Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering Market Technical Excess Top Phase? - 18th May 21
Gold Watch Out as Price May Be Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Move Upwards - 18th May 21
Why the Demand for US Real Estate Licenses May Soon Fall into a Sinkhole - 18th May 21
Semiconductor Equipment Maker ASML Is at the Center of the Global Chip Shortage - 18th May 21
Could This Be The Hottest Investment Sector For 2021? - 18th May 21
TESLA Tech Stock Bubble BURSTS! Stock Price Heading for CRASH to below $400 - 18th May 21
The Most Exciting Biotech Stock Of The Year? - 17th May 21
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th May 21
Junior Gold Miners Should be Rallying – What’s Holding Them Back? - 17th May 21
Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
Learning the Financial Markets - 17th May 21
Is Stock Market Selling Madness About Over? - 16th May 21
Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
Budgies Birds of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Singing, Chirping and Flying Parakeets Fun 3D VR180 UK - 16th May 21
Wall Street Roiled by Hot Inflation Data: Is This REALLY “Transitory”? - 16th May 21
Inflation Going Stag - 16th May 21
CHIA Coins After 1st Week of Plotting 140 Plot 14tb Farm. Crunching the Numbers How to Win - 15th May 21
Tips to Create the Best Cross-Functional Teams - 15th May 21
Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War - 14th May 21
Are You Invested in America’s “Two-Hour Boom” Fast Shipping Stocks? - 14th May 21
Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
6 Solid Signs You Should Have Your Smart Device Repaired Right Away - 14th May 21
Ways to Finance Your Business Growth - 14th May 21
Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
How Much CHIA Coins Profit from 100 Plot 10tb Farm? Hard Drive Space Mining - 13th May 21
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind - 13th May 21
Legoland Windsor Mini land and Sky Train Virtual Tour in VR 360 - UK London Holidays 2021 - 13th May 21
Peak Growth and Inflation - 13th May 21
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic - 13th May 21
Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
India Covid Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh - 13th May 21
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
Gold Price During Hyperinflation - 12th May 21
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? - 12th May 21
Crypto 101 for new traders – ETH or BTC? - 12th May 21
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window - 11th May 21
GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market - 11th May 21
Apply This Technique to Stop Rushing into Trades - 10th May 21
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
CHIA Getting Started SSD Crypto Mining by Plotting and Farming on Your Hard Drives Guide - 9th May 21
Yaheetech Mesh Best Cheap Computer /. Gaming Chairs on Amazon Review - 9th May 21
Breaking US Trade Embargo with Cuba - Build 7 Computers in 14 Hours Before Ship Sales Challenge - 9th May 21
Dripcoin Applies New Technology That Provides Faster Order Execution - 9th May 21
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? - 7th May 21
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher - 7th May 21
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? - 7th May 21
How to Invest in an Online Casino? - 7th May 21
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How To Determine The Future Price Of Silver?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Nov 17, 2016 - 02:45 AM GMT

By: InvestingHaven


We very often get the question from readers how to read charts, and how to determine the future price of an asset or stock. Given the interest of many investors in precious metals, and lots of reactions we received on our future price of gold 2017 article, we explain in this article how we determine the future price of silver. Readers who are not interested in this chart analysis tutorial can consult our silver price forecast 2017 for our expected future silver price in 2017.

Silver chart analysis

We are aware of the stream of thoughts that charts are worthless, especially when it comes to precious metals, because the “metals are manipulated”. While that could be correct, and we tend to believe that price setting is influenced by large futures traders, the viewpoint is not useful. The point is that the only way to look at an asset is to analyze price behavior. Moreover, charts ‘include’ manipulative market behavior.

Charts have many variables including time interval, dimensions, aspect ratios, and many more. It is important to look at several time frames in order to understand short, medium and long term dynamics. In other words, investors should look for short and long term patterns.

Moreover, the cleaner the chart, the simpler the challenge to identify patterns.

With that, we turn to a weekly chart on 5 years. This chart shows a down trend in a clear channel. In July of 2016, silver broke out of this downtrend, a very bullish event. However, soon after, silver moved back towards that channel. If silver continues to fall, we can say the breakout was false.

This chart does not reveal too much additional insights. That is why we have to look at a longer term chart in order to get additional insights.

The future price of silver

As the 5-year chart does not provide sufficient insights, we turn to a long term silver chart. The key challenge is to identify important trendlines on such a chart, which investors can do by connecting sharp peaks and bottoms. Remember, 90% of prices are worthless, it is only a minority of less than 10% of price points which carry value. It is a matter of discovering patterns with these price points.

We see the importance of $21 as it connects three secular trendlines. So it was a no-brainer that the silver price would get huge resistance at that price point.

Given the direction of silver, which is clearly down, the key question is where will silver stop falling? What is the future price of silver?

We derive the answer to that question based on secular trendlines. One obvious trendline is the one that started in 2004 and connects the important 2009 bottom. It points to $14.50 as a future price of silver. We believe that price will be reached in 2017.

If silver does not stop falling at that point, which does not seem likely in our view, the very bearish scenario is that $9 would be the ultimate future silver price. We derived that price point based on the horizontal trendline right above $8, connecting two important price points.

Are Fibonacci retracements useful in determining the future price of silver?

Some analysts look at Fibonacci retracement levels to identiy the future price of silver. We do not believe this should be a primary method of analysis. We tend to believe that is carries some supporting insights, of secondary importance.

The Fibonacci chart of silver’s secular bull market suggests that silver is still in an uptrend as long as it trades above $14.75. However, below that price point, silver would be in a bear market. In all honesty, we do not tend to believe that statement, because, based on the above chart, silver can still fall to $9 and be in a long term secular bull market.

We are bullish silver on the very long term

Though we understand our focus on the charts, and, for some, this could be ‘too much of it’. However, price is the only thing that matters in investing. We could come across as silver bears, but nothing is further from the truth. We are bearish for 2017, but essentially we see a once-in-a-decade opportunity in the gold and silver market, and we must admit that we are preparing our shopping list with gold and silver miners. 2016 was great in the first months, but we believe that, after the ongoing sell off in precious metals, 2017 will be setting up for a long term bottom, and, hence, a great buying opportunity.

Analyst Team
The team has +15 years of experience in global markets. Their methodology is unique and effective, yet easy to understand; it is based on chart analysis combined with intermarket / fundamental / sentiment analysis. The work of the team appeared on major financial outlets like FinancialSense, SeekingAlpha, MarketWatch, ...

Copyright © 2016 Investing Haven - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in