Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jul 10, 2022 - 07:17 PM GMT

House prices will be higher a year from now, 2 years from now and definitely 3 years from now, the question mark is how high?

Momentum suggests a flat lining market from late 2022 with very light upwards price pressure during early 2023 that could see house price inflation briefly fall towards zero accompanied by maybe a couple of down months before the bull market resumes going into 2024 and 2025.

Net immigration of 300k and an expected Ukrainian influx of at least 200k is going to put the UK housing market under extra strain and upwards price pressure.

Britain continues to hit new over crowding extremes as house building continues to fail to keep pace with population growth - so any house price falls due to a weakening economy will be muted and temporary, thus those waiting for much cheaper properties are going to be badly disappointed.

Inflation suggests we have yet to see a mania when house prices inflation exceeds 20% per annum, until that happens the bull market will continue.

House prices are likely to closely track the RPI inflation rate, so move between a range of about +5% to +10% ! Which is still pretty strong ! NO declines. Say RPI hits 10% then drifts lower to 6% per annum for a couple of years before moving higher again implies strong house price inflation.

Rampant money printing (Deficit spending) continues without abandon, $1 trillion in the US, £100 billion in the UK, I don't buy their snake oil that the central banks will reduce their balance sheets, UK debt is only going to increase and the Bank of England will keep monetizing it so QE is for EVER!

The bottom line is that UK house prices ARE expensive - BUT there is nothing to suggest that they will NOT continue to get more expensive over the coming years all the way to the next MANIA.

This article is part of a series based on my extensive analysis of that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for UK house prices -

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

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UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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