UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jun 22, 2022 - 10:16 PM GMT

UK house prices have soared into the stratosphere! Or have they? Not really, not in real terms anyway (RPI). However they are approaching the resistance of 2000's bull market high which could result in a consolidation of sorts. After all if I can see house prices in real terms hitting the buffers then so will be the expedience of most market participants where they are unable to finance property purchases at such extremes.

However, before you all start hoping for a TOP note what happened the last time UK house prices crossed the previous real terms high, Yep they just kept rising. If this bull market followed the script of the last bull market then we have yet to reach the half way mark! We have yet to have the bull market mania. So real terms house prices implies that this bull market is probably only at the half way mark in terns of price and at about the 2/3rds nark in terms of time i.e. the bull market may run for ANOTHER 5 YEARS before we see something akin to a bear market. Now don't take this as a forecast rather an observation as a 5 year forward forecast would be pushing the envelope too far into the mists of time. But those waiting for lower prices to buy should heed the direction of travel of the sum of this analysis which is failing to resolve in anything that suggests lower prices of any significance, If you think UK house prices are expensive today then you are likely going to be pulling your hair out and be found screaming into the mirror during the probable coming mania phase.

Therefore stubbornly high real inflation will continue to put upwards pressure on nominal house prices in line with RPLIE and CPILIE i.e. if CPILIE hits 10% then that is the degree of upwards pressure on house prices. Of course there are also negative drivers such as if unemployment started to rise or the economy started to contract still there is a huge difference between a 10% inflation rate than say a 2% inflation in terms of impact on nominal house prices.

This article in an excerpt from my most recent extensive analysis focused on UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away multiple layers of the UK housing market of to arrive at a high probability trend forecast.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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US House Prices Trend Forecast - 70%
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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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