Coronavirus Targeting 1.14 million Infections, 24,000 Deaths by End February - Global Pandemic Day 57
Politics / Pandemic Feb 04, 2020 - 01:13 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
As of today the World, mostly China has 20,450 confirmed cases of Coronavirus infections. Where the UK's tally currently stands at 3 as Friday's number of 2 was increased by 1 following the UK flying in infected persons from Wuhan. Though likely there are more than a dozen unreported infections in the UK courtesy of 120,000 Chinese students. Whilst those that say that the Coronavirus is over hyped and not that worst than the usual winter flu do not understand that the Coronavirus death rate of 2.1% is about 200 TIMES more deadly than the usual winter flu! That and 200 times as many people falling seriously ill and thus overwhelming healthcare systems!
Meanwhile back in Wuhan the two 'hospitals' built at record speed are virtually complete as per CCP propaganda to treat those infected with the Coronavirus.
However, if one actually looks at what is being built, what we see resembles a quarantine prison camp with self contained cells that include iron bars on windows to prevent escape, for it looks like the infected are to be locked in at 2 patients per cell, and likely the only care they will receive is food, water and anti fever med's via hatches so it will be left largely be up to the patients own immune systems to fight the virus rather than healthcare.
Of course this makes sense as the primary objective of the Chinese government is to bring the pandemic to a halt by all means which can only be done if those who are infected are entirely isolated from the rest of the population hence the Quarantine Camp comprising 1000 cells, that could isolate at least 2000 patients.
Thus the purpose of this facility is to concentrate those ill with the virus from the general population. However the consequences will be that those who end up in such facilities are likely to have a less than 50% chance of surviving the virus. Given that they are likely already gravely ill, and in need of dedicated healthcare that they will not receive due to the number of patients and the risk of infecting medical staff.
Whilst sitting here several thousands of miles away from the epicentre of the outbreak we may criticise China for such Draconian measures but China is literally fighting for its survival in attempts to prevent the outbreak from running into the tens millions so prepared to sacrifice the ill that they don't have the capacity to treat so as to prevent a far larger number of deaths if they succeed in bringing the pandemic to a halt.
Coronavirus Pandemic Trend Forecast
My analysis of 28th Jan concluded forecast expectations for the virus to spread exponentially first across China and then across the world to target 1 million infections by the end of February resulting in 35,000 deaths.
Forecast youtube Video : https://youtu.be/c1rXvXMD3jc
Latest youtube video update as of Pandemic Day 55.
The above graph illustrates the trend trajectory forecast infections to only really start taking off globally mid February when the number of officially declared infections are expected to exceed 100,000 and deaths 2,500. So we are still some 10days away from when the Coronavirus pandemic really starts to take off globally and starts to overwhelm healthcare systems that is the real reason why the number of deaths will greatly start to expand.
Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 57 - 3rd Feb 2020 Update
The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 3rd of Feb 2020 vs actual:
Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 57 - 3rd Feb 2020 Update
The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 3rd of Feb 2020 vs actual:
| Infections | Deaths | |
| Forecast for 1st Feb | 17868 | 553 |
| Actual - 1st Feb | 20650 | 427 |
| % Diff | 115% | 77% |
Were this trend to continue into the end of February 2020 then the number of infected would increase to 1.15 million, whilst the number of deaths would fall to 23,896. So the latest data implies a wider spread but a lower mortality rate.
However, these are still the very early days of the spread of the Coronavirus, especially given that there are large susceptible populations groups with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India that announced it's first infection Friday where outbreaks could soon overwhelm heathcare systems. Also that a vaccine is still a good 4 months away so far too late to have any impact on this pandemic.
Meanwhile this is what China and Asia's infections map currently looks like, which in my opinion grossly under estimates the number of infected, hence why the numbers are increasing exponentially. If I had to guess a number, I would say that MORE than 200,000 are infected as of today.
Meanwhile this is what China and Asia's infections map currently looks like, which in my opinion grossly under estimates the number of infected, hence why the numbers are increasing exponentially. If I had to guess a number, I would say that MORE than 200,000 are infected as of today.
Given the continuing spread of the virus in China and the forecast trend trajectories then the rest of the world is currently still in the calm before the storm stage with likely several outbreaks that risk over whelming healthcare systems as has happened in China.
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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