Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Commodities Bull Market Sill in Tact

Commodities / Resources Investing Aug 29, 2008 - 08:33 AM GMT

By: Aden_Forecast

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe markets have been extremely volatile over the past few weeks. Investors have been spooked and many are wondering what to do, if anything.

For now, based on our analysis, gold's bull market remains in force. That's the bottom line. Even though there have been some wild swings, the major trend is still up and as long as that's the case, we recommend holding your positions.


To briefly update you on what we've even watching, following are our last two alerts…

Aug 18, 2008

After reviewing all of the technical, economic and fundamental factors over the weekend, these are our latest thoughts on what's currently happening.

On Friday, gold broke clearly below its 65-week moving average, which is at $819. As you know, this average has been very reliable, identifying the major gold trends since the late 60s. If gold now stays below $819, it will signal that the major trend has turned down and gold is going lower.

But equally important, gold is extremely oversold. This means it's fallen too far, too fast and it's poised to rise in the weeks and months ahead. The same is true of silver, and gold and silver shares.  Gold's D decline is also near maturity based on timing and gold's percentage decline. In other words, gold is at an extreme and the downside is limited. That being the case, we recommend the following.

Stay put for the time being and keep your metals related positions. It's still too soon to know if this is just a temporary, extreme break, which seems the most likely, or if this marks the start of a new bear market decline. We need to see more.

Since gold is so oversold, the extent of its rebound rise is now going to be very important. If gold, for instance, rises back above $819 during the rebound, then the break below the moving average would've been a temporary aberration rather than a major trend change. In that case, we'll continue holding our metals related investments.

On the other hand, if gold stays below $819 during the rebound rise, it'll mean that an important trend change is taking place and we'll either sell or lighten up on our holdings at a better price during the rebound. We'll then plan to buy gold again once it turns technically bullish.

As we've always said, we'll let the markets tell us what to do. And for now, they're telling us to sit tight. It's still too soon to act and today's $15 upmove may well be the start of the rebound we're referring to.

AN EXTREME SITUATION

Aug 20, 2008

Even though it's still early, we're starting to see some signs that the worst is probably over, or nearly over. For example, gold, silver, oil, the base metals, and some of the soft commodities and currencies are either stabilizing or beginning to bottom at extreme lows.

The same is true of some of the gold and silver shares, natural resource and energy stocks. They are all bottoming at extremely oversold levels (see Agnico Eagle as an example on the Chart 1 ). Several currencies are similar. At the same time, the U.S. dollar's short-term leading indicator is extremely overbought, the most in 16 years. These are further signs that these markets are now either poised to rise, or they're already starting to move up in the rebound rise we've been referring to. Keep your positions.

The gold price, for instance, is bouncing up from its extreme low posted on Friday. And while it's still below its 65 week moving average, now at $820, gold has reached an extreme D low in both time and price. Gold's fallen 21½% from its March record high to last Friday's low, and it's taken 22 weeks to do this.

 

This is close to the worst decline in gold's seven year bull market, which happened in 2006 when gold fell 22% from its May high (see Chart 2 ). Gold then declined for 23 weeks and it formed a double D bottom. For now, if December gold closes back above $820, it'll reinforce that the fall was an aberration and the bull market is fine.

As we write, gold is indeed back above $820, signaling that the major bull market that started seven years ago remains intact. That's the big picture and it's most important.

By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com

Aden_Forecast Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules