Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Early Investors set to win big as FDA fast-tracks this ancient medicine - 3rd Dec 20
New PC System Switch On, Where's Windows 10 Licence Key? Overclockers UK OEM Review (5) - 3rd Dec 20
Poundland Budget Christmas Decorations Shopping 2020 to Beat the Corona Economic Depression - 3rd Dec 20
What is the right type of insurance for you, and how do you find it? - 3rd Dec 20
What Are the 3 Stocks That Will Benefit from Covid-19? - 3rd Dec 20
Gold & the USDX: Correlations - 2nd Dec 20
How An Ancient Medicine Is Taking On The $16 Trillion Pharmaceutical Industry - 2nd Dec 20
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War

Politics / WW3 Apr 22, 2017 - 01:40 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Politics

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Central Asia is crumbling. The speed and extent of this leans in part on political and economic shifts in Russia, China, Afghanistan, and more. Geography is the main reason outside forces are shaping the growth of Central Asia.

Always trapped between major powers such as Russia and China, Central Asia is at risk of war.


(Download my FREE e-book, The World Explained in Maps, to get more insight into the forces shaping our physical and financial worlds.)

Central Asian Geography

The region goes from the Caspian Sea in the west to the Tien Shan Mountains in the south and the Altay Mountains in the east.

The ranges split the region from Afghanistan in the south and China in the east. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are mostly flat. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are hilly.

In the north lies the vast Kazakh Steppe. Kazakhstan shares a flat, 3,000-mile border with Russia. And like we wrote about in “Russia’s Strategy,” a border the country can’t defend.

Yet even Central Asian countries distant from Russia and cut off from China by mountains are weak. Since the late 600s, native Turkic forces, powers that held Persia (like Arabs and Turks), and the Chinese have all at some point run parts of the region.

Years of war and foreign rule led to the growth of weak states with deep inner soft spots in Central Asia. The region’s modern borders are due to Soviet planners drawing them in the 1920s and 1930s.

So, they are not innate. They do not quite show ethnic or national divides. For example, about 23% of Kazakhstan are ethnic Russians. Ethnic Uzbeks make up about 14% of Kyrgyzstan and over 13% of Tajikistan. Central Asia is a region of great ethnic and regional stress. They risk the unity of modern states.

They risk the unity of modern states.

Scare Resources Lead to Wars

Geography and Soviet infrastructure planning lend to ongoing stress with the five Central Asian states. The main stress is strong fighting over scarce resources like water. The region needs two rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya.

Under Soviet rule, the upstream countries (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) gave water to the rest of the region through a centrally run plan. This managed the use of a reservoir and water distribution levels in the region based on Soviet economic goals.

Other countries, in turn, gave energy to resource-poor Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. After the fall of the USSR, fears grew—especially in Uzbekistan—over upstream countries using water for power generation.

Scarce resources, population growth, and the use of energy and water to barter can heighten ethnic and border tensions. Especially in the lush and populous Fergana Valley. It is spread among Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Afghanistan Actors Threaten Central Asia

The region’s nearness to Afghanistan adds chaos. The US drawdown, plus an incoherent state, has let armed non-state actors to again rule Afghanistan. This then threatens Central Asia.

Afghanistan borders three Central Asian states: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The country is now trying to return to its factional roots. With the US taking out most of its troops, the government in Kabul is up against a fast-growing Taliban insurgency.

In fact, the government is just one faction among many. The region’s governments fear militants and violence spilling over. Also, Central Asian militants crossing into Afghanistan to meet with groups from the Taliban to the Islamic State working in the country—which we’ve written about at length. These militants could get training and arms that could be put to use in Central Asia. Central Asian militants are now fighting with IS and others in Syria and Iraq. They risk safety in their home states.

Geography is at the root of Central Asia’s battles. It is fraught with tensions over ethnicity, Soviet-drawn borders, and high competition for resources. Plus, this complex and divided area is open to outside forces. Crises in nearby countries cause chaos in the region.

Grab George Friedman's Exclusive eBook, The World Explained in Maps

The World Explained in Maps reveals the panorama of geopolitical landscapes influencing today's governments and global financial systems. Don't miss this chance to prepare for the year ahead with the straight facts about every major country’s and region's current geopolitical climate. You won't find political rhetoric or media hype here.

The World Explained in Maps is an essential guide for every investor as 2017 takes shape. Get your copy now—free!

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules