The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.

As we have a bear market thus it is a case of SWINGS rather than TREND i.e. we had a down swing into early March, rally into Mid April, a down swing into Mid June and then a strong rally into Mid August, i.e. July was strongly higher, and then down hard into the September low. So seasonal analysis in hindsight looks remarkably accurate for 2022! Hindsight! Going forward (without hindsight) October and November should see the stock market go UP, December is still up but weaker, so suggest a peak into Christmas and down into the end of the year. So Seasonal analysis suggests that despite a volatile October after all the S&P just closed at 3585! Putting my neck on the chopping block to say Friday is the bottom! Nevertheless, October strongly higher, November strongly higher, December weakly higher.

As for 2023, a December peak sets the scene for a correction into February, rally into late April / Early May. Summer is going to be volatile with a downwards bias, probably all the way into early October, so maybe a mini bear market from Early May to early October, weak not on the scale of 2022., and then a powerful bull run into the end of the year for a strong up year.

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By Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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