Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in the METAVERSE Stocks Universe - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 - 8th Dec 21
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap - 8th Dec 21
The Lithium Breakthrough That Could Transform The Mining Industry - 8th Dec 21
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse - 7th Dec 21
How to Read Your Smart Meter - Economy 7, Day and Night Rate Readings SMETS2 EDF - 7th Dec 21
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares - 7th Dec 21
INTEL Bargain Teck Stocks Trading at 15.5% Discount Sale - 7th Dec 21
US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend - 7th Dec 21
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally - 7th Dec 21
The New Tech That Could Take Tesla To $2 Trillion - 7th Dec 21
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Germany’s Grand Coalition Is Collapsing

Politics / Germany Dec 06, 2017 - 08:24 AM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Politics

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Germany has the fourth-largest economy in the world and the largest in Europe.

This country has been the stable center of the European system for decades. Amid social and political tensions that have torn the European Union since 2008, Germany has been the solid rock on which Europe has rested.


(I wrote about the origins of European geopolitical issues in my exclusive e-book, The World Explained in Maps, which you can download here)

It is not an overstatement to say that if Germany destabilizes, the EU won’t survive. Germany has not yet destabilized, but it is wobbling.

The Political Ground in Germany Has Shifted

One sign is the inability of German parties to form a new government since elections in September.

A reason for this is that Germany’s political reality has shifted. Both the CDU and the SPD lost roughly 20% of their seats in parliament in the election. The Christian Social Union in Bavaria, the CDU’s long-time partner, lost about the same. And the two left-wing parties, the Greens and the Left Party, gained hardly any.

Meanwhile, the right-wing Alternative for Germany, or AfD, gained 93 seats to become the third-largest party in parliament, taking most of its votes from the CDU and the SPD.

In addition, the Free Democratic Party, a traditionally liberal party dedicated to free markets with a minority euroskeptic faction, became the fourth-largest party after failing to win any seats in the previous election.

This is not an earthquake, but the ground has shifted.

The CDU and the SPD can still form a grand coalition, but to date, they have been unable to do so. There are, as in all political matters, many reasons for this, but the deepest reason is that the CDU and the SPD have evolved into effectively the same party.

They have governed together, sharing the same Europhile ideology and holding similar views on the role of Germany and the manner in which German society should be run. The two major political parties have failed to provide the German public with different visions of the country’s future, and different views on the matters that concern Germans, like the EU, immigration and social programs.

The Emergence of New Marginal Parties

As a result, other parties have emerged.

These parties are too small to expect to govern, and so they don’t necessarily need to hold positions that have broad appeal. Instead, they have carved out niches with views designed to bring together fragments of German society.

None of these parties will rule, but together they constitute the only opposition to what are called the mainstream parties.

The problem is that the mainstream consists of many lesser streams, and the subtleties of even the governing coalition have been forgotten. This is one factor that has led to resentment toward this political hegemony.

The marginal parties attract not only fellow ideologues, but also those who are repelled by the decline in debate between the major parties. The SPD therefore is being very cautious in accepting a place in another coalition government.

Germany needs mainstream parties that debate and disagree, not a hegemonic center that generates revolts from the margins.

A Looming Political Earthquake

Politics is seldom interesting from a geopolitical perspective.

Watching the personal ambitions of various political figures rarely reveals the underlying social realities. But we live in a time when politics in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and other countries reveal the deep social tensions that must be addressed.

The anger between factions is real, and bringing it to light is the only way to address it.

Germany is not Angela Merkel, although she has skillfully built a political center that claims to speak for the whole country. But Merkel has also created an opposition that is now challenging the center on a range of issues.

When a grand coalition ignores the dissenters or pretends that they are merely cranks, the ground under the coalition weakens. There is, in fact, a great debate in Germany over the country’s future on issues from the role of German culture to the welfare state.

A grand coalition brushes these matters aside, and the more it does that, the more the political system and social reality will diverge, until the earthquake inevitably arrives.

Grab George Friedman's Exclusive eBook, The World Explained in Maps

The World Explained in Maps reveals the panorama of geopolitical landscapes influencing today's governments and global financial systems. Don't miss this chance to prepare for the year ahead with the straight facts about every major country’s and region's current geopolitical climate. You won't find political rhetoric or media hype here.

The World Explained in Maps is an essential guide for every investor as 2017 takes shape. Get your copy now—free!

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in