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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Tale of Two Metals: One WAY More Valuable Than Gold, The Other Historically Undervalued

Commodities / Platinum Nov 08, 2018 - 03:02 PM GMT

By: MoneyMetals

Commodities

Gold is the metal of kings, the ultimate money, an eternal store of value, an untarnishable embodiment of beauty. Gold is all those things. But it is not the most valuable metal you can own on a cost-per-ounce basis.

Often, platinum commands a higher price than gold. Lately, platinum has traded at an abnormally large discount to the yellow metal.


Metals investors who want to hold the most concentrated wealth in a single ounce bullion product should opt not for gold or platinum…but for a different platinum group metal called rhodium.

Rhodium is scarce and thinly traded. Frankly, it’s a little-known metal even among metals investors.

Like platinum and palladium, the primary application for rhodium is catalytic converters for cars and trucks. It is alloyed with platinum and palladium to enhance resistance to corrosion. Rhodium is also used in some types of jewelry.

Rhodium has quietly been in a raging bull market over the past couple years. Prices bottomed out in 2016 at around $600/oz. This September, they surged to over $2,400/oz and have remained there.

As impressive as that quadrupling is, rhodium still trades far below its all-time high from 10 years ago. From 2004 to 2008, rhodium launched from $500 to as high as $10,000/oz. At its current value of $2,425/oz, the niche metal still has lots of room to run.

Of course, the trade off associated with rhodium’s explosive price potential is that it also carries significant downside risk. This metal isn’t for the faint of heart.

Folks just getting started in precious metals investing should first build up core holdings in gold and silver. But more seasoned hard assets investors who want to add a high-risk/high-reward speculative component to their precious metals portfolio might consider rhodium.

The high-flying metal is currently available to investors in the form of one-ounce bullion bars. They come sealed and authenticated by either of the reputable mints Baird & Company or PAMP Suisse.

More options are available for the more popular catalytic metals, platinum and palladium. Bars, privately minted rounds, and even some sovereign coins are available to investors.

A Contrarian Bet on a Platinum Comeback

Platinum currently sells at a discount of more than $350 to gold and a discount of nearly $250 to palladium.

That’s unusual historically on both fronts. In fact, the platinum:palladium ratio, which came in at over 5:1 as recently as 2009, slid below 0.8:1 this October – its lowest point since 2001!

Platinum’s large discount incentivizes industrial users of palladium (mainly automakers) to begin substituting in platinum where feasible. Platinum has generally been favored by diesel engine manufacturers, while palladium has increasingly been preferred for conventional gasoline vehicles.

Ever since the Volkswagen diesel emissions cheating scandal, diesel car manufacturing has been in a bear market – bringing down demand for platinum as a side effect. Whether platinum prices have finally bottomed out remains to be seen.

Platinum won’t stay down forever, though. Its next bull market could be driven by a comeback for diesel, substitution by palladium users, a supply shortfall, or some combination of these fundamentals.

Most platinum comes from South Africa, a country now ruled by a land-grabbing, asset-seizing government.

Due in part to political risk and in part to adverse market conditions, many South African mines have scaled down operations or closed this year.

Total annual platinum supply of 8 million ounces still meets demand, but that dynamic could change by next year.

In the months ahead, supply destruction could lead to a deficit in the platinum market. Given the dire situation in the South African mining industry, supply will difficult to ramp up again when it’s needed.

Contrarian metals investors are positioning themselves in platinum at current levels with the expectation that when the market turns, prices could run higher for years to come.

At the very least, a bet on platinum again becoming more expensive than palladium... and again more expensive than gold, seems likely to pay off eventually. It always has before whenever platinum got anywhere near as depressed as it is today.

Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 "Dealer of the Year" in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason is a seasoned business leader, investor, political strategist, and grassroots activist. Gleason has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC, and his writings have appeared in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Detroit News, Washington Times, and National Review.

© 2018 Stefan Gleason - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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