Bitcoin S&P Pattern

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a log chart of the Bitcoin price and S&P where I broken the bitcoin trend down into main bull and bear markets, which so far have been followed by minor bull and bear markets.

Firstly the chart clearly suggests we are in the early stages of a Major Bitcoin bull market, i.e. following a minor bull and bear follows a Major Bull and then Bear.
The last two Major bull markets were 21 and 18 months in length, thus taking the minor bear bottom as of Mid Sept 2023, then the Bitcoin bull market targets a run to between March and May 2025, as a rough guide of what to expect. So this price pattern is contrary to the ones the crypto maniacs expect which is centered around the halving event in April 2024, i.e. they expect Bitcoin to follow the pattern as in previous cycles which is for a significant drop in price around the halving event, in fact many of the bitcoin models put forward point to the bitcoin bull market proper only beginning 6 months AFTER the halving event i.e. October 2024. Whereas given that the Bitcoin price has breached the minor high of 32k now implies that we are in THE Major bull market and not in a years time. Though it is possible to have significant corrections within a Major bull market as 2021 illustrates that put in a second higher top that confused most at the time.

So my view is that the crypto bull market is going to be compressed in terms of time, I suspect this bull market will fall well short of the 2 preceding bull markets i.e. top out before March to May 2025, where my best guess is to look for a top between September and October 2024, i.e. an INVERSION of the pattern expected by most, where instead of the beginning of the bull market we actually see it top out, a lot of people are going to get caught out once more, just as they were during that second top during 2021, when many had convinced themselves that Bitcoin was heading for $100k and were in denial for the next 6 months, failing to sell, and buying the early stages of the bear market on expectations that the bull would soon resume, which it obviously did not!

The bottom line there is no deviation against my original trend forecast. So as far as I can tell most crypto analysts will remain in denial due to halving event tunnel vision, the bull market they expect to begin in a years time started in September 2023, which thus implies to expect a year long MAJOR BULL MARKET which means most will be waiting for that magic correction to BUY, down to say $30k? $25k? even $20k! All whilst the bitcoin price marches higher, YES it's going to be volatile, after all this is BITCOIN! And so if we do get BIG DIPS I will probably add some more, especially within tax free wrappers i.e. buy some more MSTR.

This article is an excerpt from my in-depth analysis and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 has first been made available to patrons who support my So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Analysis that seeks to replicate the accuracy of 2023:

S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024

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By Nadeem Walayat

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Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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