Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 10-14)

Economics / US Economy Nov 09, 2008 - 07:49 AM GMT

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week ahead in financial markets will see a modest quantity of data that will hit the tapes largely on Thursday and Friday. The major market moving events will be the Friday release of the October advance retail sales data and the Thursday release of the US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims and the US Budget Statement. On Friday in Frankfurt Germany, Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet will lead a cast of global central banking all-stars that will address monetary policy within the current global financial crisis.


Fed Talk

The week in Fed talk will see Ben Bernanke and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speak as part of a panel discussion on monetary policy at a conference hosted by the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany. Bank of Israel Gov. Fisher, People's Bank of China Deputy Gov. Su Ning and Banco de Mexico Gov. Ortiz will also participate on the panel on Friday November 14. The week will kickoff with Treasury's interim assistant secretary for financial stability Neel Kashkari addressing the troubled asset relief program on Monday. Minneapolis FRB President Stern will speak on both Wednesday and Thursday, topics TBA. Thursday will see Philadelphia Fed FRB President Plosser speak on the economic outlook.

US Trade Balance (September) Thursday 08:30 AM

The trade balance for September should see one final month of solid gains on the back what was still decent demand from the external sector for US goods and services. Our forecast implies a decline in the deficit to $57.4bln for the final month of the third quarter. Across purchasing managers surveys, demand from the external sector held up rather well all things considered, and even the disappointing factory orders for the month, saw a pick up in orders for farm machinery that almost surely was a function of demand from abroad. On a real basis, the fall in the cost of imported oil will drive the real goods balance and the ex-petroleum component towards lows not seen in recent years.

Jobless Claims (Week Ending November 8) Thursday 08:30 AM

The week ending November 8 should see another increase in continuing claims that should push the tally towards 3.90mln and the headline should increase to 485K. With the impact of the Gulf Coast hurricanes moving out of the series, the underlying trend should continue its slow march towards 500k. The primary focus of our analysis continues to be the fact that unemployed workers are facing a deteriorating labor market which is necessitating a much longer stay on the benefits rolls for a much longer period of time.

US Budget Statement (October) Thursday 10:00 AM

Given the extraordinary response of the federal government outlays to address the financial crisis and the sharp deceleration in overall economic activity have created the conditions whereby the market should ready itself for a fiscal year of unusually sharp increases in the operating deficit. Of particular importance will be the pace of decline in the total receipts, which were down -1.7% year over year through the end of the fiscal year 2008. We anticipate a swing from the $45.72bln surplus in September to a -$125bln deficit in October.

Import Price Index (October) Thursday 08:30 AM

The decline in commodity prices during the month of October was the worst single monthly performance in nearly 52 years. This development should underlie a third straight month of declines in inflation via the import channel. Our forecast implies a decline of -4.2% on a monthly. On an annual basis, we expect to observe an increase of 12.62%, down from the 14.5% posted in September.

Advance Retail Sales (October) Friday 08:30 AM

The 3.1% contraction in real personal consumption in the third quarter of 2008 provides a vivid illustration of the consumer led recession that still has some miles to go before it reaches its completion. Consumers are in the process of building up cash reserves for the trouble ahead and the near death spiral in auto sales provides a fair amount of insight into what we expect to see in the rate of personal consumption in the near term. We anticipate that the nadir for the current contraction in overall economic output will be the final quarter of 2008 and we expect to see that demonstrated in the advance retail sales data. Our forecast implies that retail sales will see a -2.2% decline month over month and the core ex auto, will fall -1.4% over that same interval.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (November) Friday 10:00 AM

Given the recent turbulence in financial markets, the acceleration of job cuts and the ongoing tightening of credit should combine to send the preliminary estimate of consume sentiment to recent lows in the survey. We think that the real problems in the economy and the concern over the trajectory of unemployment will outweigh the election of a new US President and the fall in gasoline prices and consumer sentiment should fall to 54.

Business Inventories (September) Friday 10:00 AM

One of the troubling developments that have accompanied the decline in real personal consumption has been the in increase in inventory to sales ratios in the macro data of late. The inventory ratio inside the August business inventories report stands at 1.27 months, which is exactly where it stood one year ago, before the market observed a inventory inspired contraction in overall output. The context of the current ratio of inventory to sales, is that of a contraction in real personal consumption and is one of the factors behind our very bearish estimate of a decline in overall growth in the fourth quarter of -4.1%. We expect to see business inventories increase 0.2% in September, followed by a significant period of constrained growth in inventories.

By Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist, VP Global Strategy of the Merk Hard Currency Fund

Bridging academic rigor and communications, Joe Brusuelas provides the Merk team with significant experience in advanced research and analysis of macro-economic factors, as well as in identifying how economic trends impact investors.  As Chief Economist and Global Strategist, he is responsible for heading Merk research and analysis and communicating the Merk Perspective to the markets.

Mr. Brusuelas holds an M.A and a B.A. in Political Science from San Diego State and is a PhD candidate at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

Before joining Merk, Mr. Brusuelas was the chief US Economist at IDEAglobal in New York.  Before that he spent 8 years in academia as a researcher and lecturer covering themes spanning macro- and microeconomics, money, banking and financial markets.  In addition, he has worked at Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney, First Fidelity Bank and Great Western Investment Management.

© 2008 Merk Investments® LLC
The Merk Hard Currency Fund is managed by Merk Investments, an investment advisory firm that invests with discipline and long-term focus while adapting to changing environments.
Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments, makes all investment decisions for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Mr. Merk founded Merk Investments AG in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to the US where all investment advisory activities are conducted by Merk Investments LLC, a SEC-registered investment adviser.

Merk Investments has since pursued a macro-economic approach to investing, with substantial gold and hard currency exposure.

Merk Investments is making the Merk Hard Currency Fund available to retail investors to allow them to diversify their portfolios and, through the fund, invest in a basket of har

Joseph Brusuelas Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules