Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
The Stock Market Bear / Crash indicator Window - 9th Mar 25
Big US Tech Stocks Fundamentals - 9th Mar 25
No Winners When The Inflation Balloon Pops - 9th Mar 25
Stocks, Crypto and Housing Market Waiting for Trump to Shut His Mouth! - 27th Feb 25
PepeCoin (PEPE): Anticipating Crypto Reversals using Elliott Waves - 27th Feb 25
Audit the Fed, Audit Fort Knox, Audit Everything - 27th Feb 25
There Are Some Bullish Indicators in the Silver Market - 27th Feb 25
These Metrics Identify Only 10 AI Related Stocks That Are Undervalued - 27th Feb 25
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold and Silver Markets Brief - 18th Feb 25
Harnessing Market Insights to Drive Financial Success - 18th Feb 25
Stock Market Bubble 2025 - 11th Feb 25
Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability - 11th Feb 25
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets - 11th Feb 25
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: A Long-Term Bear Market Is Simply Impossible Today - 11th Feb 25
A Stock Market Chart That’s Out of This World - 11th Feb 25
These Are The Banks The Fed Believes Will Fail - 11th Feb 25
S&P 500: Dangerous Fragility Near Record High - 11th Feb 25
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump - 10th Feb 25
Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season - 10th Feb 25
Liquidity and Inflation - 10th Feb 25
Gold Stocks Valuation Anomaly - 10th Feb 25

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Crude Oil Price Decline Continuation

Commodities / Crude Oil Mar 20, 2017 - 04:23 PM GMT

By: Bob_Loukas

Commodities

I like this Crude oil decline, and to date, it has been a picture perfect Cycle’s development.  Members of The Financial Tap were already tracking that expectation in advance, and positioned well to take advantage.  But that big decline, which started on March 7th took many by surprise, judging by the extreme (Long) positioning seen with the COT report.  And if you were not already short before the move began, the speed of the decline made it nearly impossible to establish a new position thereafter.


I believe that might not be the case anymore and another opportunity is at hand.  We’ve seen a clear Cycle Low (March 14th) in my opinion, and that was confirmed with the rally after the FOMC last week.  I know it was only a three day rally, but the move back to the 10-day moving average is possibly all that we’re going to see, from a counter-trend perspective.

The COT report has improved somewhat, so obviously the “easy money” has been made on the short side.  But the report remains bearish, and only tells me that the process of shifting from excessive long to short is still in progress, and will take time to complete.  This also matches the fact that crude is now in an Investor Cycle decline, that process will be aided by leveraged longs capitulating and speculators picking up more short positions.

Interestingly too, crude oil sentiment is down, as expected…but still nowhere near the types of lows I believe we need to get to.  When we consider the bearish COT report and the amount of time remaining in this Investor Cycle, I feel that we still have some way to go before looking for a meaningful bottom.

To the weekly chart, where I see a lot of downside work left in that chart.  Now that this Cycle has given way and is in the declining portion, there is just no way it ends until it at least becomes oversold and touches the lower Bollinger bands.  That would be the best case scenario for the bulls.

Therefore, it is my expectation that crude will fall another $7, at a minimum.  Thereafter, it’s really anyone’s guess whether this ICL becomes a double bottom retest (around $42/$43) with the last ICL.  Or in the worst case, this becomes a rout/crash that can be compared to the 2008 or 2014 declines.  In that case, the downside over just the next two months is as far down as the low $30’s!

The Financial Tap – Premium

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to a real-time portfolio with trade alerts.

Performance

The Financial Tap is primarily geared towards helping traders and Investors become better.  We walk you through the process of Trade Setup and identification through the study of market Cycles.  There is an extreme emphasis placed on Risk Management and on preserving capital.

For the past 12 month period, the Financial Tap model portfolio is up 17.5%, without ever using options/margin and without ever risking more than 1% on any given trade idea.  The max draw-down in that 12 month period has been just 2.8%.

For more information and membership options – Please click to join.

By Bob Loukas

http://thefinancialtap.com

© 2017 Copyright  Bob Loukas - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in