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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock & Commodity Futures Markets Analysis

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Sep 04, 2008 - 10:59 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1801.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1908.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


The September NASDAQ 100 was down 5.75. pts. at 1828.50 as of 5:54 AM CST. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1882.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1908.45. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1821.75. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1801.75. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends August's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1261.00 is the next downside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1261.00 would confirm that a short- term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1279.15. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1303.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1265.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1261.00. The September S&P 500 Index was down 4.00 pts. at 1271.20 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds were slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 120-03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 119-17. Second resistance level is weekly resistance crossing at 120-03. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118-19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-24. Overnight action sets the stage for September T- bonds to open 2/32's to 4/32's lower when the day session begins later this morning.

ENERGY MARKETS

October crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 108.86. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 100.48 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 120.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.57. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 120.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 105.46. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 100.48.

October heating oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 282.10 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 334.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 318.25. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 334.88. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 295.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 282.10.

October unleaded gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 268.99. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 248.85 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 298.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 283.41. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 298.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 260.82. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 248.85.

October Henry natural gas was slightly higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the July 2005 low crossing at 6.980 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 8.880 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.908. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.107. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 7.028. Second support is the 2005 July low crossing at 6.980.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this summer's rally, broken support marked by the 2004 low crossing at 80.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 79.14. Second resistance is broken monthly support marked by the 2004 low crossing at 80.48. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.53.

The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline, this year's low crossing at 142.900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.803 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.758. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.803. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 143.090. Second support is this year's low crossing at 142.900.

The December British Pound was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.7406 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.8096 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.8086. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.8399. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.7540. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.7406.

The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight extending this summer's decline but remains above the 62% retracement level of the June-2007/March-2008-rally crossing at .9028. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If December extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-2007/March-2008-rally crossing at .8762 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9148 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9098. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9148. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at .8963. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-2007/March-2008-rally crossing at .8762.

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 91.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.36. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.70. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 92.70. Second support is monthly support crossing at 91.80.

The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at .9388 is the next upside target. If December renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at .9053 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .9345. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9388. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9225. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9196.

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PRECIOUS METALS

October gold was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 822.30. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish warning bull's to use caution, as additional weakness is possible near-
term. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 774.00 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 822.30 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 822.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 845.70. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 790.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 774.00.

December silver was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.470. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the August low crossing at 12.305 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.889 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.470. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.889. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 12.550. Second support is August's low crossing at 12.305.

December copper was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 303.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 340.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 336.71. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 340.19. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 315.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 303.96.

FOOD & FIBER

December coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends Tuesday's decline and closed below the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.06 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.254 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews last week's rally, July's high crossing at 15.620 is the next upside target.

December cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.53. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 25.74 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at 28.05 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.

October sugar closed lower for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last week's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 11.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.10. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 72.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews last month's decline, monthly support crossing at 63.10 is the next downside target.

GRAINS

December corn was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates below key support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.47 1/4 then August's low crossing at 5.04 1/2 are the next downside targets. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.87 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 6.51 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 5.80 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.87 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.47 1/4.

December wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session opens later this morning. If December extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at 6.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.41 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 3/4-cents at 8.19.

December Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, last December's low crossing at 7.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.76 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 4 1/4-cents at 8.44 1/2.

December Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, last December's low crossing at 7.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.08 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

November soybeans were higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.81 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If November extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 12.04 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.16 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 13.74 1/2 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.81 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.16 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 12.29. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 12.04 1/4.

December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below key support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 347.70. The mid-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low, the reaction low crossing at 327.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 357.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

December soybean oil was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 50.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

October hogs closed down $0.90 at $68.65.

October hogs closed lower on Wednesday and poised to renew last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends last week's decline, the April 3rd gap crossing at 66.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's gap crossing at 70.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's gap crossing at 70.50. Second resistance is last Wednesday's gap crossing at 73.35. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 68.30. Second support is the April 3rd gap crossing at 66.75.
February bellies closed down $2.45 at $90.30.

February bellies closed sharply lower on Wednesday ending a two-day short covering rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, March's low crossing at 85.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cattle closed down $0.60 at 103.15.

October cattle closed lower on Wednesday and below the 62% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 103.54 as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 101.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October feeder cattle closed down $1.45 at $110.27.

October Feeder

cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday ending a two-day short covering rally off last week's low. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If October extends last month's decline, May's low crossing at 109.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. ______________________________

By INO.com

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