Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019

ElectionOracle / UK Economy Dec 04, 2019 - 10:54 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

It's the economy stupid! coined by Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992. The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.


Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017

UK General Election Forecast Analysis

The aim of this series of analysis is to further fine tune my core election forecast based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections, house prices momentum that concluded in a forecast of xxx seats first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019.

  1. UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast
  2. Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast
  3. What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019
  4. Marginal Seats, Social Mood and Momentum Election Impact
  5. Opinion Polls and Betting Markets, UK General Election Forecast Conclusion

My last analysis on the Manifestos pushed the seats forecast in favour of the Labour party, putting the Tory seats tally stands at xxx ahead of my final forecast that I aim to complete several days before polling day (12th December).

What the economy Predicts for the UK General Election 1 of 5

  • UK Economy - GDP Growth
  • UK INFLATION - CPI / RPI / REAL
  • UK Unemployment Fake Statistics
  • REAL TERMS AVERAGE EARNINGS
  • UK General Election Tory Seats Projections

UK Economy - GDP Growth

At the top of prospective voters wish lists is a government that can competently manage the UK economy. In which respect the last Labour government failed in spectacular style by delivering the worst recession since WW2! Which Jeremy Corbyn hopes that 10 years on most voters will have forgotten just how catastrophically the last Labour Government ended.

The electorate clearly favour the party of Government to be typically delivering GDP growth of at least 2% per annum if they want to be rewarded with a significant re-election majority.

2015

That was the case in 2015 with the last GDP statistics before voting day coming in at a +2.4% which was sustained during the period of Vote which resulted in the Tories being rewarded with a 'surprise' majority government.

2017

Saw 2% GDP going into the election which implied a smaller majority total than the 330 of 2015.

2019

What about 2019? We'll Poor old Boris Johnson is lumbered with a GDP growth rate of just 1% to Q3 (Sept 2019) AND FALLING! Which implies that the Tories could do WORSE than in 2017!

The rest of this analysis in my Forecasting the UK General Electon series has first been made available to Patrons who support my work:What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019

  • UK Economy - GDP Growth
  • UK INFLATION - CPI / RPI / REAL
  • UK Unemployment Fake Statistics
  • REAL TERMS AVERAGE EARNINGS
  • UK General Election Tory Seats Projections

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in