Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024
Currencies / Bitcoin Mar 11, 2024 - 11:24 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Bitcoin $70k, Bitcoin proxy MSTR $1400, here's my Bitcoin trend forecast for 2024 which includes how you could have bought BTC for $27k and MSTR for under $500 all for the price of a Martini, just $5 bucks! Being tight fisted has cost you the Bitcoin gift! Still it's not over! The crypto bull market is only getting started! Nevertheless my Bitcoin gift that was first made available to Patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. I mean what you getting access for just $5 bucks is literally insane as you will soon find out....
In fact the focus of my latest analysis is Bitcoin Mania! Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024!
Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
Bitcoin BREAKS above $32k resistance courtesy of the dark pools of capital such as Black Rock that are on a mission to seed their imminent Bitcoin ETF's with millions of bitcoins as are all of the other 8 or so Bitcoin ETF issuers that could be announced within weeks. Spot ETF's require BITCOINS! Note they do not care what price they pay for the bitcoins because the name of their game is to CHARGE management fees hence the breakout in the bitcoin price and why I am releasing my Bitcoin chapter ahead of the full HGR2 as requested by Patrons.
Excerpt from HGR2:
My Bitcoin Gift to Get You Started Towards Getting RICH!
If you have been following my analysis over the past year since my article of November 2022 ( https://www.patreon.com/posts/stocks-analysis-75218863) then you would already know that my crypto objective was to accumulate crypto's to a limited extent during the bear market in advance of the next Bitcoin halving event bull market of around March 2024 when the number of block rewards is halved as my earlier analysis as of April 2021 (https://www.patreon.com/posts/bitcoin-bear-and-52534125) illustrated the time-line to capitalise upon that is now just 6 months away!
So we have already had nearly a year to accumulate into the crypto verse that with great irony that my article of November 2022 was posted at the Bitcoin BOTTOM thus allowed one ample scope to pick up at least some exposure to Bitcoin at just $16k per coin!
That was getting lucky on the back of the FTX collapse triggering my buy the panic radar because whenever there is PANIC I tend to BUY the PANIC as I did to limited extent at the time, Some bitcoin, and a few other alt-coins such as Solana which had collapsed due to FTX dumping their holdings though which was at serious risk of going to zero, nevertheless catching falling knives is what I am well used to as a month earlier I and many patrons were busy getting slashed during the Tech Stocks blood bath that saw Meta trade to $90, at the time the likes of Clown Cramer were stating that the FAANG's were dead and Meta was finished!
So here's my Bitcoin gift (trend forecast) that on the current price of $27k, Bitcoin will at least near X4 to $98k and likely a lot more than that, given that there will soon be a flood of Bitcoin ETF's hovering up limited supply of the NSA's, I mean Satoshi Nakamoto's crypto baby. Come on guys do the math, this smells like the NSA else a journo would have tracked down old Satoshi by now given the sums involved. Remember if you work for an intelligence agencies then you are sworn to secrecy for LIFE! We will only know who Satoshi really is AFTER his has died (and not that Japanese dude) when a video surfaces of either an NSA or GCHQ code breaker, just do the math, Bitcoin is built upon the impossible to break encryption SHA-256 algorithm as invented by the NSA!
The great irony is that the flag carrier for personal freedom could be the child of an intelligence agency!
Large Image - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2023/Oct/Bitcoiin-Trend-Forecast-June-2025-Nadeem-Walayat.jpg
How High Could Bitcoin Go?
Well my view has remained consistent for over a year that the next bull market will target a range of $98k to $130k that would be a X6 to X8 from the then price of $16k as I wrote at the time, and given where we now near a year down the road I would now widen my target to $98k to $138k, why $98k? Because sitting here 6 months ahead of the halving event there is a chance that Bitcoin tops out just before reaching $100k as most will be pinning their hopes on 100k being a done deal, thus to pull the proverbial rug under ones feet.
Though that is not my base case as I do expect Bitcoin to break above $100k that will result in RAMPANT FOMO mania fever gripping the world that will take Bitcoin to over $125k, so why $138k? Well just as was the case with $100k many at $138k will take BTC $150k as being a done deal, as by then the MANIA will expect BTC to FOMO to over $200k+, as many will have started to pile in on the break above $100k eyeing a doubling to $200k along which there will be much fantasy numbers of Bitcoin $500k+ Thus I see it is highly probable that Bitcoin will top out BEFORE it gets to anywhere near $150k, likely before $140k. At the time it is going to be VERY hard to resist the FOMO as everyone will be convinced that $200k is just around the corner! Personally I will begin scaling out of bitcoin from around $98k all the way to $136k for most of that which I hold, leaving maybe say 25% of my holding to ride out whatever follows, given that my average price paid to date is under $25k. Many including I are going to try and ride the volatile price swings, i.e. try and sell at say $50k to buy back at $38k, when in reality all we need to do is accumulate and HOLD for $100k+ which is easier said then done, it's going to be a wild roller coaster ride, we could easily see Bitcoin draw downs of as much as 50%! That is the nature of the crypto beast! So where crypto's are concerned it's a case of accumulating for the FOMO spikes and not get side tracked by volatility.
The easiest way to gain exposure is to to dollar cost average, buy a bit every other day as I do, and you never know another big exchange blowing up may deliver another golden buying opportunity as it did last November when FTX EXPLODED in spectacular style crashing the crypto markets which saw the likes of Solana fall to a low of about $8, where I did buy some at $9 for no other reason than it had collapsed from $40 to $9 in just a few days.
You have to learn to take risks, lots of small risks, because you don't know which will pay off i.e. I can fantasise about Solana X10ing but I am aware it could go to zero, so my exposure is limited to what I am prepared to lose for the potential of x10, against which I have my far safer BTC position that should at least X3, which will more than cover all of the alt-coin risks even if NONE of them pay off.
So as is the case with every investment, every business activity, there is always THE RISK FACTOR because one does not get a potential X return without the associated risk of loss, just that the risk rewards for BTC at $26k looks pretty good, i.e. what's the worst that can happen from here? a 50% loss? Vs reward of X5. And know this I put my money where my mouth is so if things don't turn out the way I expect them to then I will LOSE some money, if I sell at a loss, collectively about 1.5% of my stocks portfolio is actual cash invested in crypto as of writing, that I aim to increase to about 2.5% over the coming weeks and months, largely through accumulating Bitcoin via both dollar cost averaging and via limit orders to capitalise on any potential drop to $20k, though given how many are taking that as granted it is looking increasingly unlikely to materialise. Either way I am gradually increasing my exposure to Bitcoin as well as a number of alt coins such as Chainlink and Solana, where the risk is far higher for greater potential return. Patrons can see the current state of my crypto holdings at the bottom of the AI stocks portfolio spreadsheet.
Crypto's also illustrate that one needs to understand what one is investing in else one will either not invest or is a weak hand ready to sell for a pittance, once one understands what one is investing in then whatever the market does will be like water off a ducks back, There is Bitcoin, the crypto OG, and then there is the rest. It's safe to say no matter what happens to Bitcoin i.e. even a 90% CRASH (not a forecast), it's tokenomics are such that it WILL RISE AGAIN to a NEW ALL TIME HIGH! That is the nature of the beast, the same cannot be said for other crypto's, they can and do go BUST! PERMANENTLY! So understand the difference between Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto currencies, Bitcoin draw downs are TEMPORARY, the risk with the rest is that the draw down could be PERMANENT! This is a lesson I have had to learn the hard \way, I can imagine when the FOMO is strong a flood of Nadeem look at this alt-coin or look at that alt-coin requests, NO, been there done that, they are ALL turd coins! Yeah they get a pump and then they get the dump and then they are probably DEAD! So everyone should understand the difference between Bitcoin and the Rest, Bitcoin is a relatively low risk X3 to x4 over next couple of years, whilst the alt-coins could X10 or X20 or X100,but the risk is they DON't, Instead they go to and stay at ZERO!
Bitcoin could even save what's left of mankind from extinction when the AI takes over as the whole of the world's energy output is consumed by competing machine intelligence in an ever higher hash rate war resulting in the mother of all power outages and thus humanity gets a second chance, though by then our modern world will be long gone. failing that there is always the risk of a Carrington Event X10 that fries the chips, unless AI by then has made the leap into becoming a biological artificial intelligence or spread it's spores across the solar system.
And no I am not going to recommend any crypto platform to use given that they do tend to go bust taking depositor assets with them, it's a risk we all take. so you are going to have to choose your own. Also a final word of caution to spread your crypto assets because approx 20% of Bitcoins have already been lost forever, so I can imagine waking up one day to find that one of these soon to be announced Bitcoin ETF's will have lost some or even most of their Bitcoins forever! There is no financial compensation scheme for crypto's!
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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