Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Eiro-group Review –The power of trading education - 4th Dec 20
Early Investors set to win big as FDA fast-tracks this ancient medicine - 3rd Dec 20
New PC System Switch On, Where's Windows 10 Licence Key? Overclockers UK OEM Review (5) - 3rd Dec 20
Poundland Budget Christmas Decorations Shopping 2020 to Beat the Corona Economic Depression - 3rd Dec 20
What is the right type of insurance for you, and how do you find it? - 3rd Dec 20
What Are the 3 Stocks That Will Benefit from Covid-19? - 3rd Dec 20
Gold & the USDX: Correlations - 2nd Dec 20
How An Ancient Medicine Is Taking On The $16 Trillion Pharmaceutical Industry - 2nd Dec 20
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Here’s Why Trump Won’t Pursue His Pledged Foreign Policy

Politics / GeoPolitics May 19, 2017 - 04:23 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Politics

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : For all the tumult that has defined President Donald Trump’s domestic policy, his foreign policy is relatively stable.

There are some notable differences, but what went on before is pretty much what is going on now—a surprise given the expectations.

Trump promised to disengage from burdensome commitments to other countries, shifting the risks and costs of the security of allies away from the United States.


He promised to enact policies that promote US national interests, which he defined as US economic security… not global security.

But the reality seems to be different.

Trump Is Pursuing the Long-Standing Policies of Washington

Tests to Trump’s campaign pledges came early. In most cases, Trump's response has been to keep prior policies.

In Syria, the Bashar Assad regime released sarin gas on a village. Trump regarded the attack as morally unacceptable, so he ordered the US military to attack a Syrian air base.

President Barack Obama shied away from doing even this when his famous red line was crossed. But Trump—in a situation where US interests (narrowly understood) were not involved—responded.

And then there is North Korea, a country that is not a nuclear threat to the US. Rather, it is a threat to Japan and South Korea.

During the campaign, Trump said Japan ought to develop its own nuclear weapons. In other words, he said that North Korea was a Japanese and South Korean problem, not a US problem.

But when it seemed that North Korea was close to deliverable nuclear weapons, Trump acted. This has been the definition of US policy on North Korea for several administrations.

And it is a vital policy in Washington’s relationship with Beijing. Trump has said that the US would make trade concessions to China if China helped the US on the North Korea issue.

This is a long-standing strategy that Washington has pursued. In fact, there has generally been more continuity than disruption in US-China relations.

The US has not shifted its stance on Russia either.

The expected warming in US-Russia relations has not happened. Washington has neither abandoned its sanctions policies nor backed off its commitment to the Ukrainians.

US deployments in Eastern Europe have continued. Larger air bases are being built in Romania, and troop rotations in the Baltics and Poland are underway.

Meanwhile, the US relationship with NATO remains intact. Trump campaigned on the notion that NATO should be redefined, but he has since reaffirmed US commitment to NATO.

Trump Is a Hostage to History

The countries that hope or fear that the US may soon change its course will have to wait a little longer.

This is the reality of foreign policy.

In spite of the wishes of presidents, the United States is part of the global system economically, militarily, and politically. Sudden moves—outside of rhetoric—are impossible.

The structure of the system forces nations to move slowly.  Economic relations are extremely complex and are thus resistant to change. Each move has painful outcomes.

The international posture of the US is even harder to change than its healthcare system. It is a posture that has been sinking its roots into the global system since World War II.

Altering this can be difficult if not impossible without harming US interests.

In the end, presidents are confined by reality. And the reality is that the United States, which accounts for a quarter of the world’s economy and is the largest military power, is deeply integrated with the rest of the world.

Disengagement may be desirable, but it may not be viable, at least not in the short run.

A hundred or so days is an absurdly short period of time to assess long-term policy. But the fact is that Trump’s foreign policy has been careful and conventional.

Aside from major wars like World War II, history moves slowly, and presidents are hostages to history.

Grab George Friedman's Exclusive eBook, The World Explained in Maps

The World Explained in Maps reveals the panorama of geopolitical landscapes influencing today's governments and global financial systems. Don't miss this chance to prepare for the year ahead with the straight facts about every major country’s and region's current geopolitical climate. You won't find political rhetoric or media hype here.

The World Explained in Maps is an essential guide for every investor as 2017 takes shape. Get your copy now—free!

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules