The 1st of 3 presidential debates will be held in a few hours time going into which Hillary leads across a wide spectrum of indicators from polling, political pundits, electoral college forecasters such as Nate Silver who give Hillary a 60% probability of winning the election, and of course the bookmakers who have Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite with Donald Trump as a 2-1 outsider.

However, the odds on a Trump election win are narrowing going into the first debate. Where fore instance the Betfair market yesterday had Hillary Clinton on 1.58 (67% probability) to 3.05 (33% probability) for Trump.

Today, the latest odds are showing a marginal narrowing in Trumps favour with Hillary now on 1.59 to Trump on 2.88.

Whilst he movement may be marginal, however it further confirms the direction of travel in Trumps favour which means the odds could continue trending towards making Trump the favourite by election night and so could the polls also move in Trumps favour from the current 44% for Hillary against 41% for Trump.

However, as my recent forecast conclusion on the probable outcome of the US Presidential election 2016 pointed out that the political pundits, pollsters, and bookies could yet ALL turn out to be WRONG all the way into election night when the result could confound all expectations just as the BrExit result did in the UK. And so the american people could also be about to rebel against the establishment elite by refusing to vote for an establishment candidate and thus by default electing the anti-establishment Donald Trump. See my US election forecast video -

And also see http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article56651.html

A good pointer for who has won the 1st debate will be where the odds stand immediately after the debate. Can Hillary halt the momentum of the Trump train? Or will the odds continue to shift in Trumps favour, we shall soon find out in a few hours time.

My next in-depth analysis will seek to map out a trend forecast for the stock market for the remainder of 2016, so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in your email in box.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.