Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Catalonia Has Already Lost This Battle

Politics / Spain Oct 10, 2017 - 05:40 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Politics

By Jacob L. Shapiro : Catalonia held its independence referendum on October 1.

Initial results show that of the 42 percent of Catalan voters who turned out, about 90 percent voted for independence. It’s an impressive figure, but not exactly an overwhelming mandate for Catalonian independence.

No doubt a significant number of Catalans want independence, but we already knew that.


The 2014 referendum had a similar outcome; 81 percent voted for independence. That non-binding referendum didn’t go anywhere, and neither will this one.

Here’s why.

Catalans Knew It Was a Long Shot

Catalonia simply does not have the monopoly on force necessary to even vie for control of its territory, let alone win it.

Catalonia has a regional police force of about 17,000 officers. Spain’s National Police Corps has more than 80,000 officers, and the Guardia Civil boasts another 75,000 Spaniards under arms. Catalonia has no army, no navy, and no air force; Spain has all three.

This was never going to be a replay of the Spanish Civil War.

Catalonia is not ready to fight a war, which will not change in the near future. Independence is rarely granted: Most of the recent centuries of political history show that independence usually has to be won with the sword after it has been declared with the pen.

The leaders of Catalonia’s independence gambit knew as much and decided to take a long shot anyway.

Once the votes were cast, there were only two outcomes that could have resulted in independence: civil disobedience disruptive enough to Spanish life to force Madrid to compromise, or international intervention of some kind, whether political or more substantial.

Despite the recent strike, it is unlikely Catalonia can mount such a campaign, even with Spanish excesses during the voting.

A large number of Catalans prefer to remain part of Spain, their reticence for autonomy due in no small part to their own economic well-being, which in practical terms means it will be very difficult for the Catalans in the streets to reach a critical mass.

The Catalan Government Failed

The strategy of the Catalan government, it seems, was pinned on the hope of intervention: making the conflict an international issue. In turn, this would let Catalonia generate enough pressure on Spain’s government to back down.

At this, Catalonia has already failed.

European countries rarely agree on anything, but they agree on not backing Catalan independence. The European Commission put it most plainly when it said that “this is an internal matter for Spain that has to be dealt with in line with the constitutional order of Spain.”

A veritable chorus of assents followed the statement. Poland and the European Commission have been at each other’s throats in recent weeks, but there is no daylight in their stances toward Catalan independence: Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and unity of Spain must be respected.

Countries with as varied interests as Germany, France, the UK, Croatia, and Serbia all see eye to eye on this score.

(Maps have long been a geopolitical cheat sheet for investors. Download an exclusive free e-book, The World Explained in Maps, from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and learn to decode the lines of maps to reveal the future of people and their countries.)

Nor is support forthcoming from outside of the EU. On this, Russia is of one mind with the United States, and Japan is of one mind with China.

Despite the lack of international backing, Catalonia’s regional president promised to declare Catalonia’s independence within 48 hours of the publication of the official results of the referendum.

But then what?

This Is Nothing More Than an Internal Affair for Now

History is full of empty declarations of independence, many of which have failed.

Catalonia has lost this round. Without international backing or a revolutionary uprising, Spain will use its monopoly on force legitimized via the Spanish legal system to quash the threat that Catalonia poses to Spain’s unity and territorial integrity.

On the flip side, Spain will sow the seeds of a much larger problem, because though it does not appear that there is a critical mass of Catalans willing to fight and die for independence right now, today’s repression creates tomorrow’s generation of young Catalans who will grow up to see Spain as an enemy.

In the meantime, Europe and the rest of the world are correct in their analysis: This has been and will remain an internal Spanish affair.

Grab George Friedman's Exclusive eBook, The World Explained in Maps

The World Explained in Maps reveals the panorama of geopolitical landscapes influencing today's governments and global financial systems. Don't miss this chance to prepare for the year ahead with the straight facts about every major country’s and region's current geopolitical climate. You won't find political rhetoric or media hype here.

The World Explained in Maps is an essential guide for every investor as 2017 takes shape. Get your copy now—free!

This article was originally posted on Geopolitical Futures.

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in