Trump Election Campaign Blows Up Following Leaked Lewd Groping Women Tape
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 08, 2016 - 01:29 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The deeper one digs into Trumps past the worse things tend to get for his election chances. So it's no wonder Trump is failing to release his tax returns which would likely show that he is a FAKE billionaire i.e. probably has zero net worth or worse. Anyway the latest that the anti-Trump media establishment has been able to dig up is a lewd audio tape from a decade ago, and it really is shocking to hear! Especially so for the republican bible belt!
"I moved on her like a *****, but I couldn't get there. and she was married."
In reference to TV presenter Adriana whom he was meeting
"I better use some Tic Tac's just in case I start kissing her."
"You know I'm automatically attracted to beautiful - I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. Just kiss. I don't even wait."
"And when you're a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the *****. You can do anything."
The audio tape leak is having a disastrous impact on Trumps chances of winning more so than anything to date! Not even the tax returns come close to this! So all of the hard work done by Mike Pence in beating Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate has all been undone.
Whilst the opinion polls still show little shift with Hillary on 45% and Trump on 41%. However, the betting markets such as betfair had witnessed a steady fall in the probability for a Trump election win. For instance just prior to the 1st Presidential debate Trump had rallied to his best standing of 2.88, immediately following the 1st debate that had widened to 3.35, and peaking at 4.05 just prior to the VP debate which converted into just a 21% probability of winning the election, down from a peak of about 35%. Post the VP debate the odds had marginally shifted in Trumps favour by falling to 3.80. But now after the leaked audio tape, all that hard work has been undone sending Trump's betfair price to 4.8 against Hillary on 1.32.
US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market
| Date | Time (BST) | Hillary | Trump | Comments |
| 25th Sept | 1.58 | 3.05 | Trending in Trumps favour | |
| 27th Sept | 2am | 1.57 | 2.88 | Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate |
| 27th Sept | 4am | 1.44 | 3.35 | Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost. |
| 30th Sept | 3am | 1.45 | 3.45 | Odds continuing to move against Trump election win |
| 30th Sept | 9pm | 1.39 | 3.75 | Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds |
| 1st Oct | 2pm | 1.37 | 3.85 | Still little sign of Trump recovery |
| 4th Oct | 9pm | 1.35 | 4.05 | Trump continues losing trend |
| 5th Oct | 5am | 1.36 | 3.90 | Pence wins VP debate |
| 7th Oct | 5pm | 1.38 | 3.8 | Recovery continues |
| 8th Oct | 12pm | 1.32 | 4.8 | Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women |
In recent video analysis I gave several suggestions of what Trump could do to reverse his losing streak going into the second debate and where I warned of his achilles heel being his tax returns and the Trump organisation that lacked financial transparency which if revealed could blow his chances of winning the election as illustrated by the NYT story. Whilst step 2 was to stop attacking women and minorities which the audio leak worsens his standing in respect of.
For the reality of what a Trump Presidency would actually look like see -
My forecast of several weeks ago concluded who most probably would win the election to become the next US President, which I said I would revisit closer to election day, and which given what has subsequently coming to pass I will definitely be doing so.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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