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UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jul 09, 2022 - 11:22 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

The Bank of England just like it's US counterpart recognises the significance of the yield curve inversions not because it has magical powers but that it tends to act as a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough people act on such as trigger as they tend to do then YES it will negatively impact on economic activity as market participants respond accordingly.

However in this respect the Bank of England has done a good smoke and mirrors job of masking the importance of yield curve inversions in the UK, which just don't carry as much weight as they do in the US. The UK yield curve has already temporarily inverted in December, but as has been the case for some time it tends to be of a con flip significance. At best UK yield curve inversions signal economic stress that we are already well aware of.


Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?

The Fed has penciled in 7 rate hikes that target 2.5% this year! Though I think 2% is more probable and thus will be nothing to cry about, so maybe 5 or 6 rate hikes in total.

What about 2023? 2.5% seems probable again that would be nothing to cry about. I would surprised if interest rates end 2023 below than 2.5% i.e. the interest rate risks are to the upside so 3% is possible if not probable at this time. Nevertheless 2% 2022, 3% 2023 will still be LOWER than CPLIE! Again Interest rates should be HIGHER than inflation! i.e. about 10% NOW! Of course that is not going to happen! But that is what normal interest rates look like!

This article is part of a series based on my extensive analysis of that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for UK house prices -

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast 
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Whilst my recent analysis include -

My Main Analysis Schedule

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 75%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
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Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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