Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold Price Setting Up Just Like Before COVID-19 Breakdown – Get Ready! - 27th Sep 20
UK Coronavirus 2nd Wave SuperMarkets Panic Buying 2.0 Toilet Paper , Hand Sanitisers, Wipes... - 27th Sep 20
Gold, Dollar and Rates: A Correlated Story - 27th Sep 20
WARNING RTX 3080 AIB FLAWED Card's, Cheap Capacitor Arrays Prone to Failing Under Load! - 27th Sep 20
Boris Johnson Hits Coronavirus Panic Button Again, UK Accelerting Covid-19 Second Wave - 25th Sep 20
Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike - 25th Sep 20
Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo - 25th Sep 20
Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins - 25th Sep 20
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles - 25th Sep 20
Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? - 25th Sep 20
How to Boost the Value of Your Home - 25th Sep 20
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Does Trump Have a Magic Wand? I Simply Don’t Buy It!

Politics / US Politics Jan 25, 2017 - 10:51 AM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Politics As Trump was inaugurated, it seems most people are feeling better about the economy. Even a more liberal analyst said yesterday in an interview that he thought Trump should raise the minimum wage to $15 to stimulate demand!

Seriously?!

A Bernie Sanders, far-left strategy in a Republican Congress?

How delusional can you get?


The problem, as usual, is that economists, analysts and politicians don’t understand the real causes of our economic malaise since 2007, including Trump.

It’s not primarily business regulations, or higher taxes. Altogether, U.S. personal and business taxes combined are less than any major country in Europe, or Australia or Canada!

The problems are…
  1. Slowing demographic trends (a factor even more prevalent in Europe and East Asia);
  2. And unprecedented levels of debt and entitlements (here and everywhere else).

And there’s nothing near term President Trump can do about either of those things!

I think Trump is setting himself up for a massive disappointment in the year ahead.

Since we’re not in a supply-side crisis like we were in the late 1970s and early 1980s when Ronald Reagan came in, those solutions aren’t the answer. They worked then. They will NOT work now. And who are Trump’s chief economic advisors? Larry Kudlow, Stephen Moore, and Art Laffer – all zealous supply-siders.

Instead, we’re in a demand-side crisis like what we saw in the early 1930s with global oversupply. In such a situation, cutting taxes will only create even faster growing deficits and debt, not investment in new capacity and jobs.

Besides, does Trump really think a Republican Congress is going to just approve of massive tax cuts and infrastructure investments that raise our already out of control public debt, just as the debt ceiling has to be raised above $20 trillion?

No way!

It’s been doubling every eight years in Republican and Democratic administrations and, at this rate, will be nearing a cool $40 trillion just eight years from now.

Debt bubbles always create over-supply in business and falling demand from excessive consumption and debt burdens. They also create bubbles in financial assets that will always burst.

Donald himself said we have a big fat, ugly bubble… what is he thinking?!

He’s walking into a world of ever-increasing geopolitical conflicts, increasing threat of trade wars – especially created by him – declining demographic trends and crushing debt burdens.

And you’re going to fix that by cutting some regulations and reducing taxes? Reducing taxes just shifts the pie from government to business – and larger businesses more typically.

Of course not!

All that will do is make that top 0.1% and 1% even richer and do nothing for the average worker that elected Trump.

I recently wrote to you about the jobs market, which is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. We’ve simply been hiring back workers that lost their jobs massively in the great recession, and now we’re nearly done on that at 4.6% unemployment.

Do you know what the natural rate of workforce growth is once we hit full employment? NEGATIVE into 2023 and then only around 0.2% after that for decades.

Since older workers don’t get more productive, we have gone back to just 0.4% productivity rates. That’s nearly as low as at the bottom of our last long recession in the 1970s and early 1980s when the Bob Hope generation was retiring rapidly.

Baby boomers have been retiring predictably since 1998. With that has come declining workforce participation rates. It peaked at 67%. It’s now at 62%. It’s heading towards 58% by 2024 – over Trump’s potential two terms.

So how do you create 4% growth from a declining workforce, with declining productivity?

YOU DON’T!!!

There’s no question in my mind that Trump’s promises will lead to the biggest economic disappointment this side of the Great Depression.

The only questions I DO have is how long it will take the markets to figure out this out for themselves…

Anytime now, Italy and southern Europe could default.

China’s massive bubble could blow – maybe even triggered by Trump tightening their trade with the U.S.

Or, what if we suddenly saw job growth drop from that 150,000 to 200,000 each month to just 100,000 or even much less? (Never mind that payroll tax data already suggests job growth is lower than reported.)

President Trump was inaugurated today. I sincerely wish him the best of luck. But I have serious doubts that he’ll last his first year without a major debacle and backlash.

At this point I would give the Trump rally through about July and then we could see one of those first, devastating bubble crashes that sees the markets down 30% to 40% in a few months.

I’ll reserve judgement on that until I see some divergences build in the markets, and small caps are likely to be where that happens because they’ve rallied the most irrationally since the election.

But I just don’t buy all the Trump euphoria. And am surprised at how many intelligent people do.

God bless America… or maybe that should be, God help America.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2016 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules