistent with the jobless total rising above two million (for first time since mid-1997). They will be re-running “Boys from the Blackstuff” on the BBC soon at this rate.
  • The German FT reports that even the hands off German government is planning a €100bn bailout fund for corporates and that the EU Commission are becoming increasingly perturbed by divergences between countries in the Eurozone. These strains are illustrated by Ireland. They are being held over a barrel by investors and being forced to pay outrageous spreads over where the German government can borrow despite having the same top triple A (AAA) credit rating.
  • A really scary chart that shows the true extent of the U.S. housing bubble in historical terms . It extrapolates (always a dangerous business mind) where we may be heading.

Marks And Spencer's Trading Update Disappoints
Marks and Spencer confirms wide press reports that its Q3 numbers were poor. Like-for-like sales were down 7.1%, with an 8.9% drop in general merchandise and a 5.2% drop in food sales. It noted that its post Christmas sale started with 15% less stock than last year (remember, the likes of M&S and BHS were warning about what was coming up as long ago as April, so the stock overhang suffered last year should have been anticipated to a certain extent this time round).

The press had been reporting M&S would unveil 1,000 job losses, but in fact the plan is for 1200, with 450 to go in head office, and then an additional plan to close 27 stores with the loss of 780 jobs. Big store closures by a stalwart like M&S is big news.

Equities

  • Fyffes' results came in ahead of the markets forecast.
  • Grafton's trading update revealed little news bar that earnings are likely to be at the lower end of expectations.
  • ICON reported a 30% fall in U.S. biotech funding.
  • DCC is benefiting from the coldest winter in 12 years via DCC Energy.
  • UK discount airline easyJet reported surprising strong December numbers.

Data Today
After a methodology change last month, the US ADP employment data, due at 13.15, is expected to show another huge job loss count, approaching 1/2 million. Remember that this is an indicator of the biggie, the official Non Farm payroll number, out on Friday at 13.30. Economists are forecasting cuts of between 400k and 800k, so someone is going to be very wrong.

And Finally… Another Of This Years Buzzwords Explained: Quantitative Easing

Disclosures = None

By The Mole
PaddyPowerTrader.com

The Mole is a man in the know. I don’t trade for a living, but instead work for a well-known Irish institution, heading a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day. I aim to provide top quality, up-to-date and relevant market news and data, so that traders can make more informed decisions”.

© 2008 Copyright PaddyPowerTrader - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

PaddyPowerTrader Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules