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Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Signalling Commodity Inflation

Commodities / CRB Index Sep 17, 2017 - 09:22 AM GMT

By: Submissions

Commodities

The $AUD Australian Dollar continues to strengthen against the $JPY, Japanese Yen. All the commodity currencies are strong against the $USD also. Below is a weekly chart of $AUDJPY showing a break of the downtrend, a backtest and now price moving higher. We had a yearly cycle low last June, so the next yearly cycle low is not due until mid 2018, so there is plenty of TIME for the $AUDJPY to continue to strengthen.


Why is this relevant? $AUD is a proxy for inflation, risk on, and metals and mining bullish. $JPY is a proxy for deflation, risk off and metals and mining bearish. Therefore, a bull market in $AUDJPY, which is what we have here now, is bullish for the metals and mining sectors, commodities and therefore commodity price inflation.

Further, the $CRB Commodity Index weekly chart below is on the cusp of breaking out from a complex inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a projection about 40% higher than here. This further the validates the $AUDJPY bull market, which is metals and mining and generally commodities bullish. This means commodity inflation is heading our way, which is precious metals sector bullish, given that real interest rates (nominal rates less inflation) will probably go negative, if not there already.

The general sector themes are:

1. Long commodity based currencies (metals and mining bullish).
2. Long emerging markets, especially China, Brazil, Russia and Vietnam.
3. Long industrial metals, precious metals and the miners of these metals.
4. Long Coal sector and Long Strategic Metals.
5. Neutral Energy Sector, Neutral USA Equities and Neutral other Developed Market equities, except Australia and Canada (commodity producers).

The current sector weightings are:

1. 40% LONG industrial metals and miners
2. 38% LONG precious metals and miners
3. 22% LONG Brazil, Russia, China and Vietnam

Be good. Spock

https://spockm.com

Passive aggressive market trader and mining analyst, with 30 plus years experience in the global markets, across all sectors, with a focus on mining and precious metals resource stocks.

© 2017 Copyright Spock - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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