Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio

Stock-Markets / Investing 2022 Oct 21, 2022 - 07:49 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Which brings us to this BEAR market where my strategy has been NOT to seek to buy the bottom because we will only ever see the bottom in hindsight, instead my strategy has been to buy deep discounts in target stocks which has transformed my portfolio from this in January 2022 -


To this today.

 

Feeding the Beast by Buying the panic! My exposure now stands at 85.5% invested, 14.5% cash (3rd Oct 2022), where 100% equals total invested in AI tech stocks plus high risk stocks plus ALL cash on my investing accounts such as IKBR, AJ Bell, II, Free trade, Etorro. Furthermore since the start of the year I have added FRESH cash to accounts equivalent to 23% of the total value of my portfolio (including cash) that I will likely add more cash to during October. So if I had added no fresh cash I would now be 108.5% invested, vs approx 40% invested at the start of the year. Therefore during this bear market I have increased my exposure to the stock market by 170% compared to where I stood at the start of the year, baring in mind that I sold heavily going into the end of 2021..

Table Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Sep/AI-tech-stocks-3rd-Oct-2022-big.jpg

Scouring my portfolio for what's left to buy that's worth buying in terms of the AI mega-trend then the stock that stands out is TESLA and thus I took today's (3rd Oct) sell off as an opportunity to buy a small opening stake (5.7%) in this target stock though it is still so darn expensive, trading on an PE of 77, What if the stock fell to $215 ? That would still put the stock on a PE of 65. I want to buy Tesla but I don't want to pay a ridiculously high valuation for it, ideally I am seeking about $120 for significant exposure. Instead if I am going to over pay for a stock then I should probably go for the likes of Microsoft on X25 earnings than Tesla on X77.

Understand this the smart money was distributing during the 2nd half of 2021 as they cashed in their chips and then sold / shorted during the first half of 2022, buying the dips whilst selling the bounces, the exact opposite of the retail crowd as they sought answers from media whores on the likes of CNBC who tend to pivot in their views depending on whether stocks are trading higher or lower on that day with the name of the game being to grab as many eyeballs as possible so the more dramatic the headlines the better.

The smart money needs a weak stock market and that is what we have got! A weak stock market that has most investors too scared to invest with the likes of S&P 3000, 2500, 2000 being bandied about as if these price levels are a done deal! All whilst the smart money quietly accumulates near the lows!

The smart money do not want the stock market to rocket higher until they have finished accumulating, hence stocks trading near their bear market lows.

Anyway, I have put my money where my mouth is, and should the stock market continue falling I will continue to increase my exposure in target stocks, Note I am not buying Cathy Wood Turd stocks, I am buying Quantum AI tech stocks, virtually all of which will trade to NEW al time years a lot sooner than most can imagine today, so what do I care about the noise that is draw down as I have no intention of selling especially when this is what sterling has done to the so called bear market

So folks keep things in perspective, the bottom is a red herring, at the end of the day the only thing that will count is if one is invested or not because one thing is for sure is that when this bear market ends i.e. stocks such as AMD stop falling to fresh dollar lows then as soon as you blink it will have rocketed higher by 20%, 30% even more leaving all those waiting on the sidelines for another dip to buy that won't materialise. And even worse for investors outside of the US who will be looking at US stocks trading at NEW ALL TIME HIGHS! I mean IBM was literally there a few weeks ago!

US investors should count themselves lucky for they actually are getting the deepest of discounts on target stocks in their domestic currency unlike folks outside of the US who rely on tax free wrappers that don't allow one to hold dollars on account.

I keep getting asked that x,y,z companies stock price has fallen by 80% or even 90% is it now a buy? The big secret to successful stock market investing is to buy companies that are growing and try to avoid companies that are stagnating or worse dying. This is the problem with blanket buy the crash dippers, you don't buy stocks just because their stock prices have collapsed, they need to be GROWING else that 90% drop could turn into a 99% drop!

This article is an excerpt form my extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023 that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Recent analysis includes -

So for immediate first access to to all of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule:

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 - Complete
  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 80%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 50%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
  • State of the Crypto Markets
  • Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
  • How to Get Rich - 85%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your watching the British pound burn at the official rate of 10.1% per annum analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in