Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends Dec 16, 2022 - 06:50 PM GMT

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.

As we have a bear market thus it is a case of SWINGS rather than TREND i.e. we had a down swing into early March, rally into Mid April, a down swing into Mid June and then a strong rally into Mid August, i.e. July was strongly higher, and then down hard into the September low. So seasonal analysis in hindsight looks remarkably accurate for 2022! Hindsight! Going forward (without hindsight) October and November should see the stock market go UP, December is still up but weaker, so suggest a peak into Christmas and down into the end of the year. So Seasonal analysis suggests that despite a volatile October after all the S&P just closed at 3585! Putting my neck on the chopping block to say Friday is the bottom! Nevertheless, October strongly higher, November strongly higher, December weakly higher.

As for 2023, a December peak sets the scene for a correction into February, rally into late April / Early May. Summer is going to be volatile with a downwards bias, probably all the way into early October, so maybe a mini bear market from Early May to early October, weak not on the scale of 2022., and then a powerful bull run into the end of the year for a strong up year.

This article is an excerpt from my extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023 was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most recent analysis includes -

So for immediate first access to to all of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule:

UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 - Complete
US House Prices Trend Forecast - 80%
Global Housing / Investing Markets - 50%
US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
State of the Crypto Markets
Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
How to Get Rich - 85%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock in now as this increases to $5 per month in the new year.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your mega-trend investing analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.