UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jun 17, 2022 - 03:50 PM GMT

Continuing with the affordability theme the real terms sustainable house prices trend metric uses a souped up version of the oft mentioned average earnings X 3.5 ratio, where the X3.5 ratio has been defective since the 1980's instead the relentless trend puts the ratio currently at about 4.5X average earnings which resolves in the following trend graph.

UK house prices are now just as over extended as they were at the peak of the 2007 housing mania bull market, though this run has been achieved without a mania. The graph also shows why 2012 and 2013 were the best times to buy properties in the UK for decades and hence why during that period I went from zero exposure to about 70% by the end of 2013. The graph also shows the mother of all buying opportunities that persisted for many years during most of the 1990's which WAS THE TIME TO ACCUMULATE PROPERTIES! Where one could literally have picked up a mansion for 1/10th that which they sell for today!

As for today, well the trend on this graph will eventually exceed that of the 2007 high when I presume we will be entering the next mania. So whilst house prices are expensive, however as the 2000's bull run shows, when manias take hold they tend to soar beyond that which anyone can imagine and we have yet to reach that phase of the current housing bull market. For now UK house prices will continue to trundle higher in advance of the next mania.

This article in an excerpt from my most recent extensive analysis focused on UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away multiple layers of the UK housing market of to arrive at a high probability trend forecast.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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My Main Analysis Schedule

UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
US House Prices Trend Forecast - 70%
Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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