Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Precious Metals Are Building Another Launching Pad

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Jan 23, 2018 - 10:50 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Commodities

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I think we can see it in occur in early 2018.

Since I have been on vacation for the last two weeks, and will be traveling again this week to LA and NYC, I am going to keep this update a bit shorter than normal.


In early December, we identified a specific 20.89-21.26 support region for the GDX, which, if held, could begin that major 3rd wave break out and rally we have been awaiting. But, since it would mean that this 2nd wave would have completed in an unorthodox manner, I noted that I would need to see confirmation that the market has truly bottomed.

On December 12th, (in an article published on December 13th entitled “Strap Yourself In - We Are About To See Some Big Moves In Metals”), I warned you to be prepared for large moves in the market. As we now know with the benefit of hindsight, the GDX bottomed at 21.27 (within a penny of our support) on the 12th, and began a strong rally through our first two resistance points.

Last Saturday January 14th, I noted the following to members:

This means we have now almost completed 5 waves up off the support we had been tracking into the December lows, wherein both silver and GDX bottomed within pennies of the support upon which we had been hyper-focused at the time, whereas GLD came up a bit short of its targeted support. So, wave (1) off those lows will likely complete in the coming week.

On Wednesday, just after 2PM, I published a mid-week update to my members entitled “Prepare For A Retracement.” Within minutes of my publishing that update, the market began the pullback we experienced during the remaining part of the week.

At this point in time, the market seems to be setting up in a break out fashion within the next few weeks. In fact, that rally can provide us with a stronger move than that seen in early 2016. However, it may take more consolidation/pullback before the market is ready for such a break out. But, as long as we hold support between 22.50-23.25 over the coming weeks, it would suggest we are going to begin a rally which could eclipse the strength of the one seen in early 2016.

It would take a move through the 25.50 level to suggest that a parabolic rally has likely begun sooner rather than later, with a break down below the December 2017 low completely invalidating this set up. And, to give you an idea of the potential of such a rally, the GLD can even reach its prior all-time highs within 2018, if we see the full potential being projected by this set up.

Lastly, I want to remind you that my job is not to tell you what the market MUST do. That is an impossibility. Rather, my job is to provide you the guideposts for how the market can react as long as it respects those guideposts. For this reason, I will never be right 100% of the time in my primary expectations, but you will know up front where those primary expectations become invalidated.

Moreover, these expectations are based upon market standards which apply approximately 70% of the time. That means there will be a minority of the time that the market will move outside the norms and standards we follow. So, before you decide to work with the analysis methodology I utilize, you must not only understand the tremendous value it can bring to investors in identifying relatively accurate points at which the market can turn point, but, also its limitations.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD & YI.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in