Feeding the Stocks Bear Market Beast
Stock-Markets / Investing 2022 Oct 15, 2022 - 04:02 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!
STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR INDICATOR TRIGGERED - 103.4% vs 100% = Switched ON!
However given that the crash / bear failed to materialise instantly i.e. the next few days, I then had to contend with messages such as this -
8th Dec 2021
Mr Nadeem
You have sent me yesterday, notice that the market would collapse – so I sold everything. Now you don’t even mention this. Surely you need to follow up on perhaps the most dramatic call in your career. Even if just to say sorry – I was wrong. I don’t know if to re buy now
R...
Humans are creatures of habit, they do not like change. They do not like it when a bull market changes into a bear market or when a bear market changes into a bull market since they failed to capitalise on the price drops. Hence continue to FOMO into the early stages of a bear market convinced that a final blow off top is just around the corner that they will then sell into just as many highly popular youtubers were posting at the time because no one wants the party to actually end, so it never does as off they go on a tangent looking for patterns to confirm their bias - .
As is usually the case in the earlier stages of the bear market most were in denial as they clutched at straws waiting for their final blow off top to sell into!
Youtube is good in a way that one gets to see just what was going on in the minds of many 'analysts' who talked themselves into the exact opposite view of where the market was actually headed. https://youtu.be/qM1BKHKYsYU
However, there are some clowns who never throw into the towel and have remained bullish throughout this bear market, the flip side of the perma bears, but still the likes of CNBC continues to give these blind fools air-time.
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Which brings us to this BEAR market where my strategy has been NOT to seek to buy the bottom because we will only ever see the bottom in hindsight, instead my strategy has been to buy deep discounts in target stocks which has transformed my portfolio from this in January 2022 -
To this today.
Feeding the Beast by Buying the panic! My exposure now stands at 85.5% invested, 14.5% cash (3rd Oct 2022), where 100% equals total invested in AI tech stocks plus high risk stocks plus ALL cash on my investing accounts such as IKBR, AJ Bell, II, Free trade, Etorro. Furthermore since the start of the year I have added FRESH cash to accounts equivalent to 23% of the total value of my portfolio (including cash) that I will likely add more cash to during October. So if I had added no fresh cash I would now be 108.5% invested, vs approx 40% invested at the start of the year. Therefore during this bear market I have increased my exposure to the stock market by 170% compared to where I stood at the start of the year, baring in mind that I sold heavily going into the end of 2021..
Table Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Sep/AI-tech-stocks-3rd-Oct-2022-big.jpg
Scouring my portfolio for what's left to buy that's worth buying in terms of the AI mega-trend then the stock that stands out is TESLA and thus I took today's (3rd Oct) sell off as an opportunity to buy a small opening stake (5.7%) in this target stock though it is still so darn expensive, trading on an PE of 77, What if the stock fell to $215 ? That would still put the stock on a PE of 65. I want to buy Tesla but I don't want to pay a ridiculously high valuation for it, ideally I am seeking about $120 for significant exposure. Instead if I am going to over pay for a stock then I should probably go for the likes of Microsoft on X25 earnings than Tesla on X77.
Understand this the smart money was distributing during the 2nd half of 2021 as they cashed in their chips and then sold / shorted during the first half of 2022, buying the dips whilst selling the bounces, the exact opposite of the retail crowd as they sought answers from media whores on the likes of CNBC who tend to pivot in their views depending on whether stocks are trading higher or lower on that day with the name of the game being to grab as many eyeballs as possible so the more dramatic the headlines the better.
The smart money needs a weak stock market and that is what we have got! A weak stock market that has most investors too scared to invest with the likes of S&P 3000, 2500, 2000 being bandied about as if these price levels are a done deal! All whilst the smart money quietly accumulates near the lows!
The smart money do not want the stock market to rocket higher until they have finished accumulating, hence stocks trading near their bear market lows.
Anyway, I have put my money where my mouth is, and should the stock market continue falling I will continue to increase my exposure in target stocks, Note I am not buying Cathy Wood Turd stocks, I am buying Quantum AI tech stocks, virtually all of which will trade to NEW al time years a lot sooner than most can imagine today, so what do I care about the noise that is draw down as I have no intention of selling especially when this is what sterling has done to the so called bear market
So folks keep things in perspective, the bottom is a red herring, at the end of the day the only thing that will count is if one is invested or not because one thing is for sure is that when this bear market ends i.e. stocks such as AMD stop falling to fresh dollar lows then as soon as you blink it will have rocketed higher by 20%, 30% even more leaving all those waiting on the sidelines for another dip to buy that won't materialise. And even worse for investors outside of the US who will be looking at US stocks trading at NEW ALL TIME HIGHS! I mean IBM was literally there a few weeks ago!
US investors should count themselves lucky for they actually are getting the deepest of discounts on target stocks in their domestic currency unlike folks outside of the US who rely on tax free wrappers that don't allow one to hold dollars on account.
I keep getting asked that x,y,z companies stock price has fallen by 80% or even 90% is it now a buy? The big secret to successful stock market investing is to buy companies that are growing and try to avoid companies that are stagnating or worse dying. This is the problem with blanket buy the crash dippers, you don't buy stocks just because their stock prices have collapsed, they need to be GROWING else that 90% drop could turn into a 99% drop!
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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