Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

SPX Short-term Top Imminent

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Jan 12, 2021 - 11:56 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  May continue until SPX recaches 4150 in February.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net

SPX Short-term Top Imminent 

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022

7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023

Short-term low:  1/18-1/20

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts

SPX-IWM weekly charts

Last week, IWM accurately warned of a correction in SPX, but it was short-lived and not of intermediate nature.  The next significant warning from IWM whereby it exhibits relative weakness to SPX may now not come until we approach 4150. 

Ppl,p   *

SPX daily chart

What a stock market!  A pandemic out of control: New all-time highs!  A mob attack on Washington:  New all-time highs!  A negative jobs report! New all-time highs! Go figure!!!  But the market behavior is not out of context with technical analysis and Point & Figure targets.

My projection for a top when SPX reached 3777 was spot-on, but ephemeral!  After touching 3776.99, the index back-tracked over a hundred points in the space of three hours and that was it; going on to make new highs two days later.  I estimate that the next top is going to come at ~3850, possibly by Monday.  This should be followed by a retracement into 1/18-20 due to the bottoming of a 20-day cycle which has had a very good record of consistancy.  There could be some additional consolidation into the end of the month before the market marches on to the more important top of  4150! 

And as long as we are making projections, we probably should not expect the bull market to end at least until April, with the SPX going to about 4450 and perhaps to as high as 4810. 

Expecting a more important top in this time frame was due, in part, to negative divergence showing at the weekly, daily, and hourly time frames -- an unusual occurrence.  However, this past week the daily CCI surged to its highest level since August, wiping out any expectation of important weakness directly ahead. 

SPX hourly chart

Since mid-November, SPX has been traveling in a narrow, shallow channel which was breached on the downside on two separate occasions, with prices finding support on the 200-hr MA and immediately bouncing back inside the channel.  The index is preparing to do the same thing on the upside, punching through the top of the channel to reach its ~3850 short-term target before perhaps retracing down to the bottom of the channel once again, and at least into the low of the 20-td cycle due on 1/18-20.

After this, it should continue its path higher toward the next price target of ~4150 which, upon completion, should bring the most important correction since early November.  Even this would not be expected to mark the top of the 2009 bull market which could come at a higher level in April, just ahead of a substantial decline resulting from the bottoming of the 7-year cycle (2002-2009-2016-2023). 

  •  
  • UUP (dollar ETF) WKLY ($USD chart not available from this data provider)
  •  
  • UUP is doing what the oscillator pattern anticipated, namely finding support in the vicinity of its long-term channel trend line.  This could bring a rally extending into the blue 50-wk MA over the next few weeks, and perhaps to the top of the corrective channel trend line just beyond. 
  •  
  •  
  • GLD (gold)-WKLY
  •  
  • GLD found support on its weekly 50-MA and retraced .618 of its correction before finding resistance at a former short-term high and pulling back.  More corrective action is likely needed for the next couple of weeks.  So long as it remains above the blue 60-wk MA where it found support on the last pull-back, GLD should continue to consolidate in preparation for its next advance. 
  •  
  • GDX (gold miners)-DLY
  •  
  • GDX also rallied and pulled back, similarly to GLD.  It has found support on the lower channel trend line and could bounce before retesting its low and engaging in additional consolidation. 
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • SIL (silver)-WKLY
  •  
  • The silver weekly chart is also similar to GLD’s, and the same near-term action is expected of it.  With large bases capable of bringing about much higher prices, neither should show much weakness over the short-term -- only what is required to get the indexes ready for a continued move to the upside.
  •  
  •  
  • PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp-DLY)
  •  
  • As anticipated, although they have about the same chart patterns, PAAS is outperforming GDX with stronger rallies and weaker retracements.  Like GDX, it needs to consolidate the recent move which took it outside of its corrective channel and, when ready to resume its intermediate and long-term uptrend.  A projection will be given when it is closer to ending its consolidation.
  •  
  • BNO (U.S. Brent Oil fund)

BNO has come within a penny of its stated projection of 14.00.  After touching it, it will probably need to consolidate before going for the next target of about 16. 

  •  
  • SUMMARY
  •  
  • After meeting its 3770 projection, SPX was expected to have a good correction which did occur pricewise, but a reversal came right away sending the index to a new all-time high.  The next projection of ~3850 should be met next week followed by a pull-back into 1/18-1/20 and perhaps beyond.

Andre

NOTE: You may now view our new website at https://marketurningpoints.com

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in