Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks
Companies / Investing 2024 Jan 21, 2024 - 10:04 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
My focus for much of 2023 was to what degree one would get lucky in ones target stocks during the year, as it can be a case of playing with fire to heavily trim ones holdings, especially the primary and secondary AI tech stocks, all because one thinks one can then rebuy on the next dip. In which respect 2023 proved to be a great year because we got lucky TWICE during the year! Firstly March's correction to S&P 3800, can you imagine that the S&P traded down to 3800 in March! And then again following the July high of 4600 all the way down to 4100! Which even I had started to give up on happening given support at 4200.
Furthermore these corrections resulted in huge draw downs in target stocks i.e. we had Google in March that prompted many to ask if they should sell their Google to buy something else because all of the news was bad, to which my response was I AM BUYING MORE GOOGLE! This is another problem with most investors, for some reason they imagine that stock prices fall on good news, if so then buying the dips would be EASY! Instead stock prices tend to plunge on BAD NEWS! YOU DO NOT GET GOOGLE TRADING DOWN TO $86 ON GOOD NEWS! And this is why most investors fail to buy when stocks are cheap!
Every time a stock plunges on bad news I get asked about the drop, where if I am not already fully loaded my response tends to be I am buying more, THE NEWS THAT MOST FOCUS ON IS A LOAD OF RUBBISH! Good luck with trying to buy stocks when cheap on GOOD NEWS! Because when the news is good the stocks have already soared to new highs and which point Investors want to know when will the stock price next drop so they can buy!
Instead it should be to TRIM on good news and to BUY on bad news! And that is the only real advantage I have over most investors as I have conditioned myself to do the exact opposite of what most do, yes there is my analysis and decades of experience, but also having been conditioned to SEE BAD NEWS DROPS as buying opps whilst GOOD NEWS RALLIES to trim into.
Look at what the stock market did following EVERY Market TOP.
So even if you were totally clueless at investing and bought at the very top of every bull market then all you had to do was to hold onto what you bought and let INFLATION do it's magic. This is why the likes of Dollar Cost Averaging works, it's not magic, it's INFLATION! DO YOU NOW UNDERSTAND HOW THE GAME IS PLAYED?
So the starting point for successful investing is to understand that draw downs are discounting events, where the greater the deviation from the high the greater the buying opportunity, then after having bought at -x%. and if we gets really lucky at -20% (double for individual target stocks) then all one needs to do to become investing Geniuses is to HOLD ONTO ONES INVESTMENTS! And NOT SELL for peanuts as I see many investors do after having gained say 20% they get fearful that they are going to give up all of their gains and so SELL for PEANUTS! When all they needed to do is to HOLD for 5years, 10 years to see the truly epic gains of X5 and more on individual stocks.
So make the conscious effort to condition one selves to invest in this manner, else you will be FOMOING into market tops and panic selling out at market bottoms as the likes of Clown Cramer was doing at META $100, that he repeatedly proclaimed as being finished!
If you only take one thing on board, then let it be this - Keep calm and carry on buying Quantum AI Tech stocks as they deviate from their highs, as the greater the drop in good stocks then the greater the buying opportunity being presented.
And this has been my mantra since at least 2009! Where I try and remind folks forget about trying to buy THE bottoms as you will only find that you missed the bottoms and be sat watching and waiting from the sidelines hoping in hindsight for another chance to buy the likes of META at $200 let alone at $100! When all you had to do was to buy the deviations from the high. Your best buys will always be your most painful buys, buying META at $100 was PAINFUL! Buying TESLA at $110 was PAINFUL, Buying AMD at $60 was PAINFUL, Buying Nvidia at $120 was PAINFUL! Where the only mechanism that enabled one to do so was to BUY the DEVIATION FROM THE HIGHS! Nothing else would have got one invested at such PAINFUL times to buy stocks when one is already sat on large draw downs, buying whilst the likes of Clown Cramer encouraged panic selling at what would turn out to be their bear market bottoms. And then after having bought to hold onto and not sell for peanuts.
As for the S&P, I consider it to be a nothing burger. Why because my portfolio is already 25% above it's 2021 high, whilst the S&P is only on the cusps of a new high. I am not trying to blow my own trumpet,. I am just trying to ram home the message that investing in index trackers such as the S&P is a red herring! At the end of the day what one makes investing is function of how much work one puts into it. You cannot expect to be up 25% in the previous bull market high if all you did was invest in an index tracker! Those who study hard pass their exams with flying colours, whilst those who don't get crappy results, why do you think investing is any different?
This article is an excerpt from my in-depth analysis and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 has first been made available to patrons who support my So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it rises to $7 this month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Analysis that seeks to replicate the accuracy of 2023:
S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
CONTENTS
Investing in the Stock Market is Like Boxing With Mike Tyson
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks
Synthetic Intelligence
The Roaring AI 2020's
Stock Market 2023 Trend Forecast Review
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE
Major Market lows by Calendar Month
US Exponential Budget Deficit
QE4EVER
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic
S&P Real Earnings Yield
S&P EGF EPS Growth
When WIll the Fed Pivot
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates
US Dollar Trend 2024
US Recession Already Happened in 2022!
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions
Margin Debt
Stock Market Breadth
Stock Market Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin S&P Pattern
SP Long-term Trend Analysis
Dow Annual Percent Change
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal
Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Primary AI Stocks
AI - Secondary Stocks
TESLA
Lastest analysis - Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's
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By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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